We don't need to guess anything. In this problem, during the deformation, 3P is the pressure of the gas at the piston face, and, from this we have enough information to precisely establish the final equilibrium state. We can precisely calculate the work done by the gas on the piston for this irreversible process, and we know that there is no heat transfer, so, from the first law of thermodynamics, we know the relationship between the work and the change in internal energy. We don't need to connect the initial and final states by a reversible process to evaluate the final equilibrium state; we already know the final thermodynamic equilibrium state for the irreversible process by applying the first law in conjunction with the ideal gas law.