What percentage is likely to be infected in week 4 if N(3) = 8 and N′(3) = 1.2?

  • Thread starter bcahmel
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In summary, the conversation discusses finding the percentage of a state population infected with a flu virus in week 4 of an epidemic given that the percentage in week 3 is 8 and the derivative is 1.2. The solution is found using the "rate of change" concept and the "tangent line" approximation. The final answer is not provided as it is not explicitly stated in the conversation.
  • #1
bcahmel
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Homework Statement


Let N(t) be the percentage of a state population infected with a flu virus on week t of an epidemic. What percentage is likely to be infected in week 4 if N(3) = 8 and N′(3) = 1.2?

Homework Equations


Derivative EQs?


The Attempt at a Solution


My first(and failed) idea was t^3, since 2^3=8. but then this derivative didn't equal 1.2. I couldn't get the answer with my guess and check method...So is there another way I could try it?
 
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  • #2
You do understand that the derivative is a "rate of change" don't you? If the number of infected in week three was 8 and was increasing by 1.2 per week, how many do you think will be infected in one more week?

That is exactly the same as using the "tangent line" approximatin: Y(t)= N'(3)(t- 3)+ N(3).
 
  • #3
thank you so much, I don't know why I didnt think of that!
 

1. What do the variables N(3) and N'(3) represent in this equation?

The variable N(3) represents the number of infected individuals at the end of week 3, while N'(3) represents the rate of change of infected individuals during week 3.

2. How is the percentage of infected individuals in week 4 calculated?

The percentage of infected individuals in week 4 is calculated by dividing the number of infected individuals in week 4 by the total population and multiplying by 100.

3. What does the value of N'(3) tell us about the rate of infection?

The value of N'(3) tells us the rate at which the number of infected individuals is changing during week 3. A higher value indicates a faster rate of infection, while a lower value indicates a slower rate of infection.

4. Can this equation accurately predict the exact percentage of infected individuals in week 4?

No, this equation can only provide an estimate of the percentage of infected individuals in week 4 based on the given variables. Other factors, such as changes in population or infection control measures, can affect the actual percentage of infected individuals in week 4.

5. How can we use this equation to make informed decisions about controlling the spread of infection?

This equation can help us track the rate of infection and make projections about the potential percentage of infected individuals in the future. By monitoring these numbers, we can make informed decisions about implementing measures to control the spread of infection, such as implementing quarantine measures or increasing public health education efforts.

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