News Will there be a large two-face factor

[tribdog]

Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.

 

[BobG]

The Bradley effect?

Possibly, but not that huge of an effect. They don't have to hide it. As was mentioned in a different thread, "Muslim is the new black."

 

[Art]

The Bradley effect?

I wonder how much of the Bradley effect is a consequence of the Diebold effect?

 

[LowlyPion]

Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.

I'd say that the race card won't get much traction, or if it's there will be difficult to measure this year, because the Republicans have pretty much soiled the bed. Obama being upbeat and intelligent and looking like he can have an actual impact in helping the country get through the next few years looks like he is instilling more confidence than McMain's erratic performance.

I saw an earlier report that figured 2.5% was likely the race resistance difference this year. But I'd say the economic fears have swamped any thought that people have the luxury of indulging their prejudices this time around. And oddly I've heard little talk about Obama's historic possibility of being the first black President. My sense is that it has finally come a time in the Nation that it's become a big so what.

It's beginning to feel like it's going to be a Democratic tsunami.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.

No. I think people tend to rationalize the reasons, or lie about them, but readily admit that he won't get their vote. I made this point the other day in GD, and today Turbo posted this video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QIGJTHdH50

 

[BobG]

A reverse Bradley effect might be larger than a Bradley effect in this election.

Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say.

Even if the reverse effect is larger, the Bradley effect could be more significant since it mainly applies to Democratic voters (assuming most Republicans would vote for the Republican candidate even if race weren't an issue). Democratic states, plus the swing state of New Hampshire, showed a Bradley effect in the Democratic primaries. The reverse effect showed up in traditionally Republican states, which could play a role in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. It might even play a role in North Dakota which has a couple unbelievable polls show the state leaning Democratic (I still think those are outliers).

Some people thought Latinos would be hesitant to vote for a black President, but I think Tom Tancredo iced that vote for Democrats by making it impossible for McCain to stand by his original McCain-Kennedy plan.

In fact, Tancredo has probably given Democrats the Southwest (except for Utah) for at least a decade. I don't see other Republican Presidential candidates doing as well in the Southwest as an Arizona Senator and the only two Southwestern states with Senatorial elections will almost certainly go Democrat this time around. That's at least 29 electoral votes that will flip from a Republican baseline to Democrat and it will probably increase in the next census since every state in the Southwest is growing.

 

[Evo]

On a slightly different note, here is the article that I mentioned earlier where there is concern that Obama did much better in the exit polls than he actually did in real votes.

Barack Obama's tendency through the Democratic primaries to perform better in exit polls than he actually does at the ballot box has some media organizations nervous heading into Election Night.

Exit polls frequently overstated Obama's vote during the primaries by as much as three percentage points.

For the Obama-McCain contest, there's concern about whether some voters will say they voted for Obama but, for racial reasons, actually didn't.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gaESiwWi87LuPoUL8L4W-f2Opilw

 

[russ_watters]

On a slightly different note, here is the article that I mentioned earlier where there is concern that Obama did much better in the exit polls than he actually did in real votes.

That's also been an issue for Democrats in general in the past few elections. I guess we'll see, but there is a good possibility the polls could be very wrong this year. From Bob's link:

"The level of inaccuracy of the polls in the primaries was unprecedented."

Now that article extended the underrepresentation of Obama in primary polls to the general election, but it isn't necessarily true that it will work the same way.

I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.

 

[Evo]

That's also been an issue for Democrats in general in the past few elections.

Yes, that's true.

It's not over until the fat lady sings. Or the votes are counted. And then disputed, and then re-counted...

But I hope you understand Russ. I cannot vote for Palin. Had McCain chosen almost anyone else as his running mate, I say almost because Ron Paul would be just as scary as Palin in my book. Anyone that says he thinks assault rifles for personal use in Public Parks is ok, well, I have a problem with that. And damn it, he took that off the internet. Don't know why.

 

[WarPhalange]

Evo, Assault Weapons ARE for personal use. They are LEGAL.

And in case you freak out with "THINK OF THE CHILDREN!" I suggest you look at some statistics regarding assault weapons and their use.

 

[Evo]

Evo, Assault Weapons ARE for personal use. They are LEGAL.

And in case you freak out with "THINK OF THE CHILDREN!" I suggest you look at some statistics regarding assault weapons and their use.

Yes, I always carry my assualt weapons to family picnics. They should not be legal, but we've already had that discussion on weapons and it's over, move along.

 

[russ_watters]

But I hope you understand Russ. I cannot vote for Palin. Had McCain chosen almost anyone else as his running mate, I say almost because Ron Paul would be just as scary as Palin in my book. Anyone that says he thinks assault rifles for personal use in Public Parks is ok, well, I have a problem with that. And damn it, he took that off the internet. Don't know why.

I didn't ask, but ok - I respect your opinion.

 

[Evo]

I didn't ask, but ok - I respect your opinion.

No, it's just that I was pretty middle of the road until the last couple of months, the old McCain was ok. I think BobG has it, I think I could be a, a...RINO, turned DINO.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/3449/obamabillboard1smsx5.jpg
http://g.imageshack.us/img369/obamabillboard1smsx5.jpg/1/
http://www.kspr.com/news/local/30727454.html
At least some people are one-faced about their racism.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.

If it wasn't for racism, Obama would likely be six points farther ahead than he is now. If he loses, it almost certainly and rightly will be attributed to racism. Given the fundamentals, and given Obama's superior skills and intellect, and esp given that the Republicans have destroyed the economy, this shouldn't even be a race.

 

[rootX]

Little off-topic:

So, to be an arab is treated as bad and evil?
I didn't like the way they associate everything evil with Hussien/Arab .. and I haven't heard anyone telling people to stop this BS.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yes, simply using the word "Arab" is enough to scare our intellectually challenged. Among this same group, "Muslim" is a code word for both black, and terrorist.

Just as the Middle East has its extremists, so do we. The question is: Who owns the country?

 

[rootX]

Yes, simply using the word "Arab" is enough to scare our intellectually challenged. Among this same group, "Muslim" is a code word for both black, and terrorist.

Just as the Middle East has its extremists, so do we. The question is: Who owns the country?

It's scary even worse than them being racists against black, white, yellow, .. or whatever. I think America does have Arab community and isolating them is bit dangerous and unhealthy.

Like last time, McCain defended Obama but not "Arabs".

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Like last time, McCain defended Obama but not "Arabs".

Yes, I pointed that out in another thread. McCain inadvertantly [or not] suggested that Obama is a decent man, not an Arab!

If McCain gets elected, that sort of thing will certainly help in our foreign policy, don't you think? That's his experience showing again.

 

[russ_watters]

If it wasn't for racism, Obama would likely be six points farther ahead than he is now. If he loses, it almost certainly and rightly will be attributed to racism. Given the fundamentals, and given Obama's superior skills and intellect, and esp given that the Republicans have destroyed the economy, this shouldn't even be a race.

Yeah, see that's exactly what I mean. The amount of arrogance and the air of superiority many Democrats (and not just you, we've seen it put just as explicitly by others) have about this race is really disturbing. Here's a news flash for you, Ivan: your candidate is always obviously better (to you) - otherwise, you wouldn't be voting for him. Your inability to put yourself in other peoples' shoes and understand why they think what they think is your flaw, not theirs.

I mean think about it: the past 2 elections have been the same way here. Gore was great and Bush (first term) mediocre. Kerry pretty good and Bush (second term) awful. How could they possibly have lost? It must have been fraud, because people couldn't possibly have preferred Bush or his idology, right?

It is much easier for some to believe conspiracy theory than to accept that their ideology isn't as strong as they think it is. Obama may very well win, but it even if he does it is unlikely to be the landslide you are thinking it should be. And that's even setting aside the other racism factor.

 

[Gokul43201]

It is much easier for some to believe conspiracy theory than to accept that their ideology isn't as strong as they think it is.

Racism is now a conspiracy theory? About 10% of people even admitted to it in exit polls during the Primaries.

 

[GCT]

Obama has a two factor lead over McCain in electoral counts , if he should not become president by election day then this means that people have been giving dishonest answers on the polls , perhaps due to conscience , after all the election day is the one that counts. Should this huge discrepancy be the case the world image of the US as a stunted nation is going to be established especially in Europe where they already perceive us as a bunch of infantile mongrels. If the US continues to be influenced by these ignoramous bible thumping old - timers , I'm relocating.

 

[turbo]

I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.

There could be another reason, as well, though, such as hacked voting machines with no paper trail. We STILL don't have secure elections. Around here, towns give out paper ballots, and the votes are tabulated by optical scanners, AND the paper ballots are preserved in sealed boxes in case there is some irregularity in the counts. There is no reason that the entire nation could not adopt something similar.

 

[LowlyPion]

There could be another reason, as well, though, such as hacked voting machines with no paper trail. We STILL don't have secure elections. Around here, towns give out paper ballots, and the votes are tabulated by optical scanners, AND the paper ballots are preserved in sealed boxes in case there is some irregularity in the counts. There is no reason that the entire nation could not adopt something similar.

Or better yet you can use punch cards that fit in a booklet with ballot choices, and then have people punch out their choices with a stylus on a card that gets read by a card reader.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Racism is now a conspiracy theory? About 10% of people even admitted to it in exit polls during the Primaries.

Yes, the civil rights movement was a conspiracy as well.

 

[LURCH]

I think that race will certainly play a huge roll in this election...in Obama's favor. There may be a few people who will vote for McCain "because he's white," but I am sure these numbers will be insignificant compared to the multitudes who will vote for Obama "because he's black." If race makes a difference at all in this election (and I think it will), it will be overwhelmingly in favor of the Dem party. I'm not saying there won't be people voting for Obama because of his policies, or his proposed plans, but among those who do base their vote solely on the colour of the candidate's skin, the vast majority will vote for Obama. I am certain the race issue will help him far more than it will hurt.

Obama has a two factor lead over McCain in electoral counts , if he should not become president by election day then this means that people have been giving dishonest answers on the polls , perhaps due to conscience , after all the election day is the one that counts. Should this huge discrepancy be the case the world image of the US as a stunted nation is going to be established especially in Europe where they already perceive us as a bunch of infantile mongrels...

"Mongrels"? Now that is racist.

 

[Amp1]

True, RootX - intolerance is blind and ignorant for the most part, then it becomes malicious when it has some intellect.

Peace

 

[Gokul43201]

I think that race will certainly play a huge roll in this election...in Obama's favor. There may be a few people who will vote for McCain "because he's white," but I am sure these numbers will be insignificant compared to the multitudes who will vote for Obama "because he's black."

Can you explain who are the people that make up the multitudes that will vote for him because he is black? And when you say "insignificant", what kind of ratio does that imply?

Roughly 10% of the electorate admitted to making a race based decision when they voted in the Primaries, and the overwhelming majority of those people did NOT vote for Obama. And that was just among registered Democrats (and in some cases, Independents).

 

[LowlyPion]

I think that race will certainly play a huge roll in this election...in Obama's favor. There may be a few people who will vote for McCain "because he's white," but I am sure these numbers will be insignificant compared to the multitudes who will vote for Obama "because he's black." If race makes a difference at all in this election (and I think it will), it will be overwhelmingly in favor of the Dem party. I'm not saying there won't be people voting for Obama because of his policies, or his proposed plans, but among those who do base their vote solely on the colour of the candidate's skin, the vast majority will vote for Obama. I am certain the race issue will help him far more than it will hurt.

"Mongrels"? Now that is racist.

I tend to think that it will be a net negative, if only because those that will vote for him because he is black, without thought to issues, would be the ones that would vote for a Democrat anyway. Getting 85% of the black vote out as opposed to 80% may be important, but will it outweigh those that would have voted Democratic - their natural economic interest - but would choose to vote against a black - letting Race divide their vote. In short then those people that have voted for Bill Clinton, but won't for Obama.

I think then that overall that makes a bit of a headwind that he must make up in persuading independent whites on the issues. This he has apparently done to date, but the question remains whether the fickle electorate may yet be influenced to forget the negatives that McCain/Palin have racked up so far and tricked into believing that they have any policy except the perpetuation of their brand of special interest politics.

 

[GCT]

I think that race will certainly play a huge roll in this election...in Obama's favor. There may be a few people who will vote for McCain "because he's white," but I am sure these numbers will be insignificant compared to the multitudes who will vote for Obama "because he's black." If race makes a difference at all in this election (and I think it will), it will be overwhelmingly in favor of the Dem party. I'm not saying there won't be people voting for Obama because of his policies, or his proposed plans, but among those who do base their vote solely on the colour of the candidate's skin, the vast majority will vote for Obama. I am certain the race issue will help him far more than it will hurt.

"Mongrels"? Now that is racist.

You haven't been to Europe have you? I'm am not a European - although I have ancestry there - , however , I have lived there for a while. It is partly a seated belief that much of the US' constant tendency to do whatever it wants without regard to other nations stems from the deliberate ignorance of the people there to acknowledge their own history and heritage.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I am certain the race issue will help him far more than it will hurt.

With the exception of the last couple of elections, blacks have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats since the 60s..

As LBJ correctly prophesied when he signed the Civil Rights Act, that act cost the Democrats the white Southern vote for the lives of everyone present. Likewise, the Democrats have won the black vote ever since.

Why? Think about it.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It must have been fraud, because people couldn't possibly have preferred Bush or his idology, right?

It was likely fraud because that's what Statisticians at Berkeley and Cal Tech concluded after studying the results. It was likely fraud because the President of Diebold - the voting machine company - promised Bush [in a memo made public] that he would deliver the votes for Bush.

What's more, we have discussed this before and you know that.

 

[turbo]

Apart from fraud, the GOP will engage in voter-suppression in heavily Democratic districts, including but not limited to disenfranchising voters whose ID's don't match the information on the registrar's print-out EXACTLY. This allows simple transcription errors by the registrars' staff members to deny a voter his or her rights. "Wrong middle initial? Too bad!" The GOP has also constructed caging lists and will challenge as many people in these districts as possible, slowing the lines and causing people to wait hours, some of whom (who have to get to work, perhaps, or take care of a child) will have to leave before they get the chance to vote. We can also expect that there will be insufficient numbers of voting machines and/or ballots in minority districts, and the excuse will be "we never had this many voters before", ignoring the fact that any reasonable person would expect record turnouts in among minority voters.

Our elections have been plagued with such dirty tricks, especially recently, and the culprits never get prosecuted. The right to vote is a fundamental right, and it is increasingly under attack by the GOP.

 

[LURCH]

...any reasonable person would expect record turnouts in among minority voters...

What makes you say that?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

With Obama leading in the polls, the racists are getting angry and desperate. CNN was just running a number of stories about open and blatant racism directed towards Obama.

Here is one story
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/10/17/racist.obama.newsletter.kcal

Also in the news of late:

(CNN) -- Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha, a supporter of Barack Obama's presidential bid, apologized Thursday for calling western Pennsylvania "a racist area."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/16/murtha.racism.apology/

Should Murtha have apologized, or did he merely succumb to the pressure for fear of his job? Is it likely that having represented his district since 1974, he knows what he's talking about?

 

[Evo]

More on racism in the campaign.

Republicans allege that the Association for Community Organizations for Reform Now is engaged in rampant voter fraud, but they've offered no proof of such a systematic effort.

On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled an attempt by Republicans to challenge the validity of 200,000 voter registrations in Ohio, saying that the party lacked the standing to sue.

The Republicans had sued to force Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, to provide county election officials with lists of registrants whose personal information did not exactly match Social Security or driver's license data, a step that would leave those voters vulnerable to eligibility challenges.

Kettenring said that a senior ACORN staffer in Cleveland, after appearing on television this week, got an e-mail that said she "is going to have her life ended." A female staffer in Providence, R.I., got a threatening call from someone who said words to the effect of "We know you get off work at 9," then uttered racial epithets, he said.

McClatchy is withholding the women's names because of the threats.

Separately, vandals broke into the group's Boston and Seattle offices and stole computers, Kettenring said.

Since McCain's remarks, ACORN's 87 offices across the country have received hundreds of hostile e-mails, many of them containing racial slurs, Kettenring said. "We believe that these are specifically McCain supporters" sending the messages, he said.

The e-mail to the Cleveland employee was traced to a Facebook Web page in the name of a Baltimore man. It featured a photo of a McCain-Palin sign.

Kettenring said that the bulk of the e-mails had been either "flat-out racist" or had racial overtones. Most of the group's 400 members and about 80 percent of the 13,000 voter-registration canvassers are African-American or Latino.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/312/story/54386.html

 

[Astronuc]

Kettenring said that a senior ACORN staffer in Cleveland, after appearing on television this week, got an e-mail that said she "is going to have her life ended." A female staffer in Providence, R.I., got a threatening call from someone who said words to the effect of "We know you get off work at 9," then uttered racial epithets, he said.

Sounds like the GOP (or perhaps it's the McCain campaign) has become a terrorist organization.

As far as I know, Ayers has not threatened anyone in the GOP.

It seems members of the GOP are inclined to threaten those with whom they disagree. That's the modus operandi of terrorists.

 

[LURCH]

...any reasonable person would expect record turnouts in among minority voters...

Seriously; why?

 

[turbo]

Seriously; why?

Because activists have been registering voters in poorer neighborhoods at a furious clip. Why do you think that the GOP is hyperventilating about ACORN? These community activists are not scouring wealthy neighborhoods, and the GOP expects that the vast majority of the new registrants will vote Democratic. One way to suppress this new bloc is to say "we had 10 voting machines at this polling place last year, and that should be fine this year." despite the expectations that voter turnout will hit record levels. There will be slow lines blocks long if this happens, and many people will be disenfranchised as a result, especially those who who have jobs that they have to get to, or have children or elderly relatives to care for.

 

[turbo]

Some of the voting machines appear to be two-faced.
http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180251

 

[LURCH]

Can you explain who are the people that make up the multitudes that will vote for him because he is black?

These people:

...any reasonable person would expect record turnouts in among minority voters...

Not "economically disadvantaged voters," not "inner-city voters," but "minority voters." A racially specific segment of the population that "any reasonable person" can see will show up to vote for Obama. Race will play a significant roll in this election, alright. In Obama's favor.

 

[turbo]

Not "economically disadvantaged voters," not "inner-city voters," but "minority voters." A racially specific segment of the population that "any reasonable person" can see will show up to vote for Obama. Race will play a significant roll in this election, alright. In Obama's favor.

Minorities are heavily represented in inner-city neighborhoods, poor neighborhoods, etc.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

These people:

Not "economically disadvantaged voters," not "inner-city voters," but "minority voters." A racially specific segment of the population that "any reasonable person" can see will show up to vote for Obama. Race will play a significant roll in this election, alright. In Obama's favor.

You seem to be missing the point. Blacks always heavily favor the Dems. So the percentage of blacks that would vote Dem probably won't change much from a historical pov. What will change is the level of participation. As will I, yes, black people will take great pride in casting their first vote for a black president.

On the other hand, how many white racist do we still have in the country? The Civil Rights Act cost the Dems the entire South, so racism plays a huge role here.

The next question is one of cultural fear. How many people will simply be afraid to vote for a black man? These people aren't racists. Most are just underexposed.