Probability of Radiohead being a great band given that The Beatles inspired them

In summary, the conversation discusses the likelihood of a new band, Radiohead, being great based on the opinions of music critics about the inspiring band, The Beatles. The given table shows the probability of a new band being great given the inspiring band's greatness. Using this information, the probability of Radiohead being a great band is calculated to be 0.46. Part 2 of the conversation explores the probability of The Beatles being great given that Radiohead is great, which is calculated to be 0.8 times the probability of The Beatles being great.
  • #1
Fusilli_Jerry89
159
0
I could have posted this in the homework section but I didn't see a section on probability. Also, this is more of a general conditional probability question asked through an example.
A band called Radiohead is inspired by an old band called The Beatles.
50% of music critics think the beatles was a great (G) band, 40% that it
was moderate (M) and 10% that it was awful (A). These critics have also
compiled the following table:


0.8 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.9 0
0.2 0.3 0.5The table says that the probability of a new band (B2) being great given
that the inspiring band (B1) was great is P (B2 = GjB1 = G) = 0:8: Similarly, P (B2 = GjB1 = M) = 0:1, P (B2 = MjB1 = A) = 0:3, and so on.
Note that the numbers in the rows add up to 1, so the table is a probability
transition matrix.
1. Given what the critics think of the Beatles and the fact that the Beatles
inspired Radiohead, what is the probability that Radiohead is a great
band?
2. What is P (B1 = GjB2 = G)?

For 1 I get 0.50*0.8 + 0.40*0.1 + 0.10*0.2 = 0.46 which I think is correct.However, I am having trouble with part 2. I can write

P(B1 = G | B2 = G) = P(B2 = G | B1 = G)P(B1 = G) / P(B2 = G)

which leads to 0.8 * P(B1 = G) / P(B2 = G)

I also notice that P(B2 = G) = 1 cause we are told.

This leads to

P(B1 = G | B2 = G) = 0.8*P(B1 = G)

Is there any way to get an exact answer for this? Or do I have to find a different way to tackle this problem?
 
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  • #2
"Given A" does not mean "assume P(A) = 1." Use your answer in part 1.
 

Related to Probability of Radiohead being a great band given that The Beatles inspired them

1. What is conditional probability?

Conditional probability is a mathematical concept that measures the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred. It takes into account the relationship between two events and how the occurrence of one affects the probability of the other.

2. How is conditional probability calculated?

Conditional probability is calculated by dividing the probability of the joint occurrence of two events by the probability of the first event. This can be represented mathematically as P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B), where A and B are events.

3. What is the difference between conditional and unconditional probability?

Unconditional probability, also known as marginal probability, measures the likelihood of an event occurring without taking into account any other events. Conditional probability, on the other hand, takes into account the occurrence of another event and adjusts the probability accordingly.

4. How is conditional probability used in real life?

Conditional probability is used in many real-life situations, such as in medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, and risk analysis. For example, a doctor may use conditional probability to determine the likelihood of a patient having a certain disease based on their symptoms and medical history.

5. What are some common misconceptions about conditional probability?

One common misconception about conditional probability is that it always results in a smaller probability. However, this is not always the case, as the probability of an event can increase or decrease depending on the relationship between the two events. Additionally, conditional probability should not be confused with causation, as the occurrence of one event does not necessarily cause the other to occur.

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