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Wordle 1 281 2/6

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4 left after first guess: BLADE, GLADE, PLANE, SLAVE. An independent filter would have guaranteed a solution in 3. Picking BLADE or GLADE was a possible 2 with a 3 if the other was the solution. A 3 or a 4 would result for PLANE or SLAVE.

Given recent solutions, BLADE & GLADE seemed more likely. Hence going for minimising expectation value even if technically risking a 4.
 
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Wordle 1,281 3/6

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Orodruin said:
Wordle 1 281 2/6

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My situation today was slightly different from yours. After word 1 there were 4 candidates left. Two of them had the same 4 last letters and either one could be a filter for a possible 2 and a guaranteed 3. I chose the one with the wrong first letter.
 
Wordle 1,281 4/6

⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛ [SONAR] 75 left
⬛🟨⬛⬛🟨 [CETYL] filter - 8 left: ABLED AMBLE BLADE EAGLE FABLE GLADE LADLE VALVE
🟨⬛🟨🟨🟩 [AMBLE] filter - 1 left
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 [BLADE]

The proposed filter for the 3rd guess was BUDGE, but I decided to do some brain work to identify one from the possible answers.

ABLED (ending with ED), LADLE (the letters are too common), and VALVE (the word is too specialized) didn't look like good possibilities. AMBLE seemed to be the appropriate choice for separating the others.
 
Up above, @Orodruin suggested SUITE and ROYAL as seed words, so I thought I'd give those a try.

Wordle 1,281 6/6

⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 SUITE
⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨 ROYAL
⬜⬜🟩🟨🟩 hmm, WHALE
⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜ I'm guessing its **ADE... MEDIC as a filter
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩 of BLADE and GLADE I pick GLADE
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Oh well, must be BLADE
 
gmax137 said:
Up above, @Orodruin suggested SUITE and ROYAL as seed words, so I thought I'd give those a try.
I said I used to use them as seeds. I changed about a month or two back. I now use ALERT and SCION (unless the first already narrows the solution down a lot like today)
 
Wordle 1 282 5/6

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⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 Doh! Misremembered which word was already excluded …
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 The word I thought was already used …

Should have had it in three … streak still on though
 
Wordle 1,283 4/6

⬛🟩⬛⬛⬛ [PALER] 38 left
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛ [MINTY] filter - 2 left: FAUNA SAUNA
⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 [FAUNA] most probable because of the letter F
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 [SAUNA]

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 42/25 - 62.7%/37.3%
 
jack action said:
Wordle 1,283 4/6

⬛🟩⬛⬛⬛ 38 left
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛ filter - 2 left:
⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 most probable because
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most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 42/25 - 62.7%/37.3%
I do not understand how you define "most probable". You say in the spoiler that the first of the two words is most probable because of its first letter.

Here are the facts. The letters in positions 2-5 re the same. There are only two words in the entire list, picked or unpicked, that match these same letters in positions 2-5. Neither has been picked until now. It seems to me that if I stick my hand in the bag of all unpicked words, there is a 50-50 probability of pulling out either one of the two candidates. How does the first letter enter the picture?
 
kuruman said:
I do not understand how you define "most probable". You say in the spoiler that the first of the two words is most probable because of its first letter.

Here are the facts. The letters in positions 2-5 re the same. There are only two words in the entire list, picked or unpicked, that match these same letters in positions 2-5. Neither has been picked until now. It seems to me that if I stick my hand in the bag of all unpicked words, there is a 50-50 probability of pulling out either one of the two candidates. How does the first letter enter the picture?
The point is that it is not sticking your hand in a bag of unused words. ”Most probable” is a misnomer though, ”most likely to have been picked by the editor” would be more appropriate.

Going off the theme that lately the editor has picked words with less common letters, it was perhaps not a bad guess. It comes down to trying to read the editor’s mind.
 
Wordle 1,283 5/6*

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Screenshot from 2024-12-23 22-36-33.png
 
Orodruin said:
The point is that it is not sticking your hand in a bag of unused words. ”Most probable” is a misnomer though, ”most likely to have been picked by the editor” would be more appropriate.

Going off the theme that lately the editor has picked words with less common letters, it was perhaps not a bad guess. It comes down to trying to read the editor’s mind.
Thanks for the clarification. The role of the editor is described here. It seems that, after a candidate is randomly selected, the editor "curates" the selection to ensure that it is not offensive to any particular subgroup of people or highly degenerate such as _OUND that is eightfold degenerate and difficult in hard mode. Today's word was twofold degenerate with no obvious perturbation that might cause the editor to pick one over the other. In that regard, it is worth noting that both eigenwords have non-English origins.
 
kuruman said:
I do not understand how you define "most probable". You say in the spoiler that the first of the two words is most probable because of its first letter.

Here are the facts. The letters in positions 2-5 re the same. There are only two words in the entire list, picked or unpicked, that match these same letters in positions 2-5. Neither has been picked until now. It seems to me that if I stick my hand in the bag of all unpicked words, there is a 50-50 probability of pulling out either one of the two candidates. How does the first letter enter the picture?
Just to add to @Orodruin 's answer, even if I have a 50/50 probability, my brain needs a reason to pick a word. I could blindly choose to pick the first one but I'm trying something fun and measuring my success rate along the way. After 67 trials, I'm at a 62.7% success rate, which I still find better than 50/50. In the end, I might end up with a 50/50 success rate, just proving my mind-reading qualities are no better than pure randomness.
 
jack action said:
. . . my brain needs a reason to pick a word.
Sure, but you did not answer my question, by what reasoning did you brain decide that the first letter of the first word is more probable than the first letter of the second word?
Orodruin said:
”Most probable” is a misnomer though, ”most likely to have been picked by the editor” would be more appropriate.
It seems that "most likely to be picked if @jack action were the editor" is even more appropriate. Furthermore, no mind-reading abilities (other than one's own) are needed.
 
Wordle 1,284 4/6

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟨 [TRAIL] 32 left
⬛🟨⬛🟨⬛ [SEDGY] filter - 3 left: ALGAE ANGLE EAGLE
🟨🟨🟩⬛🟩 [ALGAE] most probable - 1 left
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 [EAGLE]

For my 2nd guess, I had a list of suggestions with the letters SEDY. I eliminated words finishing with ED and ES because these were less likely positions for these letters but I also like the G in SEDGY, which is a rare occurring letter. It did not disappoint.

But now, as my 3rd guess, I'm stuck with 3 choices with basically all the same letters and a guaranteed solution in 4 with any of them. ANGLE seemed a little technical and bland so I went for the more "challenging" word to find instead of the "cute" one.

I will define this one as a tie for the "most-probable" method as it was right for the SEDGY but not for ALGAE.

most-probable method count update (Success/Fail): 43/26 - 62.3%/37.7%

kuruman said:
Sure, but you did not answer my question, by what reasoning did you brain decide that the first letter of the first word is more probable than the first letter of the second word?
As I said earlier:
jack action said:
I noticed that lately, there have been many words with letters that rarely occur (like F and K). BUNNY was also a good candidate with the double Ns, but the word choice seems to have shifted from positive, cute words to more challenging ones.
But maybe I'm wrong with these theories, and this is all in my head and purely coincidental.
 
jack action said:
I will define this one as a tie for the "most-probable" method as it was right for the SEDGY but not for ALGAE.
You should not. This is a textbook example of a posteriori bias. The second guess also was not the answer so its result does not relate to the answer being ”more likely” or not.
 
Orodruin said:
You should not. This is a textbook example of a posteriori bias. The second guess also was not the answer so its result does not relate to the answer being ”more likely” or not.
I knew the second guess couldn't be the answer but I did choose it based on the presence of a certain letter that happened to be in the answer. Luck? Maybe. Probably.

But how could I ignore the data? When I make a decision based on some supposition, I have to note it as a success or a failure without analyzing why it worked or didn't. Otherwise, it would be a posteriori bias.

The following is probably the answer you were trying to get out of me earlier in this thread to the question "What are the chances that my method yields the same results as a perfect coin flip?"

Well, I found this website since then and, according to it (the math is presented there), if I flip a coin 69 times, the probability that it lends on head at least 43 times (i.e. my success rate) is only 2.66%. The closer it is to zero, the less likely it can be compared to pure randomness, which would get a 50% probability. It is thus encouraging to continue evaluating the data.