fresh_42 said:
I wonder whether there are long-term prognoses considering NZ (before the entire landmass will build a next super-continent once more). Will the southern island be drawn apart or will only the mountains get higher?
Mountain building in the South Is's Southern Alps is still an active and ongoing process. The movement along the main section of the Alpine Fault is an approx. 3:1 ratio, that is, for every 3 metres of horizontal movement, there is 1 metre of vertical movement. These figures immediately tell us that AP isn't a pure strike-slip nor is it a pure thrust type of fault, rather it is an oblique slip fault with the main part of the motion being a strike-slip.
Not knowing the level of geology knowledge of those reading this, just a little diversion on fault motions/types ...
Fig.1
Note the angle/direction of the slope of the fault plane arbitrary as they can vary greatly
OK, let's continue... This will be a general overview of tectonics in New Zealand unless more detail is asked for
Even on a large scale, the tectonics of the Pacific and Australian plate boundary, that New Zealand sits astride, is quite complex. Referring to Fig.2 below and starting with the North Island, it can be seen that all of the Nth Is. sits on the Australian Plate and that the Pacific Plate is subducting be low it. Plate motions are quite significant in this region at around 50 - 60mm / year and since this isn't a continuous movement at the main fault interface, it means that there is an ongoing build-up of stress that is released in periodic large quakes.
As noted on the diagram, the volcanic plateau is a region of extensional faulting as the region is stretched. This thins the crust significantly and accounts for the large amount of volcanic activity of the region. The volcanoes are fed by the melted oceanic floor of the Pacific Plate as it sub-ducts to the 300 - 600km depth.
The southern section of the North Island is noted for its long parallel faults which are an "assumed" continuation of the same series of parallel faults of the NE South Island.
The last major fault in this region to have moved was the West Waiararapa Fault which is the eastern most of the faults. That event occurred in 1855 and had an estimated magnitude of M8.1. This was calculated from the damage and the offsets on the fault (12m horizontal and 7m vertical)
Fig.2
courtesy of GNS
Fig.3
Cross-section, West to East, across the centre of the Nth Is.
As we move down into the South Is., the complexity of the tectonics increases somewhat.
The NE corner of the island is dominated by a series of major parallel faults. From west to east, the Wairau Fault, the Awatere Fault, the Clarence Fault and the Hope Fault. These are all splay faults of the main Alpine Fault to the south-west and runs down the backbone of the South Is..
These NE faults are all oblique thrust faults produced by the steep subduction of the Pacific Plate under the region, see Fig.4
Fig.4
courtesy of GNS
The major subduction boundary is along the eastern most fault, the Hope Fault and its smaller associated ones. These were the primary source of the recent M 7.8 event in Nov. 2016. All land/crust to the west of the Hope Fault is part of the Australian Plate. As shown in the offset streams and ridges in the first post of this thread, it is not a pure thrust regime as there is also horizontal offset.
Moving SW into the main Alpine Fault Zone, the thrust direction completely reverses and now the Pacific Plate is riding up and over the Australian Plate. This is an oblique slip system, with the mentioned earlier, 3 : 1 ratio of strike slip to reverse thrust. Here is a cross-section across the central South Island
Fig.5
Finally down into the SW corner of the South Island. The tectonics again reverse to a subduction zone. The Alpine Fault has now left land and is a km or two offshore and parallels the shore till it leaves the New Zealand region and continues down towards Macquarie Island. The offshore plate boundary is primarily a steeply dipping reverse thrust where the Australian Plate is subducting under the SW corner of the South Island.
Fig.6
Shows earthquakes on that steeply dipping fault zone
courtesy of GNS
As can be seen, the active subduction zone goes down to around 150 km, substantially less than the 600 km under the North Island.I will leave it at that for this post. It has covered a fair bit of information
feel free to ask more questions or for any clarifications
Dave
PS ...
@fresh_42 ... out of curiosity, if you don't mind telling ... where are you located ? just country ?