Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[davenn]

TWO SOLAR CYCLES ARE ACTIVE AT ONCE: You don't see this every day. There are two sunspots on the sun today, and each one comes from a different 11-year solar cycle. Two solar cycles are active at once. What does it mean? Check out today's edition of Spaceweather.com.

man alive ! I would call bullsh$T on that one. I really wonder about the credibility of some of these dopes …. wouldn't be the first time I and others have had to call them out.

1) Neither group is new cycle as they are both equatorial latitudes.
New cycle groups will be high latitude as seen with previous active regions

2) Polarity is not a determining factor in this case BECAUSE spot groups will have opposite polarities
on either side of the equator

migration of spots towards the equator as a cycle progresses

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

man alive ! I would call bullsh$T on that one. I really wonder about the credibility of some of these dopes …. wouldn't be the first time I and others have had to call them out.

1) Neither group is new cycle as they are both equatorial latitudes.
New cycle groups will be high latitude as seen with previous active regions

2) Polarity is not a determining factor in this case BECAUSE spot groups will have opposite polarities
on either side of the equator

Hi Dave! About the polarity: but these are both on the southern hemisphere ...

 

[davenn]

Hi Dave! About the polarity: but these are both on the southern hemisphere …

mite look that way, but I don't think so, the equator isn't straight across the page

I may be wrong, but I see it as a pretty poor explanation on their partmy other reason still stands ... they are both low latitude

 

[Stavros Kiri]

mite look that way, but I don't think so, the equator isn't straight across the page

I may be wrong, but I see it as a pretty poor explanation on their partmy other reason still stands ... they are both low latitude

(Sorry for the delay in replying - [technical and practical reasons])
Dave, I see your point. I find their explanation pretty poor myself. However I don't think we can discredit it that easily witout further data. There was an article later on explaining it, but I couldn't find it at the moment.
Also it could be a 'statistical fluctuation' ...

+ see next

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The new cycle has clearly started! ... " THE SUN IS FLARING AGAIN: Today [May 29, 2020], the sun produced its strongest solar flare in nearly 3 years. The M-class explosion came from a new-cycle sunspot hidden just behind the sun's northeastern limb. This weekend, the blast site will turn to face Earth, so future flares, if they continue, could become geoeffective. Visit Spaceweather.com for updates. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

That's according to Spaceweather.com . However, NASA may have a different view, somehow. Thus Dave may be right (we'll see). Check this out:

"
"That means solar minimum is an instance only recognizable in hindsight: It could take six to 12 months after the fact to confirm when minimum has actually passed."

So, stay tuned! More observations should tell us if we're already in Solar Cycle 25."
(https://www.livescience.com/sun-unleashes-biggest-solar-flare-since-2017.html)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A new sunspot provisionally numbered AR2770 emerges over the sun's northeastern limb on Aug. 3, 2020. Its magnetic polarity marks it as a member of Solar Cycle 25:

"There's no longer any doubt. New Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. The latest sign came today [Aug. 3, 2020] with the emergence of a new sunspot group, inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):

In this false-color image of the sun, intense magnetic fields are denoted by yellow (-) and green (+).​

Provisionally numbered AR2770, the sunspot has two dark cores (each about the size of Mars) and is crackling with minor B-class solar flares. Its potential for even stronger flares will become clear in the days ahead as the sunspot turns toward Earth, more fully revealing its magnetic complexity.

Active regions from Solar Cycle 25 are now strewn across the sun's northern hemisphere. These are places where magnetic fields are intensifying, creating islands of magnetism on the sun's surface.

The -/+ magnetic polarities of these regions mark them as members of Solar Cycle 25, perHale's Law."
​

(https://spaceweather.us11.list-mana...4d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=d7d36df949&e=8bebdd3f2e)

However, this doesn't mean that solar minimum is over yet. Things will sort out in the following years to come.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

However, as of September 5, 2020, solar minimum conditions are STILL in effect (cf. previous posts to reconcile), as there were no spots for the last 15 days or so, etc. ...
(https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=09&year=2020)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Major sunspot groups recently verify for a fact that solar cycle 25 is of course officially here to stay etc.
A very recent one [AR2781, one of the biggest in years] appeared right on US election day (Nov. 3, 2020).

Here is the picture of the sun today (Sat. 14 Nov., 2020) :



Group 2781 is still visible.

Also, here is AR2781 when it appeared on election day:

[In addition, here is/was a preliminary report (from Spaceweather.com) for that spot group: "ELECTION DAY SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is emerging on the sun today. Hours ago it produced a C-class solar flare and a minor radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This sunspot, if it holds itself together, will face Earth for the next two weeks as it rotates across the face of the sun, potentially setting the stage for a sustained stretch of solar activity. Visit Spaceweather.com for updates."] In fact it did produce significant solar activity, and still is. There is also a newer active region as we speak (2782), but not significally visible. X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B1 1624 UT Nov14 24-hr: B7 2359 UT Nov13 Updated: Today (Nov14) at: 2220 UT (Sunspot region 2782, on Wed. 11 Nov., 2020, produced [on its appearence that day] a long duration C2.6 solar flare which peaked at 19:11 UTC.) Daily Sun: 14 Nov 20 These decaying sunspots pose a threat for minor B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Group 2781 is still visible today (Sunday Nov. 15)
Daily Sun: 15 Nov 20

Departing sunspot AR2781 ... (is stable and quiet)

Here's 3 important links on the history of the latest two AR s (2781, 2782) discussed on the previous post:
2781 (Nov. 3):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=03&month=11&year=2020&view=view

2781, 2782(1st limb appearence) (Nov. 11):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=11&month=11&year=2020&view=view

2781, 2782(C-class flare, Nov11) (Nov. 12):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=12&month=11&year=2020&view=view

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Daily Sun: 26 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

 

[davenn]

This active region (AR2786) looks awesome when looking at the magnetic field ...

cropped
Image credit ... Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), part of the Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"MAGNIFICENT SUNSPOT: There's only one way to describe giant sunspot AR2786. "C'est magnifique," says amateur astronomer François Rouvière, who sends this picture from Cannes, France:

To photograph the sunspot, Rouvière used an H-alpha filter tuned to the red glow of solar hydrogen. It shows not only the sunspot's primary dark core, but also the hot atmosphere just above. Dark filaments winding around AR2786 trace a complex magnetic field that harbors energy for M-classsolar flares.

"There are also two light bridges," points out Rouvière. He's referring tothese canyons of light cutting across AR2786's dark core. The nature of light bridges is not fully understood. Some research suggests that magnetic fields at the base of a light bridge are busy cross-crossing and reconnecting--the same explosive process that sparks solar flares. If so, AR2786 might be preparing to erupt. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text."
(From: spaceweather.com)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

See also:
1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/11/22/steves-cannonballs-little-green-spheres-of-light/
2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=11&year=2020
3) (original paper) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020AV000183
4) (archive on Spaceweather.com on the day that I posted [27 Nov., 2020], (for "timelessness" of the original link etc.))
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=27&month=11&year=2020

 

[Stavros Kiri]

​ MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Today, Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than 3 years. The M4.4-category eruption produced a shortwave radio blackout over some parts of Earth and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). Remarkably, the flare was even bigger than it seemed. The blast site is located just behind the sun's southeastern limb, so the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun. ​ ​ Above: This "D Region Absorption" map from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center shows where shortwave radio propagation was affected by today's solar flare. Daily Sun: 29 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

 

[davenn]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

Wow!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sat. May 15, 2021

THE GREAT GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF MAY 1921: 100 years ago today, the biggest solar storm of the 20th century struck Earth. Buildings caught fire, telephone lines burned out, and auroras were sighted from ships at sea crossing the equator.

 

[davenn]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

They were well seen and photo'ed in southern New Zealand and Australia

 

[davenn]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

 

[Stavros Kiri]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

View attachment 283104

View attachment 283105

Thanks Dave! ... Amazing&Great! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR FLARE FRENZY on May 22: (Report on Mon May 24, 2021) the day before yesterday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824. One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic. NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/22may21/frenzy.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New terminology? "The Termination Event" ... (for the Sun)

Is it a threat? How soon?

Take a look:

https://spaceweather.us11.list-mana...4d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=3fd59cef22&e=8bebdd3f2e

(Published June 11, 2021)

 

[davenn]

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING:
A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth.
ETA: June 15-16. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere and could spark high-latitude auroras when it arrives.

 

[sophiecentaur]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

 

[davenn]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)