News Will Israel's Strikes Escalate to Full-Scale War?

[EL]

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13532571,00.html
What will this lead to? Are we heading for a full scale war?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Israel has information that Lebanese guerrillas who captured two Israeli soldiers are trying to transfer them to Iran, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said. Spokesman Mark Regev did not disclose the source of his information.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/13/D8IR6J401.html

Hello WW3

 

[Astronuc]

That would be consistent with Hezbollah - they apparently receive support from Iran.

I am not sure about WWIII, but it will certainly escalate hostilities in the region.

 

[Gokul43201]

From Greg's link:

Warplanes punched holes in the runways of Beirut's international airport and two military air bases, attacks that could draw the Lebanese army into the conflict.

Oh crap!

 

[MeJennifer]

That would be consistent with Hezbollah - they apparently receive support from Iran.

I am not sure about WWIII, but it will certainly escalate hostilities in the region.

Will escalate?
So the attack from Israel is not an escalated hostility to you?

 

[Rach3]

Deja vu all over again. Nothing new.

On topic, does anyone know what the UN military is doing in all this? Supposedly they have 2,000 peace warriors along the (very narrow) Israeli-Lebanese border, yet there's nothing in the news about what it is they do exactly. I don't think they have a specific mandate for this event?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNIFIL

 

[siddharth]

Deja vu all over again. Nothing new.

True. Here's a Timeline which describes the conflict
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/country_profiles/819200.stm"

On topic, does anyone know what the UN military is doing in all this? Supposedly they have 2,000 peace warriors along the (very narrow) Israeli-Lebanese border, yet there's nothing in the news about what it is they do exactly. I don't think they have a specific mandate for this event?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNIFIL

I don't know if they have a mandate for this either. Currently, they are assessing the situation.

While the Israeli army has amassed thousands of soldiers on the border, no Israeli ground troops have been reported within Lebanese territory so far, according to Richard Morzynski, spokesman for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Many Lebanese fear that Israel will reinstall a buffer zone along the border, as it did from 1982 to 2000. “UNIFIL is in the process of establishing facts on the ground,” said Morzynski. “We’ve been trying to establish a ceasefire, but for that you need two parties. The Israeli position is clear: no discussion until the two soldiers are freed.”

(from http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=54594&SelectRegion=Middle_East&SelectCountry=LEBANON")

 

[devious_]

"The soldiers need to be returned." - Bush

What about the 10,000 Arab prisoners, including Palestinian officials, held by Israel?

 

[Evo]

What about the 10,000 Arab prisoners, including Palestinian officials, held by Israel?

Were they kidnapped? If not, then it's not a valid comparison.

 

[devious_]

In most cases it is a perfectly legitimate comparison: <insert IDF or Hezbollah> storms in, overpowers, and imprisons.

 

[George Jones]

Were they kidnapped?

Most certainly some of them were.

The Palestinian raid that produced the initial kidnapping was motivated at least partially by recent incidents in which Israelis killed Palestinian civilians.

Palestianians kill Israeli civilians. Israelis kill Palestinian civilians. Israelis kidnap Palestinians. Palestinians kidnap Israelis.

And, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,605798,00.html" , they are the same people.

 

[Evo]

Most certainly some of them were.

The Palestinian raid that produced the initial kidnapping was motivated at least partially by recent incidents in which Israelis killed Palestinian civilians.

Palestianians kill Israeli civilians. Israelis kill Palestinian civilians. Israelis kidnap Palestinians. Palestinians kidnap Israelis.

And, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,605798,00.html" , they are the same people.

Yeah, but you don't kidnap Israeli soldiers. I don't see Israel backing down on this. I think they're all a bit crazy over there. It's frightening.

 

[Astronuc]

Will escalate?
So the attack from Israel is not an escalated hostility to you?

Umm, yes the attack by Israel on Hezbollah is an escalation, as is the attack by Israel on the airports. I did not say anything to the contrary.

AFAIK, Israel only attacked because two of its soldiers were kidnapped, otherwise Israel would not be attacking the territory of Lebanon. Israel for the most part attacks when its territory or people are attacked by gunfire, bombs, rockets, . . .

I was thinking of the potential for other parties, e.g. Syria or Iran to get invovled. I think Jordan and Egyptian governments would not wish to be involved, but there will be enormous pressure from various factions in those countries to become invovled. This will certainly help al Qaida to recruit more members.

 

[MeJennifer]

I was thinking of the potential for other parties, e.g. Syria or Iran to get invovled.

I see.

So do you consider that a hostility while Israel is simply defending itself?

 

[George Jones]

It's frightening.

I agree.

I had hoped that something would be worked out with respect to first kidnapped soldier, but with the players that the latest kidnappings bring onto the pitch, I have no idea where this is going.

 

[Skyhunter]

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/13/D8IR6J401.html

Hello WW3

It was just a feeling but when I heard of this yesterday I got the feeling that this could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

 

[Astronuc]

I see.

Apparently you don't - you keep misinterpreting my statements - apparently deliberately, which could be construed as hostile.

So do you consider that a hostility while Israel is simply defending itself?

Do I consider what a hostility?

Certainly kidnapping is a hostile act. Shooting and firing rockets at people is a hostile act, when it is not in self-defense.

Do I necessarily agree with Israel's position? No, not entirely.

Do I believe that Israel has the right to defend itself? Certainly, as does any other people.

Do I believe that the Palestinians have the right of self-determination, as well as the right to have their own state? Certainly.

I think Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and a host of other organizations need to renounce violence and stop attacking Israel. I think Israel should show more restraint in certain cases.

 

[Rach3]

I agree.

I had hoped that something would be worked out with respect to first kidnapped soldier, but with the players that the latest kidnappings bring onto the pitch, I have no idea where this is going.

First kidnapping was by militants associated with Hamas (Palestinian group), the new one was carried out by Hezbollah (Lebanese). Hezbollah is strongly affiliated with Iran (wiki), which makes this conflict very interesting.

 

[Rach3]

Here's an interesting bit of analysis:

The crisis came at a time of deep divisions over international pressure to disarm Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran.

Hezbollah may get a boost from supporters in resisting the pressure. But the split between the supporters and opponents of Syria, Lebanon's former power broker, could be aggravated by the Israeli offensive and lead to the anti-Syrian government's collapse.

Syria will be the biggest winner if that happens. Damascus has been uncomfortable with the status quo since the February 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Syria had to withdraw its troops after a 29-year military presence in its tiny neighbor, and a U.N. investigation has implicated some of its top officials in the assassination.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Lebanon_Mood.html

 

[Rach3]

Oil is soaring - opened at $75.20 today on NYMEX, up to $76.88 (USD) now and still going!

http://www.nymex.com/WS_cso.aspx
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=$77+oil&btnG=Search+News

 

[Manchot]

Well, I found this article interesting:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13848003/

Between this and the Iraq War, and we wonder why people are willing to die to destroy us?

 

[Rach3]

Oil is soaring - opened at $75.20 today on NYMEX, up to $76.88 (USD) now and still going!

http://www.nymex.com/WS_cso.aspx

WOW! A high of $78.15!

http://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=wn&q=$78 oil

 

[Evo]

Well, I found this article interesting:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13848003/

Between this and the Iraq War, and we wonder why people are willing to die to destroy us?

"The European Union called Israel's attacks on Lebanon “disproportionate." Of course it is disproportionate. It's crazy. But everything every country does over there seems disproportionate. Is it never going to end? Is it impossible for these people to be rational?

A friend of mine has a PHD in Computer Science and lives in Manhattan, he's Israeli. His family is there and he can't go back with this going on. It's not the people, it's the government.

 

[Skyhunter]

Well, I found this article interesting:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13848003/

Between this and the Iraq War, and we wonder why people are willing to die to destroy us?

Nice to see that as usual, the Bush administration is on top...er...uh...aware of the crisis.

What role has the U.S. played? Today, U.S. diplomat David Welch arrived in Israel, but critics say too late — 17 days after the first Israeli soldier was captured.

And Rice has not been to Israel or the Palestinian territories since last November.

Why do I get the feeling that America has lost it's edge as a world leader?

What is the administration so focused on that they seem to ignore everything not part of their agenda until it reaches crisis stage.

God I hope the midterms result in subpoena power so that we can at least find out what they are doing that is so important.

 

[Astronuc]

Critics say U.S. has not paid enough attention to Israel-Lebanon relations

from link posted by Manchot. Hilary Clinton was blasting the Bush administration over the lack of attention to Israel and the ME.

Bush is blaming Syria, and Rice is blaming Iran.

There won't be a WWIII out this. The powers that be have a vested interest in maintaining economic stability.

The US trade deficit increased by more than $63 billion in May, the sixth-largest trade deficit in history, for an annual rate of about $760 billion dollars. High oil prices had an impact.

 

[MeJennifer]

Do I believe that Israel has the right to defend itself? Certainly, as does any other people.

People?
Do you mean country or is it peoples against peoples?

 

[Astronuc]

People?
Do you mean country or is it peoples against peoples?

Well, that's a good question. It is hard to tell sometimes.

Countries contain people, but contries are 'managed' or 'controlled' by governments, which are composed of people.

The problem it seems is that the vast majority of people in the countries involved in bilateral or multilateral conflict would prefer to live in peace. Unfortunately, there appear to be minorities which have vested interests in maintaining or escalating hostilities.

People fight and make war. Only people can stop fighting and prevent war.

 

[MeJennifer]

But everything every country does over there seems disproportionate. Is it never going to end? Is it impossible for these people to be rational?

Depends what one would define as rational.
The folks in the Middle East are motivated strongly by religious and ethnic considerations.

As far as I am concerned they can fight and kill each other.
I think that we, we as in the Western world, should simply leave them in their mutual hate. We certainly cannot solve it, and it is not our problem.
Anyway that's my personal opinion, I am sure others will strongly disagree.

 

[siddharth]

The folks in the Middle East are motivated strongly by religious and ethnic considerations.

As far as I am concerned they can fight and kill each other.
I think that we, we as in the Western world, should simply leave them in their mutual hate. We certainly cannot solve it, and it is not our problem.

Ouch! 10 char limit

 

[Yonoz]

Hi everyone,
I hope I can clear this up a little, this conflict has caught me in the middle of my uni exams. I thought I'd pop into see what everyone's thoughts are about this.
Since the IDF's long overdue pullout of Lebanon in PM Barak's term, Hizbullah, under Nasrallah's brilliant leadership, has formed a formidable array of ground-ground rockets. These rockets are hidden near their predetermined launch sites, operated by Hizbullah men residing nearby. These hideouts are scattered all over Lebanon from Beirut to the border, wherever is convenient - inside villages, or in the narrow valleys and dense vegetation common in the region, making them hard to target by a modern airforce. The rest of Hizbullah's infrastructure includes posts right on top of the Israeli-Lebanese border, in some places barely a few metres over an israeli road much traveled by civilians. Hizbullah maintains a system of weapons caches and command centres, though these are most often abandoned at the first sign of trouble. Many of these have been built right on the perimeter of UNIFIL bases - quite infuriating. This is one of the reasons why Israelis are so weary of "peacekeeping" forces.
Early Wednesday morning, Hizbullah started shelling Israeli villages and bases near the Lebanese border. At a few minutes past nine, an Israeli border patrol on the Israeli side of the border was attacked. Three soldiers were killed and two are missing. In the ensuing pursuit inside Lebanon another body was found, and an Israeli tank hit an anti-tank charge was destroyed, all crewmembers killed. Another force attempting to secure the bodies was fired upon by a sniper. One soldier died and two more were injured. This well-thought operation takes months of careful preparation. It has been attempted several times before. In one attempt the kidnapped soldiers died and their bodies were returned together with a captive Israeli colonel turned drug dealer, in return for a large number of prisoners and bodies of Hizbullah men killed in action. Another attempt resulted in failure with several guerrilas dead. Over the last year, Israel has returned the bodies of two Hizbullah guerrilas as an act of trust-building. So much for that.
The event catches Israel in a delicate time. For the first time, this is a government with few ex-generals. The PM and Security Minister were criticized for not having their competitors' military background. Nasrallah, who has a great understanding of Israel, knows they are trapped in a very difficult situation. If they do not respond, they will certainly not be re-elected - but that's probably only in four years' time. The biggest problem Olmert, Peretz and Israel itself are facing is the loss of its detterence. While an Israeli response would mean the start of a violent game of table tennis, there is really no alternative. If the IDF can find ways of destroying Hizbullah's arsenal, it will probably end well for Israel. If Hizbullah managed to tire out the Israeli public, well - that will never happen ;) Hizbullah's demands include the release of convicted murderers, in particular Samir Kuntar, who killed a father and his two daughters in a cold-blooded terrorist attack in '79.
While the Lebanese government is probably the last place Nasrallah looks to for instructions, it is true they have allowed the current situation to arise. Hizbullah has been openly operating and arming itself. Furthermore, Hizbullah takes an active role in the Lebanese government. They have a minister and much of the parliament. So on one hand they are supported by the Lebanese public, are allowed to arm themselves and govern much of the country, but on the other hand no one is responsible for their actions.
The IDF's initial response of detroying bridges and roads and commencing a naval blockade is an attempt to prevent the transport of the kidnapped soldiers. The rest I assume is targeted at Hizbullah weapons and munitions. Hizbullah in return has been firing at Israeli cities and villages, killing two civilians and injuring over a hundred. Yesterday evening saw Iranian made rockets landing in Haifa - Israel's largest port city containing the nation's petrochemical processing heart. Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets over Beirut asking civilians to stay away from Hizbullah posts and offices. Those were attacked a few hours later.

 

[Astronuc]

Yonoz, thanks for your perspective.

 

[Gokul43201]

Yonoz, does Hizbullah have access to the Lebanese airforce? What could be the reason for cratering runways in the airport at Beirut?

 

[Astronuc]

Yonoz, does Hizbullah have access to the Lebanese airforce? What could be the reason for cratering runways in the airport at Beirut?

I think that would have to do with preventing Hizbullah from transporting the two kidnapped soldiers to Iran, based upon Yonoz's comments about the bombing of infrastructure to prevent transport of the soldiers from the border area. I would imagine though, that Hizbullah would try to go through Syria then (Damascus airport).

 

[Gokul43201]

Is it common belief that a group of terrorists can "escort" a pair of Israeli captives past the check-in, airport security and the flight crew without having to worry about being detained?

I can easily imagine extraction over ground - but boarding an international flight?

 

[Yonoz]

Is it common belief that a group of terrorists can "escort" a pair of Israeli captives past the check-in, airport security and the flight crew without having to worry about being detained?

I can easily imagine extraction over ground - but boarding an international flight?

That airport isn't really JFK or LAX. Hizbullah uses that airport to bring in some of their weapons. I don't think they go through check-in or airport security like you and I. I imagine it would be quite easy to smuggle two drugged bodies onto a private jet. Elhannan Tannenbaum, the drug smuggler I mentioned earlier, was actually lured into another country and was smuggled into Lebanon.

 

[Gokul43201]

Thanks for the clarification. Is it your opinion that the entire airport management is systemically complicit and supporting of their illegal traffic, or that Hizbullah has a small number of "contacts" that help them at the risk of imprisonment?

 

[Yonoz]

Thanks for the clarification. Is it your opinion that the entire airport management is systemically complicit and supporting of their illegal traffic, or that Hizbullah has a small number of "contacts" that help them at the risk of imprisonment?

Hizbullah is often described (last night I heard it on BBC) as a state within a state. They essentially govern parts of Beirut and most of southern Lebanon. Entering Hizbullah controlled areas sometimes involves passing through Hizbullah roadblocks. I imagine that smuggling would be possible by bribes or plain threats to the right individuals. It isn't wise for any Lebanese to get in Hizbullah's way.

 

[Yonoz]

I think that would have to do with preventing Hizbullah from transporting the two kidnapped soldiers to Iran, based upon Yonoz's comments about the bombing of infrastructure to prevent transport of the soldiers from the border area. I would imagine though, that Hizbullah would try to go through Syria then (Damascus airport).

That's probably true. However, once the kidnapped soldiers are moved it is easier to find them by various means. A car or a boat can be stopped and searched, a plane cannot. This is why Lebanese ports were left untouched. Furthermore, Syria would be taking a major risk by allowing it to be tied to the kidnapping. They go to great lengths to hide their involvement in such matters. The highway to Damascus was also bombed.

 

[Astronuc]

Here is a Wikipedia article on the matter. It is not necessarily neutral.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_crisis

If people in the Beqaa (Bekaa) Valley are still producing hashish and opium poppies, then I imagine that those folks have ties to the international Black Market - which is globally active - and that is how groups like Hizbullah can easily obtain financing, arms and munitions.

 

[Yonoz]

Here is a Wikipedia article on the matter. It is not necessarily neutral.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_crisis

If people in the Beqaa (Bekaa) Valley are still producing hashish and opium poppies, then I imagine that those folks have ties to the international Black Market - which is globally active - and that is how groups like Hizbullah can easily obtain financing, arms and munitions.

It's more than just financing, it's another weapon they have against Israel. These days it's much more difficult, but during the Lebanese occupation Hizbullah would smuggle drugs (back then their production was also controlled by the Syrian army) into Israel. Last year an army tracker was indicted after smuggling drugs and perhaps more for them.
Nearly all of their financing and munitions are supplied by Iran though.

 

[Yonoz]

There is one more thing I would like to clarify: Israel has no interest in crippling the Lebanese government. It's quite clear what would happen in the void left.

 

[Gokul43201]

There is one more thing I would like to clarify: Israel has no interest in crippling the Lebanese government. It's quite clear what would happen in the void left.

A big question is: Is the Lebanese Govt going to rally behind Hizbullah (spurred no doubt, by the Hizb members already sitting in the Govt) or are they going to turn against them for dragging Lebanon into the conflict? Hey, why not just provide safe transit of the problem (ie: the captors and captives) into Damascus and then convince Israel that they're facing the wrong way? The present Lebanese Govt isn't, especially after the Hariri killing, very fond of Syria.

 

[Yonoz]

A big question is: Is the Lebanese Govt going to rally behind Hizbullah (spurred no doubt, by the Hizb members already sitting in the Govt) or are they going to turn against them for dragging Lebanon into the conflict? Hey, why not just provide safe transit of the problem (ie: the captors and captives) into Damascus and then convince Israel that they're facing the wrong way? The present Lebanese Govt isn't, especially after the Hariri killing, very fond of Syria.

A few moments ago I saw a Lebanese government official anouncing the Lebanese government is ready to negotiate via a 3rd party. A reporter immediately asked him "how can you negotiate about something a few moments ago you said you have nothing to do with?". He answered "The situation needs to be dealt with and the government should be the one to deal with it". I cannot speak for the Lebanese people but my impression is that there is a lot of resentment against Hizbullah. As I mentioned, Syria will not agree to be involved, as it will prove they still control much in Lebanon. They're quite happy about the current situation, BTW, which personally worries me, but Israel will not attack them as they have been granted a defensive "umbrella" by Ahmedinajad. The last thing Israel wants is to start a war.
Hizbulla will not divulge any details to the Lebanese government about the kidnapped soldiers as that would probably compromise their secrecy, Israeli intelligence has a far reach.

 

[Yonoz]

A few moments ago Israeli warplanes bombed Hizbulla HQ in south Beirut. Israeli TV reports Nasrallah was in the building that was bombed, his status is unclear.
The IDF Chief of Staff has said that Nasrallah was not the target. Nasralla spoke on the phone to TV reporters

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

CNN also is reporting an Israeli Naval ship was hit by rockets. Hizbullah is declaring open war.

 

[wolram]

A few moments ago Israeli warplanes bombed Hizbulla HQ in south Beirut. Israeli TV reports Nasrallah was in the building that was bombed, his status is unclear.
The IDF Chief of Staff has said that Nasrallah was not the target. Nasralla spoke on the phone to TV reporters

It just came over the radio that he was not in the building.

 

[Astronuc]

Hizbullah is declaring open war.

After the fact? It seems as if their actions yesterday were a declaration of war.

I wonder if this was planned in conjunction with the Hamas action and Israeli response in Gaza?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

After the fact? It seems as if their actions yesterday were a declaration of war.

Well, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has officially announced it via audio tape.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has officially announced it via audio tape.

I guess it's a matter of Shoot First, then make a Declaration of War!

Still, I have to wonder if this was coordinated with Hamas. Then Israel is being attacked on two fronts - in the south on the border with Gaza, and in the north with Hizbullah.

 

[Bystander]

(snip)Still, I have to wonder if this was coordinated with Hamas. (snip)

Unlikely --- coincidental "business as usual."

Edit: possibly "opportunistic, copy-cat one-upsmanship."