COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Ygggdrasil]

You have misunderstood it, or have been given incorrect information. You would be MUCH more safe in a country that achieved herd immunity.

In this context, herd immunity describes a strategy proposed by a few countries (most notably by Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK), in which a country eliminates the disease by letting a large fraction of the population contract the disease and therefore become immune to it:

Herd immunity is a phrase normally used when large numbers of children have been vaccinated against a disease like measles, reducing the chances that others will get it. As a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine, it is novel – and some say alarming.

It relies on people getting the disease – in this case Covid-19 – and becoming immune as a result. Generally it is thought that those who recover will be immune, at least for now, so they won’t get it twice.

But allowing the population to build up immunity in this way – rather than through widespread testing, tracking down the contacts of every case and isolating them, as many other countries in Asia and Europe have chosen to do – could increase the risk to the most vulnerable: older people with underlying health problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

An analysis from Imperial College London suggests that such a strategy, even with the best efforts to mitigate the effects, such as quarantining the elderly and other susceptible populations would overwhelm hospitals with a surge of critically ill people eight times larger than the health system in the UK could deal with.

Sure, herd immunity would make a country safer, but achieving herd immunity (in the absence of a vaccine) requires getting 60-70% of the population infected, which would be very dangerous and deadly.

 

[BillTre]

just as some background, the term herd (not heard as some have been spelling it) immunity comes from the veterinary field. Many vets are not so involved with treating dogs and cats, but work with farms which have herds of animals (keep closely together). This is a situation in which a disease can rapidly spread through a population.

As @Ygggdrasil said herd immunity is when a large percentage of the susceptible population develops immunity through either exposure to the disease in question or by vaccination.

If enough of the population is immune, then the disease can not effectively spread through the population, because the infectious units (viruses in this case) have a much more difficult time finding a susceptible host (victim).

 

[anorlunda]

Do you anticipate more than 50 people to attend your church on Sunday?

In Florida the orders have been modified to more than 10 people.

 

[DennisN]

just as some background, the term herd (not heard as some have been spelling it) immunity

For others reading this, heard immunity is only developed among deaf people.

 

[PeroK]

In this context, herd immunity describes a strategy proposed by a few countries (most notably by Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK), in which a country eliminates the disease by letting a large fraction of the population contract the disease and therefore become immune to it:

If you will forgive some black humour at this stage, the UK may need to adopt this strategy to get COVID over and done with so we can get on with BREXIT.

 

[anorlunda]

If you will forgive some black humour at this stage, the UK may need to adopt this strategy to get COVID over and done with so we can get on with BREXIT.

Hey, I didn't think of that. BREXIT is just a form of social distancing.

 

[bhobba]

Here in Australia the island state of Tasmania has introduced a total lockdown - not allowing the rest of Australia to enter without a 14 day quarantine. It's blatantly against our constitution, but most think its a good idea so it's unlikely to be legally challenged. Also there is the issue of enforcement of quarantines. Evidence is in it's mostly an honours system. Police can enforce it of course, and IMHO should, but our PM announced, basically, he was disgusted with things like toilet paper hoarding. A minster then said - basically - I am sick of this - so police are now patrolling stores and when they see hoarding literally doling out the items to customers. Hoarding solved - but of course it interferes with the work of checking that people are actually isolating themselves. IMHO that's much more important. Tracing of new cases is still revealing only a small amount of local transmission, so we must be vigilant in ensuring quarantines. But IMHO the horse has already bolted and we are heading down Italy's road - God help us.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Jarvis323]

Are you kidding? The 4 hours of local TV news is entirely devoted to this, as is the 1/2 hour evening national news (staggered, so I can see an hour of that) plus the 2 hours of national "morning" news. It is all anyone talks about, not to mention the social media (see this 1400+ post thread on PF for example). Here in Nevada, the Governor told all non-essential businesses to close (and many are doing that, including the casinos, big & small) -- so the uninformed are presented with locked doors on closed stores. Also, if any of your doctors, dentists, etc. have your email address you get messages from them notifying you to forget about routine or non-emergency appointments.

Most young people tune out of the TV news, and for understandable reasons. They have been a constant source of misinformation about this. At first they were telling people it's nothing to worry about. They're now contradicting themselves. Online, there are hundreds of thousands of low quality, low information articles to sift through. Social media is just worse, full of memes and misinformation. The recommendations are changing daily, and we are expecting them to get the word through facebook?

They need concise, official direct messages from the government to each person.

 

[anorlunda]

Most young people tune out of the TV news,

That's a very good point. Like it or not, it must be partially true. They are right. There is good reason to distrust the news.

But emergency texts pushed to the phone are not the answer unless the text says "WATCH THE NEWS". The information you need to know requires too many sentences to be practical for a short text.

In this case, I think the young people must put their distrust aside and watch the news. Even web sites are of limited value because the information changes so quickly and you can't know if the web page has been updated in the past hour. I too do not trust much of the news, but I do trust it to be up-to-the-hour with the latest info.

 

[gmax137]

They need concise, official direct messages from the government to each person

I can't think of a way to implement that, nor can I think of a single time in the ~240 years of our government's existence when that has happened.

 

[Jarvis323]

I can't think of a way to implement that, nor can I think of a single time in the ~240 years of our government's existence when that has happened.

It's already implemented though.

 

[gmax137]

It's already implemented though.

How?

 

[Jarvis323]

How?

https://www.ready.gov/alerts
https://www.fema.gov/emergency-alert-system
https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/emergency-alert-system-eas

 

[Ygggdrasil]

For the US, the government has setup https://www.coronavirus.gov/ as an online resource w/ information about the outbreak.

 

[phinds]

An interesting take, suggesting that things might not get as bad as a lot of sources are predicting:

ZDnet article

The media regularly refers to "exponential" growth in the number of cases of COVID-19 respiratory disease, and deaths from the disease, but the numbers suggest something else, a "small world" network that might have power law properties. That would be meaningfully different from the exponential growth path for the disease.

and some discussion to back up that point of view

 

[Jarvis323]

For the US, the government has setup https://www.coronavirus.gov/ as an online resource w/ information about the outbreak.

I've been binging on tracking the flow of information about COVID-19, and I didn't even know that website existed. This is an example of the ineffectiveness of the US government to communicate to the public. In my opinion, the EAS should have been used starting one month ago. Text messages should have been sent each time the official recommendations change.

 

[Jarvis323]

In this case, I think the young people must put their distrust aside and watch the news. Even web sites are of limited value because the information changes so quickly and you can't know if the web page has been updated in the past hour. I too do not trust much of the news, but I do trust it to be up-to-the-hour with the latest info.

I believe the news is good for alerting you to unfolding events, but in my experience it is horrible at informing people beyond that. In the past I've binge watched the news for weeks (e.g. during 911, Iraq war, the last financial crisis, etc.), and then found that I learned more in 10 minutes reading a Wikipedia article. I've also been shocked how little actual information others who have watched the news obsessively have actually absorbed. Most of the coverage is focused on some small aspect at a time for extended periods, and most of the content is skewed opinion. People get tidbits of information scattered redundantly and inconsistently over time and source. Those tidbits are often contradictory. All that many people seem to get out of it is a low information opinion.

 

[gmax137]

I'm sorry @Jarvis323 -- I'm really not trying to be argumentative, but when you said

But what shocks me so far is that, in the US, I have received no direct emergency government messages. We have systems to send people texts, emails, interrupt television broadcasting, etc. As far as I know that hasn't happened. How do we know they even got the message?

Can you provide an example piece of information you think should have interrupted radio & TV, and been sent to every cell phone / email account? What is a specific message you feel people are unaware of?

 

[Jarvis323]

I'm sorry @Jarvis323 -- I'm really not trying to be argumentative, but when you said
Can you provide an example piece of information you think should have interrupted radio & TV, and been sent to every cell phone / email account? What is a specific message you feel people are unaware of?

For example, the shelter in place orders. At least I should have received some kind of official communication that it was happening. I mean, how can you even call something mandatory if you never even told people about it? I'm just saying, how much blame can we put on the youth in this case. It's arguably just as much, or more, the fault of our governments communication strategies, and the news media for misinforming so many people early on.

But like I said, I think we should have been alerted in some direct way to each new change from the start. Some more examples:

1) The fact there was a virus spreading
2) What to do in the case you have the symptoms
3) Travel restrictions as they are planned and implemented
4) Having enough food and supplies on hand
5) New social distancing guidelines
6) Shelter in place orders
7) Conserving resources (e.g. masks)

You would be surprised how many people were/are in the dark about these things.

 

[anorlunda]

1) The fact there was a virus spreading
2) What to do in the case you have the symptoms
3) Travel restrictions as they are planned and implemented
4) Having enough food and supplies on hand
5) New social distancing guidelines
6) Shelter in place orders
7) Conserving resources (e.g. masks)

How did you become aware of those 7 things without an alert on your phone?

 

[Jarvis323]

How did you become aware of those 7 things without an alert on your phone?

I'm near the extreme end of the bell curve in terms of self educating, so my experience is of little value. It would be interesting to have polls from people, including teenagers, through time seeing how much they knew. If we don't use the EAS at this point though, I don't know what it's even for at all. That's all, I think I've given my opinion already. It's OK if we disagree.

 

[kadiot]

In this context, herd immunity describes a strategy proposed by a few countries (most notably by Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK), in which a country eliminates the disease by letting a large fraction of the population contract the disease and therefore become immune to it

I can forgive Johnson of the UK because he's an utter lightweight but the Dutch PM?

 

[PAllen]

An interesting take, suggesting that things might not get as bad as a lot of sources are predicting:

ZDnet article

and some discussion to back up that point of view

I assume you actually meant this link:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19-might-be-a-small-world-after-all/

 

[WWGD]

I can forgive Johnson of the UK because he's an utter lightweight but the Dutch PM?

I understand the British have decided not to follow the strategy of herd immunity. Estimates suggest the overall cost will be too high and things will become considerably worse before getting better.

 

[Evo]

Are you kidding? The 4 hours of local TV news is entirely devoted to this, as is the 1/2 hour evening national news (staggered, so I can see an hour of that) plus the 2 hours of national "morning" news. It is all anyone talks about, not to mention the social media (see this 1400+ post thread on PF for example). Here in Nevada, the Governor told all non-essential businesses to close (and many are doing that, including the casinos, big & small) -- so the uninformed are presented with locked doors on closed stores. Also, if any of your doctors, dentists, etc. have your email address you get messages from them notifying you to forget about routine or non-emergency appointments.

It's sad, but many people don't watch the news, they are watching reality TV. They might know something is going on, but not the facts. I posted before that my neighbor that is a division manager at one of the largest communication providers that this will all be over in a few weeks! Most people I speak with are of the same opinion, this will be over before the end of April! REALLY? Where are they getting this?

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people? You don't horde perishables! Although eggs do last for quite a long time.

 

[anorlunda]

I'm near the extreme end of the bell curve in terms of self educating,

Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. If we had known that in advance, we could have made allowances and been more gentle.

 

[DennisN]

Who hordes eggs?

Hmm... this may not be due to the coronavirus. We could actually be facing the evil twin of the Easter Bunny.

 

[Evo]

I can't think of a way to implement that, nor can I think of a single time in the ~240 years of our government's existence when that has happened.

Trump can spam everyone's cellphone, it's already been done.

 

[gmax137]

Just as an aside:

horde: noun; a large group of people.
"he was surrounded by a horde of tormenting relatives"

hoard: verb; amass (money or valued objects) and hide or store away.
"thousands of antiques hoarded by a compulsive collector"

/grammarpolice

 

[Jarvis323]

It's sad, but many people don't watch the news, they are watching reality TV. They might know something is going on, but not the facts. I posted before that my neighbor that is a division manager at one of the largest communication providers that this will all be over in a few weeks! Most people I speak with are of the same opinion, this will be over before the end of April! REALLY? Where are they getting this?

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people? You don't horde perishables! Although eggs do last for quite a long time.

No eggs where I am at either. I was wondering if people are preserving them somehow (pickled, fermented?). But if lettuce is also out, I don't know what to think. Nobody preserves lettuce as far as I know.

 

[Evo]

Just as an aside:

horde: noun; a large group of people.
"he was surrounded by a horde of tormenting relatives"

hoard: verb; amass (money or valued objects) and hide or store away.
"thousands of antiques hoarded by a compulsive collector"

/grammarpolice

Ooops, SORRY.

 

[zoki85]

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people?

If only they knew how good collector of nanoparticles lettuce was...

 

[gmax137]

Trump can spam everyone's cellphone, it's already been done.

Well, the action discussed is

concise, official direct messages from the government to each person.

I took "each person" to mean "everyone." Last time I checked, smartphone ownership was at around 80% of adults. So there's 1/5 being left out...

Really, my point was that people have to take some responsibility for keeping themselves informed. I think the notion that you can just sit back, and if anything important comes up, the "government" will let you know, that's just silly. Especially in the "personal message" sense, that, "the government will text me anything urgent."

 

[WWGD]

No eggs where I am at either. I was wondering if people are preserving them somehow (pickled, fermented?). But if lettuce is also out, I don't know what to think. Nobody preserves lettuce as far as I know.

Lettuce now what happens. Sorry, best I could come up with.

 

[gmax137]

My mother in law used to talk about "honeymoon salad"

You know, lettuce alone.

 

[zoki85]

Lettuce now what happens. Sorry, best I could come up with.

Toilet paper here. Don't ask why

 

[WWGD]

Toilet paper here. Don't ask why

Dont worry, tp is the new " Don't ask don't tell" since the crisis.

 

[OCR]

Lettuce now what happens.

Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammardictionpolice . . . .

.

 

[Vanadium 50]

/grammarpolice

Actually, that's not grammar, it's diction.

 

[WWGD]

Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammarpolice . . . .

.

More like typing police. It was supposed to be 'lettuce know...'

 

[WWGD]

Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammarpolice . . . .

.

More like typing police. Small keys + fat fingers= 'now instead of the intended 'know.

 

[OCR]

More like typing police. It was supposed to be 'lettuce know...'

Yeah. . . I now.

.

 

[dlgoff]

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs?

Wish I would have had somehow to store a few "Roger" eggs:

 

[DennisN]

/grammarpolice

/grammarpolice

Actually, that's not grammar, it's diction.

More like typing police.

Here's a sketch for you guys.

 

[Evo]

Wish I would have had somehow to store a few "Roger" eggs:

View attachment 258956

ROGER! Are those her eggs on the left? (I was going to say his)

 

[zoki85]

That looks like a proper egg

 

[hmmm27]

Until I see the data, I'm going to church. Because my faith tells me I should, and the 1st Amendment tells me I can.

DATA : google "South Korea church coronavirus". Pretty specific.

CHURCH : Your faith requires keeping the Sabbath holy ; your religious organization may (or may not) require weekly service attendance. Don't mix the two up.

Note, keep up with the tithes in the interim : it isn't "God" that requires money, and a few weeks/months off could give pastors a chance to do capital repairs on the building.

GOVERNMENT : Your government has several provisions to supersede your constitutional rights during a state of emergency. Most of those provisions are in the Constitution, itself.

PRINCIPLE OF HERD IMMUNITY STRATEGY TO FIGHT THE VIRUS: consists of sacrificing some members of the herd so that the rest of the herd is protected in the future.

In simple terms, "herd immunity" is the application of the natural selection law, i.e., only the strong will survive and the weak will be eliminated.

Did I understand it correctly?

Apparently not. Have you tried Wikipedia ? Note, "flattening the curve" has nothing to do with "herd immunity".

 

[Dr. Courtney]

The statement was more forward looking: You have strongly implied a willingness to use legal and physical force to defy government orders, when they come.

Not at all. Neither the church in Baton Rouge nor I suggested the use of physical force. More of an MLK-style peaceful protest with policies we disagree with. Legal force? That's just a synonym for asserting 1st Amendment rights. My attorney has recommended full compliance when presented with a court order supporting a specific church closure.

Obviously this hasn't happened yet in your case, but this sub-discussion started when you posted a story of a church who did exactly that and then took umbrage to our negative reactions. But you do seem to be softening your stance a bit.

My stance has not changed. Attempting to shame a church for meeting in a community with "none to minimal" cases of COVID-19 was uncalled for. I REBUKE it as strongly today as I did when it was first stated. The governor's order attempting to close churches in communities without the presence of Coronavirus was illegal, and neither the local police nor any other legal authority has been willing to enforce it.

Do you anticipate more than 50 people to attend your church on Sunday?

I have no idea. The church is bending over backwards both to accommodate and welcome online attendance as well as to keep things safe for in-person attendance. I expect there to be enough empty seats to maintain a 6 ft distance. There will likely be fewer people in church than in the nearest Walmart, which is the last place I'd want to be at 11 AM Sunday morning. I expect everyone to be as meticulously careful about hygiene issues as they were at the event I attended last Sunday. I don't think it will be any more dangerous than my fishing trip this afternoon. Due to all the closures, it was busier than any time on the lake last year - a Thursday afternoon in March was busier on the lake than the 4th of July and the other 50 times I went fishing last year.

People got to get out. Months of house arrest will not work.

But the wisdom of the Georgia approach is in recommendations for rural counties rather than orders. This is the education phase for counties with minimal or no COVID-19 cases. Georgia is taking a collaborative approach with communities rather than an authoritative approach. The most powerful person (on social issues) in my county is a local pastor of a big church. The politicians schmoozed him to set an example and move all of his ministries to online-only. In exchange, he got some props from the executive branch. As a result his online viewership last Sunday not only exceeded his average church attendance, his online viewership exceeded THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE COUNTY. I estimate 80% of the churches in the county followed the example of the prominent large church.

Most of the remaining 20% can likely be brought into voluntary compliance with Georgia recommendations through the usual education and gently persuasion by the time the county has double-digit COVID-19 cases. The sheriff's department, the health department, the local schools, and most local government has a pretty positive relationship with most churches. Where an order from the governor would be resisted strongly, gentle persuasion toward voluntary compliance from people in the community they know, trust, and work will all the time will succeed by the time it is needed.

 

[Evo]

Can we please get off of the church gripe? This is about people assembling in large groups, we don't care why. No one should be doing it for any reason. And the best way, IMO, to get cases where there are none is to get a bunch of people together in an enclosed place on a regular basis.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

Can we please get off of the church gripe? This is about people assembling in large groups, we don't care why. No one should be doing it for any reason.

A nationwide lockdown is not justified. There are lots of rural counties without a single case of COVID-19 identified.

The 1st Amendment stands. By the time this is over, there will be an election in sight, and the same legal principles will apply to political assemblies. I'm sure fans of candidates that are better at online rallies would like to keep their boot on the throats of candidates who are better at in-person rallies. Cancelling political rallies also implicates the 1st Amendment and the justifications must be narrowly tailored and subjected to very strict scrutiny from the court of jurisdiction before they are enforceable. It is not needed and will not be legal in counties without a single case of COVID-19.