Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Dotini]

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

old jim

First do no harm! We need to come to a modus vivendi with billions of people who are still in patriarchal social structure while we have rapidly stepped into a paradigm where our identity is difficult to define. For my own part, I'm watching Game of Thrones.

 

[nsaspook]

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

Don't clumsily dump homegrown dictators/thugs/kings, etc... who force the factions to live together, if not in peace then at least not in open warfare. If there is open warfare within the country contain it to the borders and let them and only them sort it out whenever possible. The odds of this happening where oil or something else valuable exists in the country is near zero.

 

[lisab]

<snip> we have rapidly stepped into a paradigm where our identity is difficult to define <snip>

...sort of like a fish who is not aware of the water he swims in, because he's never seen the surface?

I agree, it can be difficult to define ourselves. But I'm sure Iraqis have a well-defined, albeit inaccurate, impression of American/Western identity.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Thanks Ryan for your honest appraisal.

The question though for me is, what should a supposedly enlightened West do about it ?

old jim

One question to ask would be should we do anything. Direct intervention may not be a viable solution, as I said previously supporting the government and attacking ISIS could have very negative consequences by further alienating and potentially radicalising Sunni minorities that feel oppressed by the current government.

Personally I think that putting as much political pressure on prime minister al-Maliki to step down and allow the proper formation of a unity government is the best way to curb the sectarian violence. That could ultimately draw support away from ISIS. Unfortunately though it might be a case of too little too late.

Incidentally there's been speculation that the US may embark on air strikes against ISIS with the condition that the government takes steps to become less Shi'ite dominated and more inclusive of Sunnis and Kurds.

 

[jim hardy]

One question to ask would be should we do anything. Direct intervention may not be a viable solution, as I said previously supporting the government ...

yes, it'd seem like "doing the same thing expecting different results"

Incidentally there's been speculation that the US may embark on air strikes against ISIS with the condition that the government takes steps to become less Shi'ite dominated and more inclusive of Sunnis and Kurds.

It's Dante's Fifth Circle . I'd stay out of it.

 

[mheslep]

Isn't war always, without exception, a thing out of Dante? The problem is that war is not always avoidable by adopting a stay out of it plan, as 9/11 and 7/7 most recently demonstrate.

 

[crownedbishop]

You're not saying ISIS wants to go after anything outside of Iraq, are you?

 

[edward]

You're not saying ISIS wants to go after anything outside of Iraq, are you?

What bothers me is all the attention this aspect is getting. If ISIS wants to do anything outside of Iraq, there is no guarantee our next venture into Iraq would prevent it.

 

[Dotini]

What bothers me is all the attention this aspect is getting. If ISIS wants to do anything outside of Iraq, there is no guarantee our next venture into Iraq would prevent it.

ISIS already is doing something outside of Iraq. It is attacking Assad, erasing the border to Syria, and occupying a giant swath of territory between Aleppo and Baghdad. Do we want to prevent ISIS from attacking Assad??

 

[edward]

ISIS already is doing something outside of Iraq. It is attacking Assad, erasing the border to Syria, and occupying a giant swath of territory between Aleppo and Baghdad. Do we want to prevent ISIS from attacking Assad??

Actually I was referring to news reports like this:

Republicans are sounding the warning that the next 9/11-like terror plot could emerge from the regions of Iraq and Syria that are currently dominated by an extremist group bearing down on Baghdad.

As the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) - which has already captured the cities of Tikrit and Mosul and is threatening to take the capital city as well - grows in strength and numbers, will it pose an immediate threat to the United States homeland as well?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-isis-plan-a-911-style-terror-plot-against-the-u-s/

And what I meant was, would a U.S. military presence in Iraq prevent this type of attack?

 

[Czcibor]

Assuming that Obama has a plan, it involves making the situation unbearable for Iran and instead of fighting Islamic radical, watch Shia radicals fighting Sunni radicals. Callous, but may be reasonable.

Or maybe he is now haggling with Iran about US air strikes.

Of course he does not have to have a plan.

Anyway the W. should have left that region untouched. The most enlighten political system that Iraqi can maintain is cruel dictator, who at least is secular and maintains peace in country.

 

[Dotini]

The most enlighten political system that Iraqi can maintain is cruel dictator, who at least is secular and maintains peace in country.

That is a bold statement! Could it be true?

Not long ago, the middle east was dominated by cruel secular dictators who kept the lid down tight. In places including Iraq minority rights were protected, alcohol was served and women could wear make-up and western clothes.

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Are we now to accept that ideologically driven policies were wrong and a return to pragmatism or utilitarianism is warranted, and more enlightened?

 

[jim hardy]

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Sure wish i knew whether that was well intentioned evangelistic democracy-preaching missionary work gone awry, or a return to pre-opec policy of keeping the region unstable.

Maybe I've been reading too much Taylor Caldwell.

 

[OmCheeto]

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Sure wish i knew whether that was well intentioned evangelistic democracy-preaching missionary work gone awry, or a return to pre-opec policy of keeping the region unstable.

Maybe I've been reading too much Taylor Caldwell.

Wow. Sounds like a multilayered stream of consciousness anger fest...

Slow down kids.

Breath.

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nie jesteśmy bogiem

 

[Astronuc]

(AP) Iraq at risk again: How did we get here so fast?
http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-risk-again-did-fast-071219768.html

WHEN DID THE TROUBLE START?

The answer depends: How far back do you want to go?


There appears to be concern that if ISIS overruns Iraq (and Syria), what then?

Once they consolidate the region, where will their aspirations lead?

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-255631

Alghorani is convinced that members of ISIS were released strategically by Assad. “From the first days of the revolution (in March 2011), Assad denounced the organisation as being the work of radical Salafists, so he released the Salafists he had created in his prisons to justify the claim ... If you do not have an enemy, you create an enemy.”
...
“Al Qaeda are extremists. They’re terrorists, they’re everything you want to say about them, but they’re operating to a central creed.” Al-Saud said. “ISIS are simply a bunch of ignorant young men who have been brainwashed into thinking what they’re doing is right.”

ISIS looks to be a mile wide and a inch thick. Assad had no problem handling them and Iraq shouldn't either if anyone there actually had a backbone.

 

[Czcibor]

That is a bold statement! Could it be true?

Not long ago, the middle east was dominated by cruel secular dictators who kept the lid down tight. In places including Iraq minority rights were protected, alcohol was served and women could wear make-up and western clothes.

Now many cruel secular dictators have been swept away in a series of pro-democracy revolutions collectively dubbed the "Arab spring". That this trend was supported and encouraged by the US and pro-democracy NGO's is not in much doubt, is it?

Are we now to accept that ideologically driven policies were wrong and a return to pragmatism or utilitarianism is warranted, and more enlightened?

No, this statement can't be true. It implies that some ethnic groups did not mature to democracy, thus is racist. And racist statements can't be true. Q.E.D. ;)

I think that the USA was slowly encouraging democracy through NGOs, however later become somewhat reluctant. I'd rather say that it undermined govs on its own, however it was more a mixture of different causes that exploded together. Anyway, (except Iraq) there was no good choice - when before '79 the USA was supporting some local ruler in Iran it backfired in possibly the most disastrous way.

Anyway, the USA had good experience with already developed Germany and Japan which had their period of curable madness, and expected that the same can be done in the Middle East. (to be honest I also used to believe that) Instead someone has to build countries in tribal societies from scratch.

 

[mheslep]

It appears you are confusing some ISIS leadership mentioned in that article with the group at large. Since ISIS is reported to control dozen Syrian cities, I don't think it is fair to say Assad "handled" them.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/18/isis-iraq-syria-two-wars-one-nightmare

 

[nsaspook]

It appears you are confusing some ISIS leadership mentioned in that article with the group at large. Since ISIS is reported to control dozen Syrian cities, I don't think it is fair to say Assad "handled" them.

The Syrian leadership with Russian advisers IMO are running a smart game with ISIS by playing enemy against enemy by letting them run the operation on border desert with Iraq so they will stay out of his hair within his power base cities while he handles our rag-tag Syrian National Coalition forces.

From your link.

The Syrian National Coalition, the main western-backed opposition group, quickly dismissed the raids as "a ridiculous decoy". Assad, it claimed, "aims through this fake air strike against limited Isis administrative centres to send a message to the international community and to rebuild trust with it, after its close relationship with Isis was exposed".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-boosting-al-Qaeda-with-secret-oil-deals.html

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad has funded and co-operated with al-Qaeda in a complex double game even as the terrorists fight Damascus, according to new allegations by Western intelligence agencies, rebels and al-Qaeda defectors.

Jabhat al-Nusra, and the even more extreme Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS), the two al-Qaeda affiliates operating in Syria, have both been financed by selling oil and gas from wells under their control to and through the regime, intelligence sources have told The Daily Telegraph.

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28042309

The funds would help Syrians defend against forces aligned with President Bashar al-Assad, the White House said.

The aid would also counter Islamists militants such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), it added.

Isis's advance in neighbouring Iraq has led some in Congress to press Mr Obama to take action.

http://www.navytimes.com/article/20140310/NEWS/303100015/Report-U-S-troops-training-Iraqis-Jordan

 

[edward]

What actions would some in congress want Obama to take?

At a closed-door briefing Tuesday night, senators were told it would be two or three weeks before the Pentagon had completed its first assessment.

"The president needs to make a recommendation on a plan to make sure that our people are safe and to ensure that [ISIS] isn't in a position where it has established an Islamic caliphate that it can threaten our country," said Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H. "The reality is, I'm not sure we have two weeks for him to make a decision on the Iraqi security situation."

Demanding that the president move more quickly appears to be the only action Congress is going to take. When asked if lawmakers would go off on holiday and leave the Iraq situation to the president, McCain shrugged his shoulders.

"Apparently," he said.

Obama has no magic wand to wave. This is all politics as usual.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/republicans-warn-obama-doesn-t-have-two-weeks-to-mull-iraq-20140625

 

[Chronos]

I'm rather annoyed republicans are content to pay out rope to Obama on this issue. Politics at its worst.

 

[TheAustrian]

Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.

 

[OmCheeto]

Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.

Although I agree with you, about splitting the country, I believe it is not acceptable to the rest of the nations of the world, as it would set a logical precedent. North America would probably choose to rearrange as the United States of Canada, Jesusland, and the Republic of Texas. The populace of the Gaza Strip would probably want to expand into Egypt, as that area strikes me as being "full". I really don't know what the deal is with Israel. Tel Aviv was founded on a pretty much unpopulated sandy shoreline, and now everyone wants the current occupants out. The rest of Israel strikes me as little better, geographically.

Wait. What are we talking about? Iraq. hmmmm...

I started to post something on this thread the other day, but someone interrupted me. It appears I didn't jot down my notes that day, so I'll try and regurgitate it from memory:

This reminds me a bit of the Northern Ireland conflict: Same god, different jersey colors.

I often see different religious sects to being comparable to sports teams. Everything is fine and dandy, until one side sees the other side winning, and then everyone wishes the toilets had been bolted down better.

Humans are funny, in a sad kind of way.

But looking over the wiki article on "The Troubles", it would appear that I had no clue what was going on there either.

The Troubles began in the late 1960s and is considered by many to have ended with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement of 1998. However, sporadic violence has continued since then.

The conflict was primarily a political one, but it also had an ethnic or sectarian dimension, although it was not a religious conflict. The key issues at stake were the constitutional status of Northern Ireland and the relationship between its two main communities. Unionists and loyalists, who are mostly Ulster Protestants, generally want Northern Ireland to remain within the United Kingdom. Irish nationalists and republicans, who are mostly Catholics, generally want it to leave the United Kingdom and join a united Ireland.

hmmm... Sounds familiar.


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as usual, I will not be offended if you delete my flippant comments

 

[OmCheeto]

I don't know whether to laugh, or cry.

ISIL declares new 'Islamic caliphate'
Rebels fighting in Iraq under ISIL banner announce creation of Islamic state, extending from Diyala to Syria's Aleppo.

Diyala is an Iraqi province which shares borders with Baghdad and Iran.
Aleppo is the largest city in Syria.
I mention this, as I'm somewhat bad with names.

hmmm... What else do people think?

Put simply, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has declared war on al-Qaida. While it is now inevitable that members and prominent supporters of al-Qaida and its affiliates will rapidly move to denounce Baghdadi and this announcement, it is the long-term implications that may prove more significant

(ref)

Good. Let them kill each other.

Who was it that said; "... let God sort them out."?*

As former military, and current softhearted guy, who takes in malnourished stray cats and downtrodden pigeons, I find it somewhat cowardly, that people involve civilians in their conflicts.

-----------------------------
*Arnaud Amalric. In France no less. Another sectarian war. How appropriate.
ok2d

 

[lisab]

I don't know whether to laugh, or cry.



Diyala is an Iraqi province which shares borders with Baghdad and Iran.
Aleppo is the largest city in Syria.
I mention this, as I'm somewhat bad with names.

hmmm... What else do people think?

(ref)

Good. Let them kill each other.

Who was it that said; "... let God sort them out."?*

As former military, and current softhearted guy, who takes in malnourished stray cats and downtrodden pigeons, I find it somewhat cowardly, that people involve civilians in their conflicts.

-----------------------------
*Arnaud Amalric. In France no less. Another sectarian war. How appropriate.
ok2d

Yes, I think it's wise to keep our military out of this. Humanitarian aid, sure, but choosing sides would be nuts.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

ISIL has apparently removed the last two words from their name on all documentation and is now calling itself the Islamic State. I found their latest document quite impenetrable (it may be the translation but probably is just that it's chock full of religious exaltations) but the last paragraph on page 4 and first of page 5 are quite revealing. I can't copy and paste for some reason but they claim the territory from Aleppo in north west Syria to Diyala in Iraq. Shaira law has purportedly been introduced and courts set up to settle disputes.

Interestingly I've seen interviews with citizens living in ISIL controlled areas who have pointed out that little for them on the ground has changed. Some have said things are better with government roadblocks between areas finally dismantled. It's a messy and dynamic situation though so I doubt a full picture will be available for a while/

 

[OmCheeto]

... I found their latest document quite impenetrable ...

I'm glad I'm not alone.

My interpretation of, or a quote from, each page:

Page 1: Cover sheet. Title: “This is the promise of god”
Page 2: God told us to do this
Page 3: We were naked and ate beetles before God showed up
Page 4: God likes Sunnis and hates Shia
Page 5: God said we should do this
Page 6: “…you will own the earth, and the east and west will submit to you”.
Page 7: You will obey your master
Page 8: “We will defend it – if Allah wills – as long as it exists and as long as one of us remains,
and [if it vanishes] we will bring it back – if Allah wills – upon the methodology of prophethood.”
Page 9: “And if anyone wants to break the ranks, split his head with bullets and empty its insides, whoever he may be.”
Page 10: Happy Ramadan

My response:

Page 1-5: Ok
Page 6: Tears for Fears is god; “Everybody wants to rule the world”
Page 7: Very Vaderesque
Page 8: if*
Page 9: Don’t remember bullets in the Quran. Might be my memory…..
Page 10: Same to you!

-------------------------------
* My sincerest thanks to micromass, for the quiz yesterday.

 

[jim hardy]

Eric Hoffer's "True Believer" was recently printed in Arabic.

http://xrdarabia.org/2010/04/11/translating-eric-hoffer/

Eric Hoffer was a bit of an oddity. Self-educated, he preferred physical labor over a desk-bound job. He was also non-ideological, instead looking objectively at the social conditions that led masses to adopt, lock-stock-and-barrel, ideological reasoning that promised to resolve their problems, but in the end only added to them. And at the cost of millions of lives. Those killed as a result were not necessarily followers, but instead simply people who were seen at the time to be impediments to the ‘greater good’.

I wonder if Mark Twain's "War Prayer" could follow ?
http://warprayer.org/

good delivery about 6 minutes into this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVYIRbmxHpc

 

[OmCheeto]

Eric Hoffer's "True Believer" was recently printed in Arabic.

http://xrdarabia.org/2010/04/11/translating-eric-hoffer/

Quite nice to see a positive article like that.

Nevertheless, having Hoffer’s True Believers available in Arabic is an enormous step forward. It offers important ideas that should become part of the thinking of not only governments, but individuals. Far from ivory tower academics, it is a voice from the ground. It is a voice that should become part of the conversations and dialogues that compose Arab reforms.

Nice to see some people in the Middle East contemplating the possibility that not all westerners are kuffār. (infidels) I suppose some of us are, but not all.

I wonder if Mark Twain's "War Prayer" could follow ?
http://warprayer.org/

good delivery about 6 minutes into this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVYIRbmxHpc

I think it follows. I've never heard of it before.

Interesting personal note about it on wiki:

The piece was left unpublished by Mark Twain at his death in April 1910, largely due to pressure from his family, who feared that the story would be considered sacrilegious. Twain's publisher and other friends also discouraged him from publishing it. According to one account, his illustrator Dan Beard asked him if he would publish it anyway, and Twain replied, "No, I have told the whole truth in that, and only dead men can tell the truth in this world. It can be published after I am dead." Mindful of public reaction, he considered that he had a family to support and did not want to be seen as a lunatic or fanatic.

I can totally relate. I really wanted to speak my mind where I used to work, but I had mortgage payments to make. On a related note, a story which I'm sure I've told at least 10 times:

I was hot and heavy commenting on Al Jazeera's Facebook page several years ago, regarding something about to take place in Palestine, during which, I started getting friend requests from people in the area. Some of them never posted. I decided later, that I was speaking for them. Americans have the luxury of speaking their mind with relative impunity on the internet. Unfortunately, speaking your mind in many of those countries won't result in your loss of ability to make a house payment, it results in the loss of your head.

 

[klimatos]

The average resident of that unfortunate area does not think of himself or herself as an “Iraqi”. If asked for their allegiance, they will identify themselves by their religious affiliation. If you press further, they will give a tribal or family grouping. Press again and they will give the town of their birth.

They view the national boundaries of Iraq as lines drawn on the map by foreigners (British and French) and enforced militarily by foreigners without the consent of the local people, and therefore unworthy of respect. As one Baghdadi said to me, “I wipe the soles of my shoes on such lines!” This is a gross insult in the Arab culture.

You should not expect “Iraqis” to act for “love of country”. Their loyalties lie elsewhere.

 

[klimatos]

Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.

It worked in India, but it was very, very bloody.

Certainly, the present boundaries of the state bear no relation to the wishes of the local inhabitants, being the result of power grabs by Britain and France after WWI.

 

[klimatos]

Who was it that said; "... let God sort them out."?*

I believe it was Richard the Lionhearted on the occasion of the capture of Jerusalem. Both Christians and Moslems had taken refuge in a church. Since they both dressed alike, the Crusaders could not tell them apart.

Richard's solution was, "Kill them all, and let God sort them out!"

A contemporary commentator reported that the blood "ran ankle deep in the nave of the church".

 

[mheslep]

It worked in India, but it was very, very bloody.

Well a border was drawn, two independent states recognized. I don't know whether "worked" applies yet.

 

[HossamCFD]

I believe it was Richard the Lionhearted on the occasion of the capture of Jerusalem. Both Christians and Moslems had taken refuge in a church. Since they both dressed alike, the Crusaders could not tell them apart.

Richard's solution was, "Kill them all, and let God sort them out!"

A contemporary commentator reported that the blood "ran ankle deep in the nave of the church".

OFF TOPIC
Richard never captured Jerusalem. He came to within sight of the city but never actually set foot in it.

I think this incident might have happened in Acre or Jaffa though.