(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); 1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data

An analyst is presented with lists of four stocks and six bonds. He is asked to predict, in order, the two stocks that will yield the highest return over the next year and the two bonds that will have the highest return over the next year. Suppose that these predictions are made randomly and independently of each other. What is the probability that the analyst will be successful in at least one of the two tasks?

3. The attempt at a solution

So first off, I attempted to do this problem by interpreting what the "two tasks" meant, which I thought was (1) predict stock successfully and (2) predict bonds successfully.

so I think the probability that the analyst predicts the stocks correctly (P(A)) is

(2/4)*(1/3)= 1/6, since there is a chance of predicting 2 stocks right out of 4, and then 1 stock right out of the 3 remaining ones.

Like predicting stocks, the I think the probability of predicting bonds correctly (P(B)) is:

(2/6)*(1/5)= 1/15

Since the events are not mutually exclusive, in order to find the probability that the analyst will be successful in at least one of the two tasks, you can't just add P(A) + P (B)... you would subtract P (A "intersect" B), or the probability ("analyst predicts both successfully").

The problem is, I am not sure how to find P(analyst predicts both successfully), since the stocks and bonds are different events and cannot be calculated through permutation?

Otherwise, I suppose I would subtract P(A) + P(B) by

(1/6)*(1/15)???

Or would it be easier to find the probability that the analyst predicts NONE of the stocks/bonds correctly? And how would that be calculated?

Please let me know if I am going in the right direction, and how to continue solving this question, thank you.

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# Statistics probability help needed (permutation?)

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