8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[OmCheeto]

My bread and butter is working to ensure that this kind of failure doesn't happen, but more from the standpoint of the core and internals. The outside is more or less civil/structural engineering, and we have others for that.

I and others sitting in the US are wondering WT*! How could they have allowed this to happen? And I'm sure the Japanese regulators and TEPCO are wondering the same. The people I know in Japan are very conscientious - but I have to wonder about the institutional thinking.

Unfortunately, this will be another textbook case of failure in various areas.

I'm sure Admiral Rickover is rolling in his grave. He would be livid!

I'll second that, for what it's worth.

Somehow, I think he could see the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory" , 50 years before the term was invented.

Or perhaps we should go back even further, and find archaeological evidence of the first occurrence of the term; "**** happens."

 

[Astronuc]

The Navy does drills for those operating aircraft, ships and nuclear reactors. They are based on 'what if'. There are aircraft simulators and nuclear reactor/plant simulators. We'll have to add loss of onsite power, although I would think that has been done.

However, we have to wait until they get the situation in hand and into recovery before we can start getting answers as to what happened and why.

 

[turbo]

The Navy does drills for those operating aircraft, ships and nuclear reactors. They are based on 'what if'. There are aircraft simulators and nuclear reactor/plant simulators. We'll have to add loss of onsite power, although I would think that has been done.

However, we have to wait until they get the situation in hand and into recovery before we can start getting answers as to what happened and why.

The senior engineers and managers at General Physics were almost exclusively ex-Navy off nuclear-powered ships, including lots of sub engineers. Those guys were the most buttoned-down, detail oriented engineers I have ever known. When the DOE's problems at Savannah River became evident, our top guys were on-site in no time. Many of these guys wrote safety rules for the NRC and they were NOT impressed by the DOE - too sloppy.

I would be very comfortable with the Japanese hiring those guys to do forensic investigations on the incidents and re-evaluate their risk-assessment guidelines.

 

[hypatia]

Looks like they are keeping a eye on Shinmoedake as well. Eruptions are common in the area, but this volcano erupted in January 2011, the first major seismic activity on the mountain in 52 years.

 

[Proton Soup]

Tsunami Before and After photos

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm


the EDG failure makes me wonder if the real issue is one of inadequate maintenance.

 

[turbo]

Thank you for the link, PS

 

[dlgoff]

It, on its own, doesn't mean we shouldn't become like, say, France and get the vast majority of our power from nuclear. I remain happy to have a nuclear plant 5 miles from my house (caveat - there is virtually no earthquake or tsunami danger where I live).

I agree. And I'd give up my little spot of land if they would build nuclear power plant on it.

 

[turbo]

I agree. And I'd give up my little spot of land if they would build nuclear power plant on it.

My father's uncle sold the land he owned in Wiscasset so that Maine Yankee could be built, with the understanding that he could continue to graze his cattle on the unused property. He was very disappointed then the plant was de-commissioned instead of being re-built with new reactor, etc.

 

[Evo]

Those pictures are horrifying PS.

 

[rootX]

Tsunami Before and After photos

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm


the EDG failure makes me wonder if the real issue is one of inadequate maintenance.

Thank you for posting those pictures. All these http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12725485" makes me wonder how weak we are before nature.

 

[nismaratwork]

Thank you for posting those pictures. All these http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12725485" makes me wonder how weak we are before nature.

We're small, and meat.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Tsunami Before and After photos

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm

Thanks PS, unbelievable, JUST UNBELIEVABLE!

The picture of Fukushima Power Plant looks "unreal"?? The area in front of the plant is ERASED?? Did they not build that breakwater to handle tsunamis??

Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant 1975

 

[AlephZero]

It is a little late for remedial action to regain confidence. Such a pedestrian oversight is unforgivable!

I hear the voice of somebody working in a different industry here.

OK, I do civil aerospace not nuclear, but I think one thing is common between the two: it is never (well, hardly ever) the things that you DO know about that get you.

Throwing words like "oversight" around is nonsense, unless you have some solid proof, not a quote from some know-nothing on a news report. (I would have hoped the guy who moderates the debunking forum wouldn't need to be told that!) I would happily bet my own money that a group of experienced engineers sat down and carefully considered the best estimates of the risks that were available to them at the time, and their conclusions were scrutinised by a lot of other people before the plants were actually designed and built.

I've been part of enough critical design reviews (and a few accident inquiries as well, sadly ) to know what REALLY happens in those situations.

The fact that they were wrong is just hindsight, and hindsight is the ONLY exact science that humans have learned about, so far.

 

[Astronuc]

Thanks PS, unbelievable, JUST UNBELIEVABLE!

The picture of Fukushima Power Plant looks "unreal"?? The area in front of the plant is ERASED?? Did they not build that breakwater to handle tsunamis??

One can see the breakwaters. They just weren't high enough for the particular tsunami that hit. The before and after pictures on the oceanside of the plant are quite telling.

 

[nismaratwork]

Good let's not let this get derailed by facts, let's just spew our own views here without respect for the people who are dying as we speak under rubble. I'm sure that the people of Japan and all those who will be effected by this take great comfort in the tidings of all sides of this argument, pro and anti nuclear, and the 'wait and see'.

OR...

and here's a thought... take the pro/anti nuke arguments to a pro/anti nuke thread, and follow the rules you make.

@Astronuc: High enough or not, the sheer volume of water and force behind it probably would have overwhelmed them if it couldn't have ridden over it. It's almost as if they didn't expect the worst earthquake in their recorded history... oh right, they didn't. I think I'm going to take a page from root's and your book... you two ARE right... speculation leads down a bad road.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

One can see the breakwaters. They just weren't high enough for the particular tsunami that hit. The before and after pictures on the oceanside of the plant are quite telling.

This is 'weird'... maybe because I’m layman... but for g*d’s sake we are talking 'simple' rocks and concrete...?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Astronuc, please correct me if I’m wrong.

From a "layman view", it looks like the Japanese people had all the "bad luck" in the world...

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_I_Nuclear_Power_Plant" . Construction began in 1966 and reactor unit 1 was in production 1971, and was initially scheduled for shutdown in early 2011. In February 2011, Japanese regulators granted an extension of ten years for the continued operation of unit 1.
  
  
• When the earthquake struck, the newer reactors 4, 5 and 6 were undergoing maintenance.
  
  
• TEPCO has earlier been involved in security scandals:
  

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Electric_Power_Company#Scandal
  
  Scandal
  
  On August 29, 2002, the government of Japan revealed that TEPCO was guilty of false reporting in routine governmental inspection of its nuclear plants and systematic concealment of plant safety incidents. All seventeen of its boiling-water reactors were shut down for inspection as a result. TEPCO's chairman Hiroshi Araki, President Nobuya Minami, Vice-President Toshiaki Enomoto, as well as the advisers Shō Nasu and Gaishi Hiraiwa stept by September 30, 2002.[3], and the utility "eventually admitted to two hundred occasions over more than two decades between 1977 and 2002, involving the submission of false technical data to authorities".[4] Upon taking over leadership responsibilities, TEPCO's new president issued a public commitment that the company would take all the countermeasures necessary to prevent fraud and restore the nation's confidence. By the end of 2005, generation at suspended plants had been restarted, with government approval.
  
  In 2007, however, the company announced to the public that an internal investigation had revealed a large number of unreported incidents. These included an unexpected unit criticality in 1978 and additional systematic false reporting, which hadn't been uncovered during the 2002 inquiry. Along with scandals at other Japanese electric companies, this failure to ensure corporate compliance resulted in strong public criticism of Japan's electric power industry and the nation's nuclear energy policy. Again the company made no effort to identify those responsible.

  
  
  
• Reactor 3 runs on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOX_fuel" (MOX):
  

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_I_nuclear_incident#Reactor_unit_3
  
  Unlike the other five reactor units, reactor 3 runs on mixed uranium and plutonium oxide, or MOX fuel, making it potentially more dangerous in an incident due to the neutronic effects of plutonium on the reactor and the carcinogenic effects in the event of release to the environment.

  
  
  
• Fukushima I is one of the 25 largest nuclear power stations in the world.

[PLAIN]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9b/2011-03-12_1800_NHK_S%C5%8Dg%C5%8D_channel_news_program_screen_shot.jpg

[PLAIN]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/BWR_Mark_I_Containment%2C_cutaway.jpg
BWR Mark I Concrete Containment


Astronuc, do you know if BWR Mark I have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boilin...ems#Emergency_Core_Cooling_System_.28ECCS.29" (ECCS) that can be directly operated by steam and provide water without electrically driven pumps...?

 

[nismaratwork]

This is 'weird'... maybe because I’m layman... but for g*d’s sake we are talking 'simple' rocks and concrete...?

As opposed to degenerate neutron matter and pixie dust?

 

[Astronuc]

Astronuc, do you know if BWR Mark I have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boilin...ems#Emergency_Core_Cooling_System_.28ECCS.29" (ECCS) that can be directly operated by steam and provide water without electrically driven pumps...?

I don't know the specifics of Unit 1, particularly the order or sequence of events in the shutdown. According to the Wiki article cited: "HPCI is powered by steam from the reactor, and takes approximately 10 seconds to spin up from an initiating signal, and can deliver approximately 19,000 L/min (5,000 US gal/min) to the core at any core pressure above 6.8 atm (690 kPa, 100 psi)." It's not clear to me if that was an issue.

When the plant is completely shutdown, there is no steam, so those pumps used for cooling while the plant is shutdown, I would expect are run by electrical power. The site lost the connection with the grid, and the other units went down, so the EDGs would have to provide the electricity. They did so for one hour and then stopped, ostensibly because the tsunami compromised the fuel supply (did the fuel supply get flooded so they pumped water into the EDGs? or did the tsunami knock out the fuel pumps? or EDGs directly?).

We still don't have a clear picture of the sequents of events.



As for protecting against an earthquake and tsunami, every site is required to provide protection against natural events, including floods, hurricanes, tornados, fires, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, and seiches.

The bible for designing, constructing and operating a nuclear plant is
Reg Guide 1.70 - http://adamswebsearch2.nrc.gov/idmws/ViewDocByAccession.asp?AccessionNumber=ML011340122
Regulatory Guide 1.070 (Revision 3), Standard Format and Content of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants, LWR Edition.

Chapter 2 mandates consideration of seismic and hydrological phenomena:

2.4 Hydrologic Engineering

The following sections should contain sufficient information to allow an independent hydrologic engineering review to be made of all hydrologically related design bases, performance requirements, and bases for operation of structures, systems, and components important to safety, considering the following phenomena or conditions:
1. Runoff floods for streams, reservoirs, adjacent drainage areas, and site drainage, and flood waves resulting from dam failures induced by runoff floods,
2. Surges, seiches, and wave action,
3. Tsunami,
4. Nonrunoff-induced flood waves due to dam failures or landslides,
5. Blockage of cooling water sources by natural events,
6. Ice jam flooding,
7. Combinations of flood types,
8. Low water and/or drought effects (including setdown due to surges, seiches, or tsunami) on safety-related cooling water supplies and their dependability,
9. Channel diversions of safety-related cooling water sources,
10. Capacity requirements for safety-related cooling water sources, and
11. Dilution and dispersion of severe accidental releases to the hydrosphere relating to existing and potential future users of surface water and groundwater resources.


Somewhere I would expect to be a calculation or statement as to the maximum height of a tsunami. That will have to be revisited.

However, assuming that the Japanese authorities follow the NRC, and usually other national regulatory authorities have followed the NRC, they would have had the same or similar language for all sites in Japan, and the responsible architect/engineer and utility would have to consider protection of the emergency/safety systems from earthquakes and tsunamis.

 

[nismaratwork]

... And CNN is reporting smoke from reactor 1, and an explosion from reactor 3 of Fukishima... it shoujld be noted they predicted another hydrogen explosion in reactor 3... sooo... maybe this isn't bad.

Oh, and an aftershock MAY have produced an incoming 2-3 meter wave.


edit: Oh yes, and another 2000 bodies found in Miyagi prefecture. One of them might be another friend of mine I'd though had been out of the country! Ahhh... good ******* times.

 

[Proton Soup]

Those pictures are horrifying PS.

i used to think i wanted to live on the shore.

 

[nismaratwork]

i used to think i wanted to live on the shore.

I did live about 20 miles away from that for over 6 months. It was beautiful.

 

[hypatia]

nismaratwork, I hope your friend is safe.

 

[Astronuc]

The first four years of my life were spent in two coastal towns, one on the south coast of Victoria, Australia. It was a nice quiet place. There was a stone fountain that changed colours at night. It was in a park down by the seashore. The house was about 1000 ft from the ocean. I could happily live there again.

. . . .
While Nagatacho, Japan's political nerve centre, has united around the rescue and relief effort, criticism of the authorities' response is seeping through. A headline in the Asahi Shimbun blasted the government's "incoherent" crisis management strategy, accusing it of taking too long to release information about the problems at Fukushima nuclear plant and evacuate tens of thousands of people living nearby. "Every time they urged us to 'stay calm' without providing concrete data, they simply made people more anxious," the paper quoted an unidentified politician as saying.

The cost of the rescue, relief and recovery effort will be huge. Manufacturers have closed plants while the energy infrastructure, from closed or crippled nuclear plants to burning oil refineries, is so badly damaged that power companies have warned of sporadic electricity cuts in areas hundreds of miles from the epicentre.
. . . .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/13/japan-earthquake-tsunami-nuclear-crisis

 

[nismaratwork]

nismaratwork, I hope your friend is safe.

So do I, but it's not looking good. Thank you Hypatia.

@Astronuc: Beauty always seems to have a steep price eh?

 

[Astronuc]

@Astronuc: Beauty always seems to have a steep price eh?

It was a nice quiet corner of the world 50 years ago, except when outsiders (vacationers) came to town. When I lived there, there were about 200 people. The population would swell during holidays. I preferred it when out-of-towners weren't around. Yeah - that's selfish - but then I was only 2.


Meanwhile - 407 earthquakes above mag 4 since the mag 7.2 at 02:45:20 on March 9!

 

[nismaratwork]

It was a nice quiet corner of the world 50 years ago, except when outsiders (vacationers) came to town. When I lived there, there were about 200 people. The population would swell during holidays. I preferred it when out-of-towners weren't around. Yeah - that's selfish - but then I was only 2.


Meanwhile - 407 earthquakes above mag 4 since the mag 7.2 at 02:45:20 on March 9!

Fantastic... well... what more could go wrong except Godzilla? Really, this is becoming absurd in a sub-cosmic fashion.

 

[nismaratwork]

Damn...

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/13/japan.nuclear.reactors/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Good news on the clickclick front, bad news for those 6 people injured. Those are either some foolish, or more likely very VERY brave people who were there, especially as they suspected this was coming.

I would already be planning a sarcophagous for Fukishima, and damn it all. Clearly these are NOT the right reactors for this place...

...And again... if we had better (or ANY) means to store large amounts of power, and transmit it... then these plants could be elsewhere. FRUSTERATING.

 

[jreelawg]

I once spent two weeks here. If I could, I would live there even if it meant one day being killed by a tsunami.

[url=http://www.freeimagehosting.net/][PLAIN]http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/21aff14cec.jpg[/url][/PLAIN]

 

[OmCheeto]

You can almost visualize the plates moving: