COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

At the time Italy had found 900 cases they had 20 deaths. Germany has found 1200 cases, but only two deaths (both from today). I don't think Germans live that much healthier. Okay, Italy had a couple of older patients early on, but it's still a big difference. Most likely it's a better test coverage.

What happens if you want to transfer from one house to another 10 blocks away?

Then you do that. It's a travel restriction (and a ban of events with large crowds), not a restriction on any movement.
Here is BBC's article

 

[morrobay]

I don’t know how to interpret the phylogeny map perhaps but it seems to me that the virus is most closely related to bat and civet strains rather than the pangolin. The pangolin strain is off on its own branch?

How does a pangolin catch something from a bat?

This is a wet market in thailand. The venders do very little cleaning . So a pathogen can easily transfer anywhere in this environment. For example note that blue plastic mesh used to weigh the seafood. Most of the mesh is black from never being cleaned.

 

[atyy]

Germany has found 1200 cases, but only two deaths (both from today). I don't think Germans live that much healthier.

Were their ages and health conditions announced? I remember an article about one of the early German cases, a quite young guy who needed to be put on a lung machine, but it didn't mention whether he had other health problems, nor whether he survived: https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...at-all-a-d91de996-0705-437d-8706-5682e8c0cbee (citing the article mainly for its description, it says Germany is not well prepared, but that doesn't seem obviously true to an outsider like me)

Edit: New York Times reports "No deaths of people with the virus were reported in Germany before the first two announced Monday: an 89-year-old in the western city of Essen and a 78-year-old man in Heinsberg county near the Dutch border. Both locations are in North Rhine-Westphalia state, which accounts for 484 of the 1,112 infections confirmed in Germany to date. ...
The 79-year-old man who died in Heinsberg, where a large cluster of cases has been linked to traditionally raucous German carnival celebrations last month, had numerous underlying health problems including diabetes and heart trouble, said Stephan Pusch, who heads the county administration. "
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/09/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-germany.html

 

[morrobay]

Time to lighten up. Bangkok style

 

[chirhone]

We were being comforted by local TV that there is nothing to fear. Most would only suffer slight runny nose and cough like common colds. Only the elderly and those with weak immune system can suffer.

Do you know someone with strong immune system yet succumb to the disease?

Also I think there is overreaction worldwide. Do you know that pollution kills 7 million people every year? This would make the COVID-19 pale in comparision. Death won't even reach a million.

https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution#tab=tab_1

After the dusts (or virus) settle. We must focus on pollutions. This COVID-19 thing will only give us greater awareness for stronger immune system and make us health conscious (mind and body).

 

[chirhone]

Here is question about test kits. First. Our department of health has finally admitted there was underreporting of cases because of our lack of test kits:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newsin...ional-underreporting-of-coronavirus-cases/amp

So we produced locally made test kits.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/12391...Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1583808169

What must be standards in test kits. Our worry is it can produce false negative. Are test kits made in USA only for USA and test kits for south korea only for south korea? Can't any nation sell us extra to avoid underreporting?

 

[kadiot]

Here is question about test kits. First. Our department of health has finally admitted there was underreporting of cases because of our lack of test kits:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newsin...ional-underreporting-of-coronavirus-cases/amp

So we produced locally made test kits.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/12391...Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1583808169

What must be standards in test kits. Our worry is it can produce false negative. Are test kits made in USA only for USA and test kits for south korea only for south korea? Can't any nation sell us extra to avoid underreporting?

At least, Early Detection Protocol is now available in the Philippines.

Singapore developed new test kits. In 3 hours... results are out! Excellent!

I wonder if SG will sell it and at what cost. Sometimes some patients will need to use up more than one test kit. Example, a PUI may be negative on day 3, 5, and 7 then turns positive on day 10. Then retest on day 14 to see if negative already. If not, then retest until 2 negatives. Let’s say one test kit is around 5k Philippine Peso (that’s the average cost of a test kit), that would mean around 5 test kits per patient or 25k. So that means the 2000 test kits are good for around 400-500 people only. That’s why it's a goos news that we were able to developed our own. Because other countries may have, but they may not be selling it because they need it themselves. If we will wait for donated ones, it may take awhile.

 

[atyy]

Do you know someone with strong immune system yet succumb to the disease?

There are probably some "normal healthy folks" who have severe disease. The following paper says that about 4.5% of people had illness that was severe enough to require intensive care even though they did not have hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, malignancy and immunodeficiency

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027664v1
The composite endpoint was documented in 77 (19.3%) of patients who had at least one comorbidity as opposed to 54 (4.5%) patients without comorbidities (P<0.001)

 

[chemisttree]

View attachment 258420
This is a wet market in thailand. The venders do very little cleaning . So a pathogen can easily transfer anywhere in this environment. For example note that blue plastic mesh used to weigh the seafood. Most of the mesh is black from never being cleaned.

Are you saying it transferred from a dead bat to pangolin meat? All I see in the picture is animal corpses.

 

[chirhone]

At least, Early Detection Protocol is now available in the Philippines.

Singapore developed new test kits. In 3 hours... results are out! Excellent!

I wonder if SG will sell it and at what cost. Sometimes some patients will need to use up more than one test kit. Example, a PUI may be negative on day 3, 5, and 7 then turns positive on day 10. Then retest on day 14 to see if negative already. If not, then retest until 2 negatives. Let’s say one test kit is around 5k Philippine Peso (that’s the average cost of a test kit), that would mean around 5 test kits per patient or 25k. So that means the 2000 test kits are good for around 400-500 people only. That’s why it's a goos news that we were able to developed our own. Because other countries may have, but they may not be selling it because they need it themselves. If we will wait for donated ones, it may take awhile.

What countries have extra test kits now.

We can trust the locally produced ones?

I wonder how they acquire test kits in very poor countries like south africa?

The obvious victims of this are the elderly, parents, grandparents, etc.

 

[kadiot]

We can trust the locally produced ones?

I don't trust much after they approved Dengvaxia vaccine and several children died. Good thing DOH has permanently revoked the certificates of product registration (CPRs) of the controversial Dengvaxia anti-dengue vaccine manufactured by Sanofi Pasteur. Anyway, FDA approves UP NIH test kits for Coronavirus infection through a certification of exemption. It's just a test kit. Not a vaccine.

 

[morrobay]

Are you saying it transferred from a dead bat to pangolin meat? All I see in the picture is animal corpses.

No only saying that a wet market environment that is not sanitary is conducive to pathogen transfers in general. There are no bats or pangolins in this market. If the virus in China transferred between the two outside of a wet market I would not speculate .

 

[mfb]

Death won't even reach a million.

We'll see.

 

[DennisN]

Here's an interactive worldwide map which gets continually updated with confirmed cases, recoveries and deaths:

• Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by CSSE at Johns Hopkins University

(it is one of the main sources that the Wikipedia page uses for its numbers)

 

[chemisttree]

No only saying that a wet market environment that is not sanitary is conducive to pathogen transfers in general. There are no bats or pangolins in this market. If the virus in China transferred between the two outside of a wet market I would not speculate .

I think anyone handling an infected {insert animal name} would risk infection whether it was in a wet market or somewhere else.

 

[kadiot]

To put things in perspective, this is how Covid-19 compares with other viruses in terms of transmission.

 

[homeylova223]

What would Issac Newton think about viruses, and illnesses based on his research.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Here is an article summarizing some of the characteristics of those infected in China: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130. While women have slightly lower mortality, they are by no means spared. Children however, do seem to exhibit very low mortality for unknown reasons (for a discussion of the issue in the popular press see )

Here's an article which discusses some of the potential reasons why the virus shows higher mortality in men, including a higher prevalence of smoking in men and differences in immune responses between the sexes: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/health/coronavirus-men-women.html

Interesting article, especially the link between a higher prevalence of smoking in men in China (which may not necessarily be true for other countries) and its link to greater mortality rates for COVID-19.

I am curious about the differences in immune responses between the sexes. In particular, I wonder if the differences in immune responses may be due to a greater number of older men with pre-existing or co-morbid medical conditions (e.g. heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure) which likely will have an impact on immune responses, as was suggested in the following article below.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...n-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

[BillTre]

Mask vs. Beard:

Masks will not work well if the mask-face seal is compromised by facial hair.
I like the names for the different hair styles.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Interesting article, especially the link between a higher prevalence of smoking in men in China (which may not necessarily be true for other countries) and its link to greater mortality rates for COVID-19.

I am curious about the differences in immune responses between the sexes. In particular, I wonder if the differences in immune responses may be due to a greater number of older men with pre-existing or co-morbid medical conditions (e.g. heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure) which likely will have an impact on immune responses, as was suggested in the following article below.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...n-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

Higher rates of certain medical conditions in men could certainly contribute to the differences in immune responses between the sexes. However, the NYT piece also notes higher rates of autoimmune disease in women ("Nearly 80 percent of those with autoimmune diseases are women, Dr. Clayton noted."), which could suggest some underlying biological differences between immunity in men and women.

 

[BillTre]

A NY Times interview with a mathematician who studies virus spread.
He details how the stats should be done and provides some interesting rules of thumb and back of the envelope, such as:

One signal to watch out for is if the first case in an area is a death or a severe case, because that suggests you had a lot of community transmission already. As a back of the envelope calculation, suppose the fatality rate for cases is about 1 percent, which is plausible. If you’ve got a death, then that person probably became ill about three weeks ago. That means you probably had about 100 cases three weeks ago, in reality. In that subsequent three weeks, that number could well have doubled, then doubled, then doubled again. So you’re currently looking at 500 cases, maybe a thousand cases.

 

[Jarvis323]

What would Issac Newton think about viruses, and illnesses based on his research.

Probably nothing interesting. It took over 200 years since Isaac Newton before science recognized the existence of germs. Newton probably accredited illness to acts of god, demons, or the occult or something like that.

It's actually kind of an eye opening story how germ theory started. The first scientist to challenge the dogma was Ignaz Semmelweis in the mid 1800's who promoted hand washing as a means to prevent infection. For that, the mainstream scientific community shunned him, and drove him into a mental institution. They weren't going to take this radical, crazy, paranoid, blasphemous idea that invisible things are floating around infecting people.

I use this story to remind myself not to take mainstream scientific views for granted. The fact is, it's made up of the same species that not long ago held that hand washing and germs were pseudo-scientific crack-pottery.

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article...got-one-19th-century-doctor-institutionalized

 

[anorlunda]

To put things in perspective, this is how Covid-19 compares with other viruses in terms of transmission.

The factor is called R0 (basic reproduction number). Estimates from the 1918 Spanish Flu were R0=2 to 3.

Several sources say we have no reliable number yet on COVID19, but the following is from the CDC.

Reproduction Number and Attack Rates
The number of secondary cases resulting from a single initial case (reproduction number, R0) (Appendix reference 74) ranges widely for MERS-CoV, e.g., from 8.1 in the South Korea outbreak, compared with an overall R0 of 0.45 in Saudi Arabia (Appendix reference 74). Superspreading events, which generally describe a single MERS-CoV case epidemiologically linked to >5 subsequent cases, have been frequently described, particularly in healthcare-associated outbreaks (Appendix references 55,56). R0 estimates, however, can vary depending on numerous biologic, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors, and must be interpreted with caution (Appendix reference 75). Most studies estimating R0 across multiple areas, or at the end stage of an outbreak, result in estimates of R0<1, consistent with the knowledge that the virus does not continue to circulate in humans and that outbreaks are eventually contained. A wide range in published attack rates (the proportion of exposed persons who are infected) has also been reported (Appendix reference 74).

WHO says:

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented.

Wikipedia says: R0=2.2 to 3.9

To interpret the significance of R0, consider starting with one case, then secondary, then tertiary, ..., up to N stages away. Starting from one person, and N generations of infection, the number of people infected will be R0^N.

The extremes from that are all over the map, so until we know better all outcomes are possible, from almost nothing, to everyone on the planet getting it. That's not very helpful. The CDC source above says that they expect the final estimate will show R0<1. That's reassuring, but it is also obvious that R0>1 today.

Here are some numbers to put it in perspective. With N=20, and with the low to high estimates for R0, we get:

0.94²⁰~0.3
1.4²⁰~800
2.5²⁰~10⁸
3.9²⁰~10¹²
8.1²⁰~10¹⁸

 

[jedishrfu]

ArsTechnica has an FAQ article (see below) that they say will be updated at 3 pm EST every day with the very latest in COVID-19 information:

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/#h1

 

[Rive]

...For that, the mainstream scientific community shunned him, and drove him into a mental institution.

Just for the log: the most likely reason for his mental breakdown is suspected to be an illness - progressing late stage syphilis, what was kind of common at that time for his profession. This is suspected to be behind the really provoking, negative and obsessed tone of his later publications, what led to negative response.

Yup, kind of trolling.

While the theory was not accepted, the practice actually was: not by all, but by many.

I don't know what's the moral of this sad story.

 

[Jarvis323]

ArsTechnica has an FAQ article (see below) that they say will be updated at 3 pm EST every day with the very latest in COVID-19 information:

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/#h1

For balance,

When an official makes a statement such as "There is no need for public panic," it indicates a limited understanding of how people behave during disasters. Moreover, it reflects a fundamental distrust in the tendency of the public to generally do the right things when given the right information.

https://www.crainsdetroit.com/other-voices/commentary-stop-telling-us-not-panic-about-covid-19

 

[Jarvis323]

This is suspected to be behind the really provoking, negative and obsessed tone of his later publications, what led to negative response.

But it would seem perfectly normal for him to have such a negative tone, because this is after his ground breaking ideas had been ridiculed, gotten him kicked out the university, and shunned from the medical community. Meanwhile they were continuing to cause thousands of preventable deaths by ignoring him. I would expect most people in that situation would have a really provoking, negative and obsessed tone.

Anyway I guess this is getting off topic. Sorry.

 

[bhobba]

ArsTechnica has an FAQ article (see below) that they say will be updated at 3 pm EST every day with the very latest in COVID-19 information:

Nice. I think the key point to take away is its coming - like it or not. It's entirely up to us how bad it is. I think what happened in Italy is because they did not act fast enough. We will see what happens now they have finally acted, and acted hard. I think China did the same, but its difficult to really know because of the secrecy they had in the early stages. My suspicion is some infected people got into Italy before containment measures were taken in China, which is how Italy's troubles started. Here in Australia the government has not acted hard - yet - I just prey they time it right. And while 'amusing' the toilet paper debacle does not give me confidence. Unfortunately my gut feeling is people really are that 'dumb' in which case acting 'hard' may require more than just voluntary compliance.

A reporter decided to check out the measures they have put in place such as fever clinics. It was hopeless. Nobody really knew what what they were doing. Everyone was told to leave at least a seat between them and other people. But most didn't and nobody in authority stopped it. Another suspected they had it, had the test done, was promised the results reasonably quickly, but had to follow it up himself. He was sent on a goose-chase from person to person for days before he found out the results well after they should have been available. A lot of issues need fixing.

One show I watched lamented at students shying away from science and hence may not really understand the necessity for this.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Jarvis323]

Here is a good source on crisis communication. They also point out the myth of public panic tendencies.

What about Panic? Contrary to what you may see in the movies, people seldom act completely irrationally during a crisis. During an emergency, people absorb and act on information differently from nonemergency situations. This is due, in part, to the fight-or-flight mechanism.The natural drive to take some action in response to a threat is sometime described as the fight-or-flight response. Emergencies create threats to our health and safety that can create severe anxiety, stress, and the need to do something. Adrenaline, a primary stress hormone, is activated in threatening situations. This hormone produces several responses, including increased heart rate, narrowed blood vessels, and expanded air passages. In general, these responses enhance people’s physical capacity to respond to a threatening situation. One response is to flee the threat. If fleeing is not an option or is exhausted as a strategy, a fight response is activated. You cannot predict whether someone will choose fight-or-flight in a given situation.These rational reactions to a crisis, particularly when at the extreme ends of fight-or-flight, are often described erroneously as “panic” by the media. Response officials may be concerned that people will collectively “panic” by disregarding official instructions and creating chaos, particularly in public places. This is also unlikely to occur. If response officials describe survival behaviors as “panic,” they will alienate their audience. Almost no one believes he or she is panicking because people understand the rational thought process behind their actions, even if that rationality is hidden to spectators. Instead, officials should acknowledge people’s desire to take protective steps, redirect them to actions they can take, and explain why the unwanted behavior is potentially harmful to them or the community. Officials can appeal to people’s sense of community to help them resist unwanted actions focused on individual protection.In addition, a lack of information or conflicting information from authorities is likely to create heightened anxiety and emotional distress. If you start hedging or hiding the bad news, you increase the risk of a confused, angry, and uncooperative public.

https://emergency.cdc.gov/cerc/ppt/CERC_Psychology_of_a_Crisis.pdf

 

[StatGuy2000]

Higher rates of certain medical conditions in men could certainly contribute to the differences in immune responses between the sexes. However, the NYT piece also notes higher rates of autoimmune disease in women ("Nearly 80 percent of those with autoimmune diseases are women, Dr. Clayton noted."), which could suggest some underlying biological differences between immunity in men and women.

It is well documented that women have higher rates of various autoimmune diseases. The article you link to suggests a possible mechanism, where preceding infections could stimulate pro-inflammatory cytokines fro mast cells during the innate immune response, and how sex hormones may amplify this effect.

At the same time, I'm curious if the lower mortality rates for COVID-19 in women compared to men could be explained primarily through such a mechanism. I would be especially curious as to how this would compare with SARS or MERS.

 

[Jarvis323]

One thing that is interesting is the disparity between mortality rates in different countries. In Germany, with 1,565 cases, the mortality (based on deaths/total cases) is only about 0.13%, and critical cases (based on critical case/active cases) 0.58%. In Italy, mortality is 6.2% (48X higher) and critical cases 10.3% (17.7X higher).

Maybe Germany just has more accurate statistics due to widespread testing? If it is true, it might suggest the mortality rate is nearer to that of the flu. But I am wondering how those rates are calculated for the flu since most people don't get tested for the flu. It could also be that Germany's COVID-19 testing is outpacing normal flu testing. Is it possible that the mortality rate of the flu is exaggerated as well?

Even if the true rate is 0.13% or lower, Italy is still struggling pretty hard to handle the additional strain on the hospitals.

 

[DennisN]

Here in Sweden we now have got new directives.
The community spread threat level has been increased to the highest, since there have been indications of some community spread of the virus.

Because of this our national health recommendations has been updated, and those who are feeling ill with cold- or flulike symptoms are recommended to stay at home and don't go to work, school or social gatherings.

Source:
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/risken-for-smittspridning-hojs-till-hogsta-nivan/
(only in Swedish, sorry)

Furthermore, in my city, those who are employed in healthcare or work at the university have been advised to cancel all travels and public meetings that are not absolutely necessary.

In Sweden we now have 325 confirmed cases (and no known deaths), but worth noting is also that we have a pretty small population, about 10 million.

Personally I have sent advice and guidelines to my old parents, the same guidelines I wrote about previously in this thread, gathered from the WHO advice.

 

[OmCheeto]

This seems like suspicious maths to me:

vs

I suppose if gamma = 1, there's no problem.

 

[chirhone]

"China stopped the coronavirus. Your country won't"



What happens if my or your country won't be able to stop it? Does it mean continuous exposure like the common colds?

 

[atyy]

What would Issac Newton think about viruses, and illnesses based on his research.

Not really, what you are asking, but much of Newton's groundbreaking work was done in a period when the university had closed because of the plague, and he had to work from home.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/teach/isaac-Newton-the-man-who-discovered-gravity/zh8792p

Many companies are now introducing work from home where possible to help with the social distancing measures to prevent COVID-19 spread.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...om-home-flexible-best-practices-tips-12421586
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/8/21170547/tim-cook-remote-iphone-apple-global-coronavirus
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/10/...ican-employees-work-from-home-sick-leave-fund
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/09/b...ff-work-from-home-to-reduce-coronavirus-risk/

 

[kadiot]

Iran just released 70,000 inmates on FURLOUGH because of the relentless spread of the corona virus ...

Wow! I wonder how they will summon them back when the medical crisis is over...

Like... do they have LOCATOR CHIPS in their bodies?

Wonder if we can do the same with our inmates... uhmmm...

 

[mfb]

This seems like suspicious maths to me:

View attachment 258505

vs

View attachment 258506

I suppose if gamma = 1, there's no problem.

The problem is the inconsistent use of $\gamma$. In "Basic reproduction number" gamma is the time someone is infectious, in "Compartmental models in epidemiology" it's the inverse of time.
Edit: Mentioned it on the talk pages of these articles.

@Jarvis323: Germany has a lot of new cases right now, many of them will die over time. Italy has more older cases and it had the disease hit some hospitals and retirement homes, that drives up the case fatality rate.

 

[DennisN]

I saw a very interesting report from Italy on BBC News, regarding the countermeasures against the virus spread, the impact and also a short interview with a doctor in one of the worst hit regions:

"We are facing a war now here."

which echoes the words of Dr Richard Hatchett in a previous video I posted in this thread.

Coronavirus - Italy in lockdown - BBC News (Mar 10, 2020)

 

[DennisN]

And here is a very interesting and informative interview with Giacomo Grasselli:

Giacomo Grasselli - a senior Italian government health official who is coordinating the network of intensive care units in Lombardy - explains the “critical” situation in Italy, brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak.

I am quoting one of the things he said:

Hopefully in other countries it's not behaving like this, but what is very, very, very important for every country [...] is that everyone must understand if you're not very careful in controlling the spread of the disease, this disease will overwhelm your system no matter how efficient, good or modern it is.

Sobering words indeed.
Source: Interview time at 5m 35s.

The entire interview is here:
Coronavirus ‘worse than a bomb’ on Italy, says doctor coordinating response (Channel 4 News, Mar 10, 2020)

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843v2

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective.
...
Without NPIs, the number of COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (IQR: 44 - 94), with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to prevent more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but integrated NPIs would achieve the strongest and most rapid effect. If NPIs could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in China, cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas. However, if NPIs were conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks later, the number of cases could have shown a 3-fold, 7-fold, and 18-fold increase across China, respectively. Results also suggest that the social distancing intervention should be continued for the next few months in China to prevent case numbers increasing again after travel restrictions were lifted on February 17, 2020. Conclusion: The NPIs deployed in China appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak, but the efficacy of the different interventions varied, with the early case detection and contact reduction being the most effective. Moreover, deploying the NPIs early is also important to prevent further spread. Early and integrated NPI strategies should be prepared, adopted and adjusted to minimize health, social and economic impacts in affected regions around the World.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

10 MARCH 2020
Coronavirus latest: global infections pass 100,000
Updates on the respiratory illness that has infected tens of thousands of people and killed several thousand.

• 
  

Officials spray antiseptic solution in Seoul.Credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty
Here’s the latest news on the outbreak.

10 March 03:30 GMT — Call for more funding
At least US$8 billion is needed to address the most pressing threats posed by the novel coronavirus, says the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), an independent group co-convened by the World Health Organization and the World Bank Group to combat public health emergencies.
The money is needed in addition to the tens of billions of dollars already pledged from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and individual governments.
The GPMB released a report on 9 March calling on advanced economies, such as the members of the Group of Seven and the Group of 20, and financial institutions to provide money to address five priority areas. These include strengthening weak healthcare systems; supporting the World Health Organization’s efforts to help vulnerable countries; developing diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines; strengthening regional surveillance; and ensuring sufficient protective equipment is available for health workers.
9 March 04:00 GMT — Global cases pass 100,000
The number of known global cases of COVID-19 passed 100,000 over the weekend. On 8 March, the World Health Organization reported 105,586 confirmed cases across more than 100 countries and territories. Although the outbreak has been slowing in China, where it originated, the country still accounts for almost 80% of confirmed cases.
6 March 11:30 GMT — US Congress approves US$8.3 billion for Coronavirus response
The United States Congress has passed an emergency spending bill that will allocate US$8.3 billion for the country’s Coronavirus response. The House of Representatives passed the bill in a near-unanimous vote on Wednesday afternoon; the Senate followed suit on Thursday.

[ . . . ]

###
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w#correction-0

 

[chemisttree]

Mask vs. Beard:
View attachment 258493

Masks will not work well if the mask-face seal is compromised by facial hair.
I like the names for the different hair styles.

There is no easy way to test fitment of the respirators either. At least with a rubber mask it is easy to test for a positive seal. I’ve never liked fabric respirators.

 

[DennisN]

I recommend getting your personal moisturizer, since frequent hand-washing leads to dry and cracked skin.

Thanks for the advice! I have now noticed that effect on my hands.

 

[chemisttree]

Here in Australia the government has not acted hard - yet - I just prey they time it right. And while 'amusing' the toilet paper debacle does not give me confidence. Unfortunately my gut feeling is people really are that 'dumb' ...

And that happens for something insignificant. Imagine some more desperate for something truly important. And then imagine you are in the US and those guys have guns...

I really doubt it will come to that though.

 

[bhobba]

I really doubt it will come to that though.

So do I.

Some people on twitter were concerned China says it will have an emergency vaccine in April sometime:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-april-chinese-officials-say/

They were all worried they were going to be forcibly vaccinated. They didn't seem to understand the word emergency. Highly doubtful one would be released to the public that had not been tested as safe which is going to take a least a year the experts say. Its simply as it said - for emergency use only.

I doubt its any further along the development cycle than others like the UQ one or Modernia. China IMHO is just trying to grab headlines.

A question. During the discussion a lot of people complained they had trouble with the swine flu vaccine. Yet here in Aus I am not aware of anyone that had trouble - I certainly didn't and my immune system has a superhighway through it from taking Biologics (at the moment Cosentyx - its not too bad - only, if I recall correctly, a 5 times increase in the risk of colds or the flu, which is why you must get the flu shot each year - others are evidently much worse). Did some US people get a bad batch or something?

Thanks
Bill

 

[chemisttree]

So do I.

Some people on twitter were concerned China says it will have an emergency vaccine in April sometime:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-april-chinese-officials-say/

They were all worried they were going to be forcibly vaccinated. They didn't seem to understand the word emergency. Highly doubtful one would be released to the public that had not been tested as safe which is going to take a least a year the experts say. Its simply as it said - for emergency use only.

I doubt its any further along the development cycle than others like the UQ one or Modernia. China IMHO is just trying to grab headlines.

A question. During the discussion a lot of people complained they had trouble with the swine flu vaccine. Yet here in Aus I am not aware of anyone that had trouble - I certainly didn't and my immune system has a superhighway through it from taking Biologics (at the moment Cosentyx - its not too bad - only, if I recall correctly, a 5 times increase in the risk of colds or the flu, which is why you must get the flu shot each year - others are evidently much worse). Did some US people get a bad batch or something?

Thanks
Bill

Nobody I knew had a bad reaction either. Some people always have a reaction to the flu shot. I guess they must complain a lot. I certainly don’t complain about a sore arm from 10 years ago! Of course I never got Guillain–Barré syndrome either.

Shingle vaccine is another story though! Side effects from those are brutal!

I remember my Mom always complaining that the flu shots gave you all the symptoms of the flu and so she didn’t like them. Thank god there wasn’t an internet back then! Oh, the humanity!

 

[Rive]

link

The person and the story seems to be valid, as far as I could check. If anybody has the revoked study (link or saved copy) then please share it somehow.

 

[Bystander]

..., and now the s**t hits the fan;
https://www.google.com/search?q=cor...ome..69i57.28295j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

[kadiot]

At the time Italy had found 900 cases they had 20 deaths. Germany has found 1200 cases, but only two deaths (both from today). I don't think Germans live that much healthier. Okay, Italy had a couple of older patients early on, but it's still a big difference. Most likely it's a better test coverage.Then you do that. It's a travel restriction (and a ban of events with large crowds), not a restriction on any movement.
Here is BBC's article

Maybe they're more susceptible. Many old people. And maybe because they 'beso' and hug.

 

[kadiot]

..., and now the s**t hits the fan;
https://www.google.com/search?q=cor...ome..69i57.28295j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I think Americans are fond of law suits...not that much in my country. Unless someone started the trend. That would be unprecedented...lawyers would love it!