DrStupid said:
Not if you do it correctly.
You can't solve such problems without taking the relative exhaust velocity of the ejected matter into account. It should be obvious that it matters, because the resulting motion of the balloon/rocket/..
must depend heavily on both the direction and the magnitude of the relative exhaust velocity. The equation ##F=\dot p## can't take the relative exhaust velocity into account, since the term that shows up if you apply the product rule (##\dot m v##) doesn't depend on the relative exhaust velocity
at all! Thus ##F=\dot p## must necessarily be wrong in almost all cases where ##\dot m \neq 0##, except those in which ##F_\mathrm{thrust}= \dot m v_\mathrm{rocket}## happens to be true by coincidence.
Here's yet another argument: If ##\dot m\neq 0##, then ##\dot p## isn't invariant under the Galilean transform ##x\rightarrow x+v_0 t## anymore since only a second derivative can get rid of the ##v_0 t## term. ##\dot p## contains also a first derivative, so ##\dot p\rightarrow \dot p + \dot m v_0## under a Galilean transform.
There's really no way to save ##F=\dot p##. It is just inconsistent.
The first law says F=0 -> a=0. That's not equivalent to a=0 -> F=0.
The first law doesn't even matter. It follows already from a many-particle description of the situation (empty balloon + water molecules) that there is no force acting on the balloon and the water molecules that are still contained in the balloon, since they are moving at constant velocity and the fundamental description ##F=ma## of the situation really implies ##F=0##. If ##F=\dot p## were consistent for a variable-mass system, then it would have to reproduce this fact.
stevendaryl said:
Actually, it occurs to me that there is one case in Newtonian physics involving variable mass for which it is true that \dfrac{dp}{dt} = 0.
Unfortunately there are some coincidental situations in which it works. That's the reason for why it is such a wide spread misconception that even some textbook authors get it wrong.
It should be clear, that if we have a microscopic theory consisting only of particles of constant mass, then any effective description of a composite system like a variable-mass system requires a derivation from first principles, i.e it requires to be derived from a theory with only particles of constant mass. So even if it were true, we couldn't simply postulate ##F=\dot p## for ##\dot m\neq 0##.