Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

The UK needs to speed up visa processing of Ukrainians refugees

Yes, from what I read, it is a bit embarrassing. You can currently travel by train from Lwiw to Pau for free if you have a Ukrainian passport (not sure about the situation in Spain and Portugal). And there are 10,000 people arriving in Berlin daily.

I had read about 50 people in the UK ...

 

[neilparker62]

Hello Mr Putin. I don't know who's advising you at the moment but here's a voice you should probably listen to.

https://www.france24.com/en/20150509-video-ukrainian-red-army-vet-calling-putin-back-down

 

[PeroK]

I had read about 50 people in the UK ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60655788

 

[diogenesNY]

According to BBC radio this AM, Chernobyl nuclear facility has lost power. 48 hours of fuel are estimated for the backup generators. Critical needs for outside power include the cooling pools for waste that includes spent fuel and recovered waste from the previous disaster. Attempts are being made to negotiate safe passage for repair crews.

Again, this is all from the BBC World News radio broadcast that has just finished up.

Minor update: Via NPR: Repair crews are being denied access by Russian combat troops.

--diogenesNY

 

[Rive]

 

[fresh_42]

The current situation:

Source: https://www.spiegel.de/

 

[DennisN]

War in Ukraine: Russia soon unable to pay its debts, warns agency (BBC News, 9th March 2022)​

Russia will soon be unable to pay its debts, according to a leading credit ratings agency.

Fitch Ratings downgraded its view of the country's government debt, warning a default is "imminent".

The move comes amid increasing international sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

A credit rating is intended to help investors understand the level of risk they face in buying a country's debt - or bonds.

A low rating means the chances of not getting repaid is considered to be high - and so an investor will charge more to lend to that country.

[...]

Source (with more info): War in Ukraine: Russia soon unable to pay its debts, warns agency (BBC News, 9th March 2022)

 

[pinball1970]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60655788

I agree with everything that Dianne Abbot said. (A sentence I thought I would never use)
Johnson said we still need a sort of an idea on numbers coming in. Not many other countries seem to have that as a priority.

 

[neilparker62]

What you're up against Mr Putin!



See also post #816.

 

[jtbell]

Russians flee Putin's crackdown as Ukraine invasion reshapes Moscow's future (NBC News, 9 March)

[...] tickets for the twice-daily, 3½-hour train [from St. Petersburg] to Helsinki topped 9,000 euros (about $9,800) last week. The cars have been so packed that its operator, Finland’s VR Group, has introduced a third daily service.

 

[artis]

For that kind of money for a train ride one could simply buy a car and leave with it...PS. I had some thoughts lately, and even though this is an internet forums and nothing is that personal, I want to apologize to those here whom I annoyed and irritated with my long remarks. I have to admit work has been tough lately and I'm getting less sleep than I would like to, and then this whole Ukraine deal hit sort of close to home not just figuratively but also literally. I turned into a "armchair general and expert" in a day... especially given how everybody here talks about it and we share much in common with Ukraine both in real people as well as history.
I normally don't like to be as one user here said "condescending" , in fact it's quite the opposite of how I like to be. And when going over my remarks I did found them passive aggressive at some point as @Bandersnatch pointed out. Even though our history understanding and our view towards the world might differ and that is normal given we all have different backgrounds, I tried to push my view harder than was necessary.
So for those that I know who disliked my remarks like @russ_watters @PeroK, @Bandersnatch and possibly others, please let this be past us and forgive me.

 

[Bandersnatch]

For that kind of money >I< could buy a car, drive to St. Petersburg, and then to wherever they need to get to. Though if fuel prices keep raising like they do around here, it might get harder and harder to break even.

Thanks for that post, @artis . Self-criticism is never an easy thing to do.

 

[hutchphd]

please let this be past us and forgive me.

Hey man, I'm in the middle of Indiana and I'm freaking out. You must be a bit "edgy" to say the least.
To me your insights have been honest and appreciated. They certainly added to my understanding, and that is very useful. Thank you.

 

[artis]

Thanks for that post, @artis . Self-criticism is never an easy thing to do.

Well like that good old Michael Jackson song , I am trying to do as he sang "starting with the man in the mirror"...

I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could've been any clearer
If they want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make a change

Hey man, I'm in the middle of Indiana and I'm freaking out. You must be a bit "edgy" to say the least.
To me your insights have been honest and appreciated. They certainly added to my understanding, and that is very useful. Thank you.

That is nice to hear, it's always great when what we say brings us closer in any regard and understanding is definitely one important part of that.
I mean I always tend to say here and elsewhere that we shouldn't get emotional and then I did just that, got emotional over fair criticism, add some lack of sleep on top of that and exhaustion.
This past year has been like war almost, Covid knocked down hard (also personally), then prices went up and now this war,
at this point the only thing missing for complete mayhem is that black hole in CERN some said LHC proton collisions would bring us...Anyway there is always risk when you discuss politics, even when it's not your personal opinion that you are expressing, you instantly get tainted.

 

[Astronuc]

“War” and “invasion” are two words that can land someone in prison for up to 15 years under a new Russian law.

Those words are “fake news" in the eyes of Russian lawmakers and President Vladimir Putin, who last week passed a law criminalizing the intentional spread of information that goes against the government’s narrative about what the country prefers to call a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

So, it is illegal to be truthful in Russia, or at least hold an opinion that differs from Putin's regime.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-cracks-down-free-speech-040014673.html

Russia needs to liberate itself from Putin and his oligarch cronies.

Edit/update:

'Putin is angry': U.S. intel chiefs warn that Russia may escalate attacks​

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence leaders on Tuesday floated the idea that Vladimir Putin may seek an exit from Ukraine if his war effort continues to stall, but that escalation of the conflict is likely to happen before the Russian president considers ending his attacks.

“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose. But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time, given the significant costs he is incurring,” Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told members of the House Intelligence Committee.

The heads of the nation’s intelligence agencies painted a bleak picture of the war as it winds through its second week. Intelligence agencies expect that food and water for some Ukrainians could run out in less than two weeks, and believe that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have died so far.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-is-ang...at-russia-may-escalate-attacks-192751180.html

 

[neilparker62]

@artis Thanks for post #816. Perhaps there's a danger we make light of an extremely grim situation but at the same time your animation emphasizes an ordinary guy stepping up to the plate in extraordinary fashion. And lays bare Mr Putin's lies about so-called 'de-nazifying' of Ukraine as an excuse for blatant invasion of a sovereign country.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.parliament.nz/en/get-involved/features/new-zealand-parliament-s-response-to-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

On Monday, 7 March 2022, artwork crafted by the Ukrainian Community of Aotearoa was unveiled on the ground floor of the Beehive by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and a representative from the Ukrainian Community.

In attendance at the unveiling event, hosted by Speaker Trevor Mallard, were members of the Ukrainian community based in Wellington and cross party representatives.

Speaker Trevor Mallard said today that after acknowledging the Ukrainian community by opening the Parliament with a Ukrainian language prayer last week, this artwork is a continuing display of support and solidarity for Ukraine.

“New Zealand’s Parliament stands with Ukraine in these troubling times and condemns the invasion. We support the people in Ukraine, and our thoughts are with those who are impacted by this conflict.”The artwork which depicts a map of New Zealand, embroidered in traditional Ukraine designs, was made and gifted to Parliament by New Zealand’s Ukrainian Community in 2016.

 

[fresh_42]

5%

 

[Astronuc]

Pentagon rejects Poland's offer to send fighter jets to the US to send to Ukraine, saying it raises 'serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance'
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...cerns-for-the-entire-nato-alliance/ar-AAUPVP8

I can see why they would do that.

I think Poland should allow Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighter planes out of Poland, and then to Ukraine. Ukraine must be allowed to defend itself, without having its hands and feet bound.

The Russian people need to remove Putin.

 

[phinds]

The Russian people need to remove Putin.

Yeah, and I need to lose weight but I woudn't bet on either one happening.

 

[gmax137]

5%

??

 

[anorlunda]

From the Cyberlaw Podcast, Episode 397

https://reason.com/volokh/2022/03/0...escends-across-europe/?comments=true#comments
Much of this episode is devoted to the new digital curtain falling across Europe. With usual host Stewart Baker away from the microphone, Gus Horwitz and Mark-MacCarthy review the tech boycott that has seen companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft and Adobe pull their service from Russia. Nick Weaver describes how Russia has cracked down on independent Russian media outlets and blocked access to the websites of foreign media including the BBC and Facebook. Gus reports on an apparent Russian decision to require all servers and domains to transfer Russian zone, thereby disconnecting itself from the global internet.

Mark describes decisions by private companies in the U.S. to exclude Russian media from their systems, including how DirecTV's decision to drop RT America led the Russian 24-hour news channel to shutter its operations. In contrast, the EU officially shut down all RT and Sputnik operations, including their apps and websites. Nick wonders if the enforcement mechanism is up to the task of taking down the websites. Gus, Dave and Mark discuss the mythmaking in social media about the Ukrainian war such as the Ghost of Kyiv, and wonder if fiction might do some good to keep up the morale of the besieged country.

Dave Aitel reminds us that despite the apparent lack of cyberattacks in the war, more might be going on under the surface. He also he gives us details about the https://reason.com/volokh/the%20Conti%20Ransomware%20gang%20was%20facing%20an%20internal%20exploit%20of%20its%20own. that affected the Conti Ransomware gang when they voiced support for Russia. Nick opines that cryptocurrencies do not have the volume to serve as an effective way around the financial sanctions against Russia. Sultan Meghji agrees that the financial sanctions will accelerate the move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency and is skeptical that a principles-based constraint will do much good to halt that trend.

A comment said:

A balkanization of the internet may be necessary. Letting Russia, China drive the governance isn't a win for freedom. Pity we can' give them Facebook and Twitter.

I have always thought that balkanization of the Internet would be a very bad thing. For example, if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine. Nor could we judge how much support Putin has.

 

[fresh_42]

I think Poland should allow Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighter planes out of Poland, and then to Ukraine. Ukraine must be allowed to defend itself, without having its hands and feet bound.

There is a problem. Putin will say that Polish pilots, or even US pilots in case the exchange would actually happen in Ramstein fly those jets. Furthermore, many of these jets (IIRC 22) are from old Eastern Germany's stock. So there are a lot of reasons why this factually means that NATO is participating actively in the war.

Not a good idea.

 

[gmax137]

if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine. Nor could we judge how much support Putin has.

What happened to the Voice of America? Do they still broadcast shortwave, or did they move entirely to internet-based? Do the Russian people still have old SW radio sets gathering dust in the attics?

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

 

[fresh_42]

??

5% of the total Ukrainian population are currently refugees. Only counted those abroad.

 

[fresh_42]

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

Not sure about Voice of America. But Deutsche Welle worked. Probably because many people in the eastern part of Europe understood German. I guess more than English.

I once dropped a line in German in an overcrowded office of a Russian servant to deal with papers about my (and the others) stay in Vladikavkaz ((North-)Ossetia, Caucasus, Russia): "No wonder the Russians drink so much!" and an old lady next to me began to giggle.

 

[gmax137]

I guess more than English.

VoA broadcasted in the local languages. I knew a guy who read the news to Ukraine back in the 1970s (he was born there).

 

[anorlunda]

What happened to the Voice of America?

Good question. Most of the world's short wave radio broadcasts have ceased. They use Internet instead. That would mean that the number of home SW receivers must be reduced too.

I used to listen to SW broadcasts from many countries, but I had to stop around 2013 because most of them ceased. I'm not sure about Voice of America.

Related news: Scott Manley reports on Starlink for Ukraine. He said that Starlink had been waiting for government approval from Ukraine and other European countries. Elon Musk decided to interpret their tweet asking for help as official approval. Manley also reported that the next Starlink launch (today) would be delayed to improve anti-jamming and cyberwar defenses, and to enable mobile use (Ukraine only), in Starlink. It is a civilian system being used in a war zone.

SpaceX also warned Ukrainian Starlink users to keep the antennas away from people because the Russians could detect them and target them for rocket attacks. Mobile use, enables mounting them on moving vehicles.

Here's the Scott manly report. Start at 10:12.

 

[fresh_42]

VoA broadcasted in the local languages. I knew a guy who read the news to Ukraine back in the 1970s (he was born there).

Now that you say it. I'm actually not sure in which language Deutsche Welle broadcast abroad. Anyway, Putin has forbidden them in Russia two weeks ago.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Cardiff Philharmonic replaces the programme of its upcoming all-Tchaikovsky concert

 

[fresh_42]

Cardiff Philharmonic replaces the programme of its upcoming all-Tchaikovsky concert

This is nonsense. Tchaikovsky is barely to blame for this war. If even Barenboim could play Wagner in Tel Aviv, which was far more provocating, then there is nothing wrong with Tchaikovsky in Wales. And since Tchaikovsky was gay, this would be twice a good reason to play him!

They postponed a Netrebko concert here into next year. This makes sense. She refused to condemn Putin's war!

 

[Vanadium 50]

if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine.

Not everyone considers this a bug. To some, it is a feature.

 

[hutchphd]

This is nonsense. Tchaikovsky is barely to blame for this war.

But I haven't heard him condemn it!
This makes perfect sense to me. It may not be rational. But it is not nonsense.

.

 

[artis]

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

My grandfather and father used to say that when the weather conditions were right you could tune into western stations , radio free Europe and such, probably VoA too not sure will have to ask again as last time we discussed this was long ago.

But truth be told it wasn't just foreign radio , in the latter days of the USSR , from 60's onwards, many people knew at least something about life in west. You know sailors covertly brought with them some "goods" from the west, like jeans and chewing gums which were all somewhat taboo items here.
Some people were also allowed to go to the west such as artists and certain specialists so they also saw with their own eyes what they later came back to tell.
You know just like in biblical times, word of mouth testimony...
But we were not as secluded as North Korea, it would be almost impossible to completely "lock up" a territory as huge as the USSR was.
As always geography played a role just as now, the closer one lived to the west in the USSR the more "west like" the people were, I said this before that east Germany was different than Poland and Poland was even different than the Baltics etc.
It's the same now, People in Moscow and StPetersburg have their eyes open wider than those who live further in. Also age plays a large difference, the younger generation has been abroad a lot and uses internet.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...-ukraine-a-possible-sign-of-hydraulic-warfare

Satellite images show flooding north of Kyiv in a possible sign of 'hydraulic warfare'

In the early days of Russia's invasion, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians scrambled to assemble their defences, seeking to make moving through the country as difficult as possible for Moscow's forces.
They blew up bridges, used buses as makeshift roadblocks and welded homemade "Czech hedgehogs" to repel Russian tanks. And, according to a new set of satellite images, they also may have used one of the world's oldest methods of fortification: water.

Photographs from Planet Labs PBC, an American firm, and other researchers appear to show a large expanse of flooded land north of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. In a pair of before and after images, taken on February 22nd and 28th, the swath of territory becomes significantly more sodden.

The Washington Post was not able to confirm that the flooding was intentional, but Planet Labs said it consulted analysts who believe it was deliberate. If so, it would be the latest example of a centuries-old practice.

"When you're defending, you're trying to use what you have," said Marta Kepe, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corp. "Throughout history, we have multiple examples where countries or military actors have built fortification lines - walls, trenches, fortresses and bunkers. But often we forget that rivers, marshes and water-based defence lines can also be used."

If it is intentional, Kepe added, "that may be what Ukrainians are trying to do - use water to prevent Russian forces from getting close to Kyiv."

Deliberate flooding during combat - either to erect a barrier or destroy an area - is known as "hydraulic warfare," and it has often been used to supplement a defensive strategy, Kepe said.

"Ukraine is mounting a defensive operation in its own territory," she said. "Considering that, I would assume that they would be able to use their superior knowledge of the terrain to their advantage. Hydraulic operations would require such in-depth knowledge of the terrain."