What can Bush do to gain back favor?

[pattylou]

About those poll numbers...and an increase to a whopping 42 percent...how did that happen?

I have heard that people are more congenially disposed to the president (and other political figures) during the holidays.

Combination of a general feeling of goodwill and a lack of attention on news events.

His campaigning is, also, no doubt part of the poll bounce. I've still been following Rasmussen and the general drift is still downwards, but he's been in the 40's pretty much all along. Yesterday was 43% approval, today is 45%.

 

[BobG]

About those poll numbers...and an increase to a whopping 42 percent...how did that happen?

Considering the substance of his recent speeches, it has to be his return to campaigning against Kerry. He reminded his supporters why they voted to re-elect him. Kerry's and Dean's recent comments were pretty easy targets for a campaign staff that has made a career out of attack politics.

I think Bush needs something more substantial unless he wants the next three years to be a steady downward slide broken up by a few brief positive spikes. Still, it's a particularly well-timed positive spike considering the Alito nomination and McCain's anti-torture amendment to the defense spending bill, and the Patriot Act are currently being decided. Of course, if you're talking about positive spikes that are still below 50%, then 'positive' is definitely a relative term.

The Christmas cards ( er, I mean Holiday cards) he sends out even meet with disapproval.

 

[Informal Logic]

Considering the substance of his recent speeches, it has to be his return to campaigning against Kerry. He reminded his supporters why they voted to re-elect him. Kerry's and Dean's recent comments were pretty easy targets for a campaign staff that has made a career out of attack politics.

I think Bush needs something more substantial unless he wants the next three years to be a steady downward slide broken up by a few brief positive spikes. Still, it's a particularly well-timed positive spike considering the Alito nomination and McCain's anti-torture amendment to the defense spending bill, and the Patriot Act are currently being decided. Of course, if you're talking about positive spikes that are still below 50%, then 'positive' is definitely a relative term.
The Christmas cards ( er, I mean Holiday cards) he sends out even meet with disapproval.

The core supporters (Rednecks and White Supremacists) no doubt like the attack politics, and the Christians have returned to worship of their almighty leader (no, not God--just someone with a God complex) for the nomination of Alito. I cannot believe Bill O’Reilly’s Christmas rants would include criticism of Bush along with the secular Satan worshippers.

 

[Skyhunter]

This is typical of the arrogance of this administration.

Dick Cheney: The White House power grab never ends. As Air Force Two ferried Cheney, his staff and the press back from the vice president's trip to Iraq and Afghanistan this week, reporters discovered that the electrical outlets they usually use to keep their laptops humming on the plane were no longer working. They did what they could by sharing a couple of functioning outlets they found -- at least until Cheney's staff seized one for the purpose of charging the vice president's iPod.

-- Tim Grieve

 

[BobG]

Finally, the solution to how Bush can win back favor - improve the economy!

It turns out that if the President's approval rating is above 65%, the Dow rises at only 2.6% per year. If the President's approval rating is between 50% and 65%, the Dow rises at 5.4% per year. If the President's approval rating is below 50%, the Dow rises at a whopping 9.2% per year.

So, that explains Bush's strategy all these years.

Wait a minute. We don't need too much of a good thing. If the President's approval rating drops below 38%, the Dow falls 2% per year.

Obscure Economics

 

[russ_watters]

Unfortunately for Bush, the thing people care about most in the economy - the job market - is already as good as it ever gets and it still isn't helping him.

IMO, the only thing that will bring up his approval rating much is a large-scale pullout of troops from Iraq. Or, if he gets lucky, bin Laden's head on a stick.

 

[SOS2008]

Can Bush win back favor? No. He'll be lucky if he can avoid impeachment.

 

[BobG]

Unfortunately for Bush, the thing people care about most in the economy - the job market - is already as good as it ever gets and it still isn't helping him.

IMO, the only thing that will bring up his approval rating much is a large-scale pullout of troops from Iraq. Or, if he gets lucky, bin Laden's head on a stick.

Catching bin Laden would jump his approval ratings. Pulling troops would depend on the situation.

Pulling troops out and having a Rwanda style civil war break out would pretty much cement Bush's image as one of the worst, if not the worst, President in history (notice I didn't say US history).

Pulling troops out because he was pressured by polls and other Republicans worried about Congressional elections and not having a Rwanda style invasion wouldn't be a great poll booster, either. Why did he keep our troops there so long if they weren't needed to prevent an all-out holocaust?

When he decided to invade, he staked everything he is on that invasion and it has to be a clear success - one everyone can understand as a success - before he leaves office in order for him to be a success (in other words, having the next President save the situation won't help Bush's historical image much). In other words, Bush put himself in a position where he has little control over success or failure. What Iraqis do will decide whether Bush is a success or failure.

If Iraqis elect people friendly to the US, both diplomatically and economically, and they bring control to Iraq, then Bush is a success. If Iraq decides it has more in common with Iran or other Middle Eastern countries than it has with the US, then Bush is a failure. If Iraq decides to become a theocracy and you see Christians being sentenced to death, then Bush is a failure. If a terrorist group wins in the elections, then Bush is a failure. If Iraq can't even form a unified government, then Bush is a failure. If Iraq gives up on democracy and a new dictator takes power, Bush is a failure.

 

[Astronuc]

the job market - is already as good as it ever gets and it still isn't helping him.

Well - it could be a lot better, and hopefully it will get better.

Another perspective -

I live in an America where there are fewer jobs now than when this President took office - the first time that has happened since the great depression.

Ecton Manning - http://www.wamc.org/ecton.html

http://www.nemw.org/employ.htm
Date . Employment (millions)
Feb 05 132,729.3
Dec 05 134,513.1
Jan 06 134,591.4
Feb 06 134,862.0

See also - http://planet.uli.org/Events/Spring03/downloads/Linneman.pdf - slide 5
US Non-farm employment was between 132-133 million in 2000-2001.

Little or no net gain of jobs during the Bush administration, and a net decline in median house hold income.

http://www.nemw.org/income.htm
Median Money Income of Households
Three-Year Averages
period . . income($)
2000-2002 . 45,222
2001-2003 . 44,697
2002-2004 . 44,473

Figures for 2005 not available until later in 2006.

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_income20050831


From Iowa State Assembly -
Iowa non-farm employment - peaked at 1,497,300 in 2000, with a recent low of 1,411,400 in 2003, up to 1,446,900 in March 2005, and now 1,498,400 in Feb 2006. So at least, Iowa is back where they were in 2000.