Jasongreat said:
Is there any proof that it is the CO2 levels that cause the temperature increases, and not that increasing global temps by themselves increase CO2 levels? It seems to me that the warmer it gets the more things would grow as long as they had sufficient water, if more things are growing then more things would be dying and decaying, which would release more CO2 into the atmosphere. I have seen a few studies that said that with increases in CO2 levels plants produce more so imo the higher production would lead to more carbon being released when the produce is used or dies, so it looks to me like even the effects of CO2 on plants could be responsible for higher CO2 levels. How wrong am I?
There are two separate questions here.
- What causes CO2 levels to rise?
- Are rising CO2 levels the cause of increasing temperatures?
The answer to the first is industrial CO
2 emission. This is confirmed by a wealth of evidence and is not in any serious doubt.
The answer to the second is that rising CO
2 levels do indeed have a major contribution to rising temperatures, by basic physics. There are other factors contributing as well, and the complexity of the Earth's climate system is such that we only know approximately how much temperature rises in response to all these forcing factors; but carbon dioxide does stand out as the largest contributing factor for changes over recent decades.
Here is a bit more detail on how we know this.
The cause of the current rate of increase in atmospheric carbon
Atmospheric carbon dioxide is currently increasing at about 1.7 to 1.8 ppm per year. Each ppm is 2.13 PetaGrams of carbon (a PetaGram is also a GigaTon), and so the increase is about 3.75 Pg/year.
The burning of fossil fuels is currently adding about 6.5 Pg/year to the atmosphere. The effect of the carbon cycle is to redistribute the additional carbon, so that about half of what is being added goes into carbon sinks in the ocean and the land.
There are several additional lines of evidence the help sort out how carbon is moving through the carbon cycle. As well as direct measures of carbon in the atmosphere and the ocean, two important supplementary measurements are the ratio of
12C and
13C isotopes, and the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere.
There has been a marked fall in the ratio
13C/
12C. This is because plants and fossil fuels have significantly smaller ratios, due to the preferential take up of the lighter isotope in plants. As carbon from deforestation and fossil fuels mixes into the atmosphere, the ratio falls there as well.
Addition of carbon to the atmosphere comes with a removal of oxygen; and different processes remove different amounts of oxygen. Fossil fuel burning removes about 1.4 mol of O
2 for each mol of CO
2 produced; but respiration from plants removes about 1.1 mol of O
2. Also, carbon dioxide is much more soluble in the ocean than oxygen. This means data from oxygen levels in the atmosphere, determined by the ratio N
2/O
2 can help sort out the sources and sinks of carbon.
There has been careful study of these measurements in recent times, as scientists attempt to sort out details of the carbon cycle. There's no real question that rapidly rising atmospheric carbon levels are far and away being driven by industrial CO
2 emissions; but there are open questions about where it gets distributed through the carbon cycle.
A good reference here is
From table 1 in the paper, on page 101, there are estimates of carbon sinks. Using the first row for most recent results by the authors, from 1993-2003, the following rates are indicated:
- 6.48 Pg/year carbon added by fossil fuel burning.
- 3.75 Pg/year carbon increase in the atmosphere. (1.76 ppm/year times 2.13)
- 2.24 Pg/year carbon increase in the ocean.
- 0.51 Pg/year carbon increase in the land.
There are further details in the paper, and the major open question being address is how the 3.75 Pg/year that does not remain in the atmosphere is distributed between oceanic and land sinks. The first two numbers are known quite accurately. Note that the land is actually removing some of the carbon from the atmosphere. Increased plant growth works to remove atmospheric carbon, not add it.
For your question, the bottom line is this. The amount of carbon being added into the carbon cycle from fossil fuel burning in the present is very large, and much more than the rise in atmospheric carbon. This, by far, is certainly the cause of rising atmospheric carbon levels in the present.
The cause of rising temperature
Carbon dioxide levels have increased dramatically over the last century and they continue to increase now. It is a straightforward consequence of basic thermodynamics that this leads to an increased greenhouse effect, with a "forcing" of increased energy supplied to the Earth's surface. There are other many other forcings that also play a part in Earth's energy balance, both positive and negative, but in the present epoch carbon dioxide stands out as the largest single forcing at work.
There is a thread for explaining more of the background physics on this, with plenty of references, at [thread=307685]Estimating the impact of CO2 on global mean temperature[/thread].
What is uncertain
There are, of course, lots of open questions and uncertainties in this whole topic.
It's quite definite that CO
2 levels in the atmosphere are rising rapidly, and that this is caused by industrial emissions.
There are significant open questions about how the extra carbon being added gets redistributed through the carbon cycle; and in particular how much is ending up in the ocean and how much in terrestrial carbon sinks.
It's quite definite that increased CO
2 levels in the atmosphere give a significant forcing to drive increased temperatures; and indeed the forcing involved is known quite accurately.
There are significant open questions about other less well understood forcings that are at work; but it is highly unlikely that there is any unknown forcing of a comparable magnitude to the greenhouse forcing which has escaped everyone's notice.
As well as this, there are very significant open questions about the response of the Earth to forcings. The amount of temperature increase for a forcing is a consequence of climate sensitivity, which is known only approximately.
Felicitations -- sylas