Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

" AURORAS IN MOTION: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 13th, sparking a 15-hour geomagnetic storm and some of the best auroras in years. Photographer Göran Strand of Sweden had time to make a whole video. The best auroras are at the end:

"The show started at 01:00 local Swedish time on March 14th," says Strand. "There were some of the most active coronas I've ever seen with such fast moving activity. It was truly an amazing show and one I will remember for a long time." "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Local speed max below on an increased solar wind (right now) and geomagnetic unrest, since yesterday (last night) and today Th March 24, 2022:
"Solar wind
speed: 554.8 km/sec
density: 8.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1246 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0821 UT Mar24
24-hr: C8 0145 UT Mar24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1250 UT

Daily Sun: 24 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 is crackling with C-class solar flares. Even stronger M-class flares may be in the offing. Credit: SDO/HMI"

Overall speed max 597Km/sec at 08:17 UT ...
&

"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: Watch this movie. A big new sunspot group is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. It is crackling with C-class solar flares and could soon pose a threat for stronger M-flares. With a primary dark core twice as large as Earth, the sunspot is an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. We recommend the projection method."

NOTES: 1) also, these are from yesterday:
"A GLANCING BLOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might deliver a glancing bow to Earth's magnetic field later today. The impact, if it occurs, could spark geomagnetic unrest on March 24th. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras."
&
"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: A large sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb today. Philippe Tosi photographed it from his backyard observatory in Nîmes, France:

"It is a big one," says Tosi, who inserted an image of Earth for scale. The sunspot's primary dark core is at least twice as wide as our planet. Furthermore, newly-arriving images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory suggest there may be additional dark cores following just behind it.

The dimensions of the sunspot make it an easy target for safely-filtered amateur telescopes. Don't have a filter? Try this projection technique, instead."

2) and these are from March 21:
"YET ANOTHER GLANCING-BLOW CME: Another CME is heading for Earth, and it's a little off target. A glancing blow (or near miss) is possible during the late hours of March 23rd, according to NOAA forecasters. This will be the 3rd time in the past week that a CME has almost landed a direct hit. Even a near miss can produce bright Arctic auroras. Best case scenario for auroraphiles: A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm."
&
"AURORAS LOVE EQUINOXES: A CME passed near Earth yesterday, March 20th. It didn't hit. But at this time of year a near miss is enough, because auroras love equinoxes. Christopher Mathews witnessed a beautiful display from his backyard in Hraunborg, Iceland:

"My expectations last night were pretty minimal," says Mathews. "The hoped-for CME impact was mostly a clean miss. But because it was the equinox (when Northern Lights seem to come out more often), I decided to watch the skies anyway, and I'm glad I did!"

It's true. Auroras really do love spring. Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During the weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to enter. Even a weak stream of solar wind or an off-target CME can spark a good display at high latitudes.

Another off-target CME is on the way. ETA: March 23th. Thanks to Russell and McPherron, it doesn't need to land a solid blow for skies to turn spring green."

 

[Oldman too]

In Memoriam, The Parker Solar probes namesake has died at 94.
From Science news at a glance.
LOSS FOR SOLAR PHYSICS Pioneering heliophysicist Eugene Parker died last week at the age of 94. In the mid-1950s, he predicted the existence of solar wind—soon proved by early space missions. He also thought myriad “nanoflares,” too small to see, heat the Sun’s atmosphere, another idea that has gained credence. The Parker Solar Probe, now in close orbit around the Sun, is named in his honor, the first NASA spacecraft to be dedicated to a living person.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR FLARE, TSUNAMI, AND RADIATION STORM: A strong flare on the sun this morning (Mon., March 28 2022) kicked off a remarkable sequence of events: a solar tsunami, a solar radio burst, a solar proton storm, a terrestrial radio blackout and a polar cap absorption event. The explosion also (almost certainly) hurled a CME toward Earth.

 

[Oldman too]

SOLAR FLARE, TSUNAMI, AND RADIATION STORM: A strong flare on the sun this morning (Mon., March 28 2022) kicked off a remarkable sequence of events: a solar tsunami, a solar radio burst, a solar proton storm, a terrestrial radio blackout and a polar cap absorption event. The explosion also (almost certainly) hurled a CME toward Earth.

Would this be the one mentioned?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Would this be the one mentioned?
View attachment 299061

1) yep!

2) & as a result:

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3-CLASS): Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible during the early UT hours of March 31st when a Cannibal CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. During such storms, naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as, e.g., Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50o). North Americans should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on March 30th. The hours before dawn on March 31st are probably best for Europeans.

A CANNIBAL CME IS APPROACHING EARTH: On March 28th, sunspot AR2975 unleashed a frenzy of solar flares--more than 17 in all. There were 11 C-class flares and 6 M-flares. At least two full-halo CMEs emerged from the chaos. Click to watch the storm clouds leaving the sun:

Above: A SOHO coronagraph movie of multiple CMEs on March 28, 2022.​

The first CME in this movie was produced by an M4-class flare at 1129 UT. It departed the sun traveling 1259 km/s. The second CME was produced by an M1-class flare at 1923 UT. It departed even faster, traveling ~1700 km/s.

A NOAA computer model suggests that the second CME will overtake the first, merging into a single "Cannibal CME" before striking Earth's magnetic field around 0300 UT on March 31st. Click to view the complete model:

Cannibal CMEs are fast coronal mass ejections that sweep up slower CMEs in front of them. This NASA movie shows what happens. The mish-mash contains tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.

If the NOAA model is correct, the density of solar wind plasma around Earth could increase 10-fold when the CME arrives, while the solar wind speed will top 700 km/s. These events would set the stage for G2- to G3-class geomagnetic storms.

Observing tips: North Americans should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on March 30th. For Europeans, the hours before dawn on March 31st are favored. When chasing auroras, dark skies are essential; go to the countryside. Urban glare can overwhelm auroras even during a strong geomagnetc storm. "3) PLUS this is fresh new! (another new event just a few hours ago, today March 30, 2022):

" X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.3-class solar flare (March 30 @ 1737 UT). The source is active sunspot AR2975--the same sunspot that has already hurled at least two CMEs toward Earth this week. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Here is a blackout map. Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

A CME is almost certainly emerging from the blast site. SOHO coronagraphs have not yet detected the cloud, but there is strong circumstantial evidence. For instance, the US Air Force has detected a Type II solar radio burst, a type of natural radio signal generated by CME shock waves. Also, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has imaged a solar tsunami apparently generated by a CME leaving the sun's atmosphere. "

4) AND the picture now:
"Solar wind
speed: 395.4 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2030 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X1 1737 UT Mar30
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2035 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

[~Regular solar wind (and local max at this point) before the rise due to the coming storms ...]

5) And a local min, a bit later on, just now, before closing this live watch:
"Solar wind
speed: 364.1 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2055 UT "

 

[Oldman too]

I'm looking forward to a good "light show", now if I can get the cloud cover to cooperate. (these kind of events can also have cool effects on the CDC sensors on ISS external cameras.)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I'm looking forward to a good "light show", now if I can get the cloud cover to cooperate. (these kind of events can also have cool effects on the CDC sensors on ISS external cameras.)

true

&
"THE CME IS ALMOST HERE: A CME just hit NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft , and it will reach Earth only minutes from now. This is the Cannibal CME we've been waiting for. It could spark a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm During such storms, naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as, e.g., Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50o)."

" Solar wind
speed: 505.8 km/sec
density: 38.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0226 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 2152 UT Mar30
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0230 UT "

Warning for communications etc. ...

 

[Oldman too]

Clouds... all I can do is be patient and hope for a well timed "sucker hole".

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Clouds... all I can do is be patient and hope for a well timed "sucker hole".

Lol ..., ~ now is a good or the best time, but ~ same here ...

 

[Oldman too]

Still hoping for a clear sky here. As a consolation the ISS cameras are showing the show, with a few good cosmic ray hits from time to time.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Still hoping for a clear sky here. As a consolation the ISS cameras are showing the show, with a few good cosmic ray hits from time to time.

That's a great view tooIn the meantime:
" THE CME HAS ARRIVED: As predicted, a Cannibal CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 31st (0210 UT). First contact sparked a G1-class geomagnetic storm with a chance of stronger storms later today as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized wake.

"Last night we saw some amazing auroras in North Dakota," reports Elon Gane who sends this picture from the shore of Lake Darling:

Remarkably, this picture was taken using a cell phone---"my Samsung S22 Ultra," says Gane. "I was interested in how it would do and I'm pleasantly surprised by the result."

more images: from Zach Schierl of Yakima, Washington; from Jan Curtis of Cheyenne, Wyoming; from Matthew Edwards of Big Horn National Forest, Wyoming; from Michael Kenney of Dubois, Wyoming; from Matt Moffet of Billings, Montana; "

And the picture now:
" Solar wind
speed: 536.5 km/sec
density: 11.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0735 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0542 UT Mar31
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0740 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

&

" Solar wind
speed: 569.4 km/sec
density: 14.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0746 UT "

[local max and solar wind overall rising ...]

 

[Oldman too]

And here I am, about 60 miles (as the crow flies) from the Canadian border, missing the whole thing.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today Th. March 31, 2022:

1) (update in the X1.3 flare & CME ...)
" THE NEXT CME MIGHT BE A DUD: Yesterday's X-class solar flare produced a CME (movie) with an Earth-directed component. NOAA analysts think it might be a dud: "The CME associated with the X1 flare was modeled and is unlikely to have any significant Earth impacts," they say. Nevertheless, we encourage aurora watchers to be alert for geomagnetic activity on April 2nd when the CME might arrive. (...)"

2) [mentioned before above]
"CME IMPACT SPARKS AURORAS IN THE USA: As predicted, a Cannibal CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 31st (0210 UT). The impact caused a G1-class geomagnetic storm--weaker than the G3 storm that was expected, but still enough to spark auroras across multiple northern-tier US states. "Last night we saw some amazing auroras in North Dakota," reports Elon Gane who sends this picture from the shore of Lake Darling:

Remarkably, this picture was taken using a cell phone---"my Samsung S22 Ultra," says Gane. "I was interested in how it would do and I'm pleasantly surprised by the result." (...)" [plus cf. previous post for more photos links ...]

&

3) Now:
" Solar wind
speed: 521.4 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1725 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 1211 UT Mar31
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1730 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

4) HOWEVER, I think we're still probably to see yet the high increases announced earlier ... (~700km/sec, 10x(proton densities) [perhaps ~60 or 70 (or more?) protons/cm³ ... ?/etc.] ... etc. ...) [& ~G2, G3 storms etc. (?) ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Missed a couple of interesting events. E.g. (posted April 15)
"SUBSIDING GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A geomagnetic storm that began on April 14th when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field is subsiding. At its apex, around 1800 UTC, the storm reached category G2--a moderately strong event. The only thing that prevented widespread aurora sightings was daylight. In Europe and North America the sun was out when the storm peaked."
&
" Solar wind
speed: 575.9 km/sec
density: 11.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 1847 UT Apr15
24-hr: M2 1149 UT Apr15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 15 Apr 22

Expand: labels | no labels

A very active sunspot is only days away from emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Also
Today (17 April 2022):
" X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: A big and very active sunspot complex emerged over the sun's northeastern limb yesterday. It has already produced an X1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast on April 17th at 03:34 UT:

A pulse of X-rays from the flare produced a strong shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia and Australia: map. Mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

The explosion almost certainly produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). The US Air Force detected a Type II solar radio burst shortly after the flare. Such bursts are produced by shock waves in the leading edges of CMEs. Fresh data from SOHO are expected to confirm the existence of a CME, probably not Earth-directed.

Meanwhile, get ready for more flares. This sunspot group has been active for more than a week, hurling CMEs and plumes of hot plasma into space from its location on the farside of the sun. Now it is turning to face Earth and shows no signs of slowing down. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Another increase in the solar wind speed ...

" Solar wind
speed: 522.7 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2154 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 2002 UT Apr17
24-hr: X1 0334 UT Apr17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2200 UT

Daily Sun: 17 Apr 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Emerging sunspots AR2993 and AR2994 are very active and pose a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

&

" Solar wind
speed: 532.7 km/sec
density: 13.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2210 UT "

B) Just recently I saw this article (about a research originally from ESA) that might explain [among other main things and issues] why and how our magnetic field is lately a bit more vulnerable perhaps e.g. to cracks due to existing solar winds (and e.g. radio bands are lately more easily affected may be) ...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/the...ening-and-scientists-don-t-know-why-1.4986480
The local magnetic field weakening (in certain area and magnitude) is also connected to some pole shifting/movement ... (the article explains it and the connection).

 

[Oldman too]

The local magnetic field weakening (in certain area and magnitude) is also connected to some pole shifting/movement ... (the article explains it and the connection).

Interestingly enough, the South Atlantic Anomaly is a favorite on the https://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/ESRS/HDEV/ site. When the ISS passes through that area at night, (like it just did) the cameras really light up from the radiation, especially during strong solar activity. Great article by the way!

 

[Oldman too]

SolO Cruise Phase First results paper describing Solar wind-Venus interactions. Full paper with no paywall.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2022/04/aa40954-21/aa40954-21.html

Context. Solar Orbiter is a European Space Agency mission with a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments to investigate the physical processes across the inner heliosphere. During the mission, the spacecraft is expected to perform multiple Venus gravity assist maneuvers while providing measurements of the Venusian plasma environment. The first of these occurred on 27 December 2020, in which the spacecraft measured the regions such as the distant and near Venus magnetotail, magnetosheath, and bow shock.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interestingly enough, the South Atlantic Anomaly is a favorite on the https://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/ESRS/HDEV/ site. When the ISS passes through that area at night, (like it just did) the cameras really light up from the radiation, especially during strong solar activity. Great article by the way!

Thanks for pointing that out. Amazing. I used to have an app when the Earth camera ISS feature was active. I saw all kinds of amazing things back then and I wish I knew about the South Atlantic Anomaly back then to see the results live, in real time that is ...

Also (speaking of storms and auroras), the use of cameras on line (e.g. such as the arctic cameras) has been proved useful too [if you're lucky enough - and since that I'm south enough ...].

 

[Oldman too]

I used to have an app when the Earth camera ISS feature was active.

They still have at least two Cams active, usually a Nadir view but they cycle to other views also. If you keep an eye on the ISS tracker you can get a good idea of when the timing is right for a SAA pass, the "watching now" count is an indicator of a good pass coming up also.
https://www.n2yo.com/space-station/ and https://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/ESRS/HDEV/ both work well although other sites carry the feeds also. unfortunately it's not like before IBM bought up ustream and you could "chat" with Kit while he was working the cams at ISS Mission control. He was a great "tour guide" and would pan and zoom the cams if you asked, that was an awesome feature and I miss it.
By the way, thanks for posting the Solar activity info, much appreciated.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

They still have at least two Cams active, usually a Nadir view but they cycle to other views also. If you keep an eye on the ISS tracker you can get a good idea of when the timing is right for a SAA pass, the "watching now" count is an indicator of a good pass coming up also.
https://www.n2yo.com/space-station/ and https://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/ESRS/HDEV/ both work well although other sites carry the feeds also. unfortunately it's not like before IBM bought up ustream and you could "chat" with Kit while he was working the cams at ISS Mission control. He was a great "tour guide" and would pan and zoom the cams if you asked, that was an awesome feature and I miss it.
By the way, thanks for posting the Solar activity info, much appreciated.

Thanks for that valuable info about ISS cams etc. . I need to find the time to update my apps/devices and ISS interest (I used to be more of a fan than now). I recall using the "watching now" feature and it even had an alarm alert for good passes etc.
Also, you're welcome about solar activity info updates. Here's today's concise update:

INTENSIFYING SOLAR ACTIVITY: The sun unleashed another X-class solar flare today, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia and Australia. Intensifying solar activity has resulted in more than 19 flares during the past 24 hours alone. Even farside sunspots are getting in on the act.

&

"The tally includes six M-class explosions and a powerful X2.2-class flare, described below. The fusillade is likely to continue as colossal sunspot complex AR2993-94 turns toward Earth in the days ahead."
" X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The sun just produced another X-flare. Earth-orbiting satellites detected the X2.2-class explosion on April 20th @ 0357 UT. Remarkably, it came from a farside sunspot. The source of the flare is AR2992, which yesterday rotated over the southwestern limb of the sun.

The sunspot is no longer visible at all. It is hidden behind the edge of the solar disk. Because the blast site was eclipsed by the body of the sun, the actual flare was almost certainly stronger than its nominal rating of X2.2. "

Solar wind speed right now at 408.5 Km/sec and proton density 11.54 protons/cm³
&
" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 1840 UT Apr20
24-hr: X2 0357 UT Apr20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1925 UT

Daily Sun: 20 Apr 22

Expand: labels | no labels

The most active sunspot on the sun isn't even in this image. AR2992 rotated over the sun's southwestern limb yesterday. Today it unleashed an X2.2-class flare from the farside of the sun. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Oldman too]

Thanks! I'm hoping for more Aurora displays, not to mention some clear skies.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

" STRONG EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: If you round up, it was an X-flare. On April 21st at 0157 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a strong M9.6-class solar flare. The source was sunspot complex AR2993-94, which is almost directly facing Earth.

Above: An M9.6-class solar flare on April 21st. Credit: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory​

Radiation from the flare caused a shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia and Australia: blackout map. Remarkably, this is the second day in a row the same region of Earth has experienced a radio blackout. It happened yesterday, too, in response to an even stronger X2.2 flare.

Shortly after the flare, the US Air Force reported a Type II solar radio burst--a natural form of radio noise produced by shock waves in the leading edge of a CME. This means we can expect a CME to emerge from the blast site. Stay tuned for updates. "

PLUS later:

"Update: A CME did emerge from the blast site, but it was faint and apparently off-target. It looks like it will miss Earth. NOAA analysts are evaluating the possibility of a glancing blow. Stay tuned."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

" X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare (May 10th @ 1355 UT). The source is "mixed-up" sunspot AR3006, described below. Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. (...)

A MIXED-UP MAGNETIC FIELD: Sunspot AR3006 is having an identity crisis. It is supposed to have a +/- magnetic field. Mostly it does. But deep inside the sunspot's primary core, the polarity is opposite: -/+. Note the circled region in this magnetic map of the sunspot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The mixture of magnetic polarities makes this sunspot interesting and dangerous. When opposite polarities bump together, it can light the fuse of magnetic reconnection--the explosive power source of solar flares. If AR3006 flares today, it will be geoeffective. The sunspot is directly facing Earth. "

[Thus] A CME and auroras might be expected (to "shake things up" a bit ...), hitting perhaps Earth in a couple of days or so - we'll see ... [currently, and around these days, low solar wind ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CMEs are here (since yesterday, but perhaps maxing today etc.), so I think "everything is possible" (I mean aurora-wise etc.) ...
Communications and internet problems have already been the case (e.g. since yesterday and the previous days etc.) and for several reasons ... ...
Picture today, right now, Sun May 15, 2022 (significantly increased solar wind etc.):

" Solar wind
speed: 560.5 km/sec
density: 9.16 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1257 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1217 UT May15
24-hr: M2 0008 UT May15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UT

Daily Sun: 15 May 22

Expand: labels | no labels

New sunspot AR3011 may be an old friend--the leading edge of active sunspot complex AR2993-94 returning from a two week trip around the farside of the sun. Credit: SDO/HMI "

and a bit earlier (~local max):
" Solar wind
speed: 566.3 km/sec
density: 8.40 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1246 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Aug. 17, 2022

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters have issued a geomagnetic storm watch for Aug. 18th and 19th when a series of CMEs is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. Individually, none of the impacts will be particularly direct or strong, but collectively they could cause a G3-class (strong) geomagnetic storm. The primary source of the CMEs, unstable sunspot AR3078, is still actively flaring today.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Sept. 4
1)
" SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a stream of solar wind hit Earth on Sept. 4th, sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm (now slowly subsiding). "The sky exploded with dancing shapes and pillars," reports Greg Ash of Ely, Minnesota, who photographed his son and daughter-in-law enjoying the light show:

"This is just a single image--not a composite," notes Ash. "The auroras were very visible to the naked eye."

In the USA, auroras stretched from New Hampshire to Michigan to Washington, highlighted by naked-eye pillars over Yellowstone National Park.

"It's been 7 years since I've seen the auroras this far south in Wisconsin," reports Tony Wilder, who sends this photo from Lacrosse:

"These lights were clear as day," he says.

The solar wind causing this storm is blowing faster than 600 km/s from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. NOAA forecasters knew it was coming and successfully predicted a G2-class storm today. However, the storm is lasting longer than expected, and geomagnetic activity could persist through Sept. 5th. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. "

2)
" Solar wind
speed: 655.3 km/sec
density: 12.99 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1145 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 2148 UT Sep04
24-hr: C8 1638 UT Sep04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 04 Sep 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR3089 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "B) Today Sept. 5:
1.
" SUBSIDING STORM: Yesterday's G2-class geomagnetic storm, described below, is almost over. Cracks in Earth's magnetic field that allowed solar wind to penetrate on Sept. 4th are closing on Sept. 5th. Only a few minor G1-class storms are expected today as the event winds down. (...)

A SCREAMING GOOD GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A stream of solar wind hit Earth on Sept. 4th, sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. When the auroras appeared over Oregon, "even people who didn't know about space weather saw them and started screaming!" reports Andrew Harvey, who sends this picture from Crown Point overlooking the Columbia River:

"It was a magnificent show," says Harvey. "The auroras became very bright to the naked eye."

The solar wind stream that caused the display blew out of a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. NOAA forecasters knew it was coming and successfully predicted a G2-class storm. However, the storm lasted longer than anyone expected--almost 24 hours. Auroras spread across the USA from Maine to Washington.

In Iceland, the auroras were so bright the landscape turned green:

"If this is how the season is starting, I can't wait to see what will happen next," says photographer Wioleta Gorecka of Kleifarvatn. "Last night taught me to dream."

These incredible displays were a combined result of two factors: (1) the solar wind was blowing very fast, at one point topping 700 km/s; and (2) a series of cracks opened in Earth's magnetic field, allowing the solar wind to penetrate deeply. It was a perfect G2-storm. "

2.
" Solar wind
speed: 557.6 km/sec
density: 10.55 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0909 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C6 0446 UT Sep05
24-hr: C8 1638 UT Sep04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0925 UT

Daily Sun: 05 Sep 22

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Departing sunspot AR3089 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[sophiecentaur]

. . . . .and when you think that the Earth subtends a very small arc to intercept this stuff and that it's going out in all other directions too during high solar activity.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

. . . . .and when you think that the Earth subtends a very small arc to intercept this stuff and that it's going out in all other directions too during high solar activity.

Very true ...

News: 1) Although humans are to blame for much of the ozone layer's depletion, observations of a type of aurora known as an isolated proton aurora have revealed a cause of ozone depletion that comes from space: Charged particles in plasma belched out by solar flares and coronal mass ejections also keep gnawing at the ozone layer. (see/based on article on space.com ...)
https://www.space.com/auroras-blast-hole-ozone-layer

2) Solar partial eclipse for Europe, today Tue 25 Oct, 2022 ... (e.g. see Monday's & Tue's spaceweather.com edition etc.)
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=10&year=2022

3) ... and while the Sun (posted today Mon) just swallowed two comets [over the weekend ...] ... (see same source as 2) ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Very true ...

News: 1) Although humans are to blame for much of the ozone layer's depletion, observations of a type of aurora known as an isolated proton aurora have revealed a cause of ozone depletion that comes from space: Charged particles in plasma belched out by solar flares and coronal mass ejections also keep gnawing at the ozone layer. (see/based on article on space.com ...)
https://www.space.com/auroras-blast-hole-ozone-layer

2) Solar partial eclipse for Europe, today Tue 25 Oct, 2022 ... (e.g. see Monday's & Tue's spaceweather.com edition etc.)
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=10&year=2022

3) ... and while the Sun (posted today Mon) just swallowed two comets [over the weekend ...] ... (see same source as 2) ...)

Making it a bit easier for you guys here on this extra post (cf. previous quoted one above etc. ...) :

SOLAR ECLIPSE AND SUNDIVING COMETS: The Moon is about to take a bite out of the sun with a partial solar eclipse on Oct. 25th. Almost all of Europe is in the eclipse zone. Also, the sun just swallowed two comets. Watch them evaporate--and get eclipse observing tips ... :

https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=10&year=2022

(Caution: do not look with unprotected naked eyes straight directly to the Sun. Use Special Eclipse Glasses or other Appropriate Valid Protection! ...)

" PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE ON OCT 25TH:The Moon is about to take a bite out of the sun. On Oct. 25th, a partial solar eclipse will be visible from Europe, the Middle East, parts of Asia and Africa: map. Almost all of Europe is in the eclipse zone with the deepest eclipse in the Scandinavian countries:

Image credit: GreatAmericanEclipse.com. See also their global eclipse map.​

Maximum eclipse occurs at 11:00 UT in northwest Russia where 86% of the solar disk is covered. There, the chill of the Moon's shadow will be felt on the ground as the sun transforms itself into a slender crescent. WARNING: Even the tiniest sliver of sun left uncovered by the Moon can hurt your eyes. Eclipse glasses are recommended for safety.

Observing tip: If you're in the eclipse zone, try looking down. Beneath a leafy tree, you might be surprised to find hundreds of crescent-shaped sunbeams:

Overlapping leaves create natural pinhole cameras, each one casting an image of the crescent-sun onto the ground beneath the canopy. Note the crescent-eyed turkey; partial eclipse shadow play is lots of fun.
(...) (...)

WATCH TWO COMETS DIVE INTO THE SUN: Over the weekend, the sun swallowed a comet. Correction: Make that two. Karl Battams of the US Naval Research Lab took a closer look at SOHO coronagraph images, and this is what he found:

"Saturday's bright comet turned out to have a smaller, leading companion," says Battams. "This isn't particularly uncommon. I'd estimate that at least 30% of the really bright sungrazers we see in SOHO coronagraph images end up having a small leading or trailing companion."

Both comets in Battams' movie are Kreutz sungrazers. These are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. Since SOHO was launched in 1995, the observatory has watched more than 4000 Kreutz fragments fall into the sun. None have survived.

Astronomers have long wondered if one day a whole cluster of Kreutz fragments might appear--a veritable squadron of comets dive-bombing the sun. Such a swarm could be concentrated around the location of the progenitor comet. However, no one knows if or when it would happen.

"We have absolutely no idea what the actual distribution of Kreutz comets looks like around their orbit," notes Battams. "Undoubtedly there are clusters, but it’s a several-century long path they're following and we've only been blessed with a ~25-yr window into that. So all we can do is just keep watching and counting." "

 

[sophiecentaur]

3) ... and while the Sun (posted today Mon) just swallowed two comets [over the weekend ...] ... (see same source as 2) ...)

I don't know what the Sun's capture cross section is but, to me, that indicates there must be a lot of comets out there.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I don't know what the Sun's capture cross section is but, to me, that indicates there must be a lot of comets out there.

True. And also indicates that the Sun is a really good focus/center/spot for/of Gravitational attraction ... (etc.).

News:
A) Nov. 3 & 4, 2022 : " MYSTERIOUS "AURORAS": Did Russia just launch an ICBM into a geomagnetic storm? That's one possible explanation for a strange blue light that appeared over Sweden yesterday. The phenomenon, which seems to defy orthodox aurora physics, might be a previously unrecognized form of Northern Lights. We're hoping that Arctic sky watchers will submit their photos to help unravel the mystery."
//

B) Today, Saturday Nov. 5, 2022 : "MYSTERY SOLVED? On Nov. 3rd, Russia's nuclear submarine Generalissimus Suvorovtest-fired an ICBM from beneath the White Sea. This might be linked to a "blue aurora" widely seen from northern Sweden and Norway on the same date. The sightings are described below. The Russian military has issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) for additional missile firings through Nov. 5th. Sky watchers in the area should remain alert for unusual auroras."

(source: [/e.g. see] today's & yesterday's edition of spaceweather.com ...)

 

[sophiecentaur]

And also indicates that the Sun is a really good focus/center/spot for/of Gravitational attraction .

Up to a point but you have to remember that every massive object will attract stuff but it will be in orbit (like us) - not plunging in. Most 'visiting' objects like comets will be in a non-colliding orbit. The actual distance from the Sun that will involve capture of a very high speed object (arriving from the Kuiper belt, say) will not be vastly greater than the actual radius of the star, I suggest. There will be a distance (perihelion) at which some comets will start to disintegrate irreversibly and a lot of it could end up merging with the Sun. The rest will carry on approximately on the original orbit but not be captured. Next time round, there's a chance that it will collide.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Up to a point but you have to remember that every massive object will attract stuff but it will be in orbit (like us) - not plunging in. Most 'visiting' objects like comets will be in a non-colliding orbit. The actual distance from the Sun that will involve capture of a very high speed object (arriving from the Kuiper belt, say) will not be vastly greater than the actual radius of the star, I suggest. There will be a distance (perihelion) at which some comets will start to disintegrate irreversibly and a lot of it could end up merging with the Sun. The rest will carry on approximately on the original orbit but not be captured. Next time round, there's a chance that it will collide.

Absolutely. I totally agree. And you got the Mechanics right. It's just that more massive objects (as a function of the radius[, or the radius considered as just a cross-section involved patameter ...]) would make a stronger & better pole of attraction and/or disintegration (especially after multiple visits, that could eventually tear appart smaller and/or less solid or massive objects, especially like comets ...). Even Jupiter & Saturn (in our Solar System) are such "massive poles of attraction", although far smaller and less massive than the Sun, because of their relative sizes etc. compared to their neighboring planets etc. (e.g. Like Mars & Earth ... – lucky us! ; the Sun, Jupiter & Saturn take more of that asteroid & comet traffic [attracted more to them etc.], acting as a good Gravitational Shield for us etc., in most cases, depending of course on the comet's or asteroid's path & initial conditions of the corresponding mechanics problem ...). But in any case, yes, comets (and asteroids) do hit planets too! ... [And, theoretically, it could happen (though in rare cases) to any planet too, no matter how small or massive, depending again on the mechanics of the problem/path/initial conditions (e.g. for direction & velocity etc.) ... ].

I remember back in July 1994, while still in Grad school, watching live [on line - via the University's on line telescopes etc. (in a computer screen)] the disintegration and crashing into Jupiter of the Comet "Shoemaker-Levy 9", of which its last visit to our solar system turned out to be the fatal & final one ...
[The Comet, originally discovered back in 1993 by the two astronomers that the comet was named after, had begun disintergrsted in 1992, and finally crashed in July 1994 ...]
["Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 (formally designated D/1993 F2) broke apart in July 1992 and collided with Jupiter in July 1994, providing the first direct observation of an extraterrestrial collision of Solar System objects. (...) This generated a large amount of coverage in the popular media, and the comet was closely observed by astronomers worldwide. The collision provided new information about Jupiter and highlighted its possible role in reducing space debris in the inner Solar System."]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Furthermore, in a primitive time of our Solar System, called the "Comets' times/era", the Comets were a lot lot more (compared to our times now etc.), and even Earth was highly bombarded by them ... . Basically, that's how we got OUR WATER ! ...

 

[sophiecentaur]

@Stavros Kiri WATER yesss.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

X-FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Solar activity reached high levels this weekend with an X1-class solar flare on Feb. 11th. A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing a strong shortwave radio blackout over South America. More flares may be in the offing as active sunspot AR3217 turns toward Earth.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME is heading for Earth, and it could spark an unusually good display of Northern Lights when it arrives on Feb. 17-18. NOAA forecasters say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible. During such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

​ BIG FLARE LAUNCHES "SOLAR TSUNAMI": Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a major X2.2-class solar flare. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio blackout on Earth and launched a tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere. A CME is almost certainly emerging from the blast site, but we don't yet know if it is heading for Earth. See e.g. Spaceweather.com for updates.

​

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from today's X2.2-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"CHAIN REACTION" EXPLOSION: Yesterday {or the day before yesterday - depending on time zones etc.}, a magnetic filament on the sun erupted, setting off a chain reaction that included a solar flare, two types of radio blackout, and a potentially Earth-directed CME. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 27th.

Above: A magnetic filaments lifts off on Feb. 24th, the first step in a chain reaction of space weather events.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: Earth's magnetic field is reverberating from a CME strike on Feb. 26th, which triggered strong G3-class geomagnetic storms and widespread [mindblowing] auroras across northern Europe and North America. Last night in the USA, Northern Lights descended as far south as Colorado. Another CME could arrive later today, re-energizing and extending the storm.

Above: "The auroras were mind blowing!" says photographer Sacha Layos, who photographed the light show from Fairbanks, Alaska. Check the Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery for the latest sightings.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Mon. March 13, 2023 (this past Monday) "EXTREMELY RARE" CME: Today, a bright CME flew away from the farside of the sun. Its high velocity appears to put it in the category of "Extremely Rare," a decade-class event. The explosion was so powerful, it peppered Earth with energetic particles even though the CME was not Earth-directed. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event is underway as a result of the blast. (...) [for more see spaceweather.com of that day issue and/or of the follow up days ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm is in progress on March 23rd as solar wind flows through a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. If the crack remains open long enough, sky watchers in northern-tier US states could see auroras tonight. Also, an amateur radio astronomer in Florida has observed a solar radio burst *at midnight.

 

[George Jones]

Last night I saw lots of "curtains" in the sky from my inside my city of 80,000 at 54N.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Last night I saw lots of "curtains" in the sky from my inside my city of 80,000 at 54N.

Wow! Sounds great!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Last night, auroras spread across the United States as far south as New Mexico during a severe (category G4) geomagnetic storm. Some sky watchers also saw a luminous ribbon named "STEVE," which is not an aurora.

 

[Spinnor]

A second giant 'hole' has appeared on the sun, and it could send 1.8 million mph solar winds towards Earth​

https://news.yahoo.com/second-giant-hole-appeared-sun-133928507.html

https://i.insider.com/6419c14250c7b20018f16a0d?width=900&format=mp4

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A second giant 'hole' has appeared on the sun, and it could send 1.8 million mph solar winds towards Earth​

https://news.yahoo.com/second-giant-hole-appeared-sun-133928507.html

https://i.insider.com/6419c14250c7b20018f16a0d?width=900&format=mp4

View attachment 324130

Thanks for the heads up ! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

AURORAS IN FLORIDA: Auroras during last week's extreme geomagnetic storm were even more widespread than previously thought. A new photo shows them creeping over the horizon in central Florida at latitude +29 degrees. Like all low-latitude auroras, they were red. (...)

Red auroras photographed from the Chiefland Astro Village in central Florida. Photo credit: Bill Williams.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

+ new today (2nd post in a row) Wed., 29 March, 2023:

YET ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Today, the sun produced another X-class solar flare with a strong shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia. The explosion was the 7th X-class event of 2023. This matches the total number of X-flares in all of 2022, and it's only March. What does this mean for the intensification of Solar Cycle 25? (...)

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from today's X1.2-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory