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## Main Question or Discussion Point

I need to quantify the statistical significance of how much a model deviates from a given set of data points, and I cannot do a fit.

Let's say the model is a one-parameter description of some time dependent quantity f_a(t). I have data points at n different times including error bars, so p

I want to know how far off a couple models with either a = a

It seems difficult to express my problem, I hope it became clear enough. All I am asking for is a hint in the right direction, so if you know some relevant reference, I can just get it in the library. I already calculated the likelihood L(a) but don't really know how to proceed.

Thanks.

Let's say the model is a one-parameter description of some time dependent quantity f_a(t). I have data points at n different times including error bars, so p

_{i}= {t_{i}, f_{a}(t_{i}), sigma_{i}}. The reason I cannot do a fit is that the data is actually the predicted errors for some fiducial value a_0, and the fit would obviously just find a = a_{0}.I want to know how far off a couple models with either a = a

_{1}or a = a_{2}are. So in other words, how well does f_{a1}(t) fit the data points p_{i}? Can I rule it out on some confidence level?It seems difficult to express my problem, I hope it became clear enough. All I am asking for is a hint in the right direction, so if you know some relevant reference, I can just get it in the library. I already calculated the likelihood L(a) but don't really know how to proceed.

Thanks.