COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Baluncore]

“Anything that doesn’t feel like an overreaction now is probably an under reaction.”
I need to learn from my mistakes, things are happening in half the time I predict.

 

[bhobba]

Here is a rather detailed article on how COVID-19 reaches and progresses thru the body. Rather graphic writing, if you are easily upset you have been warned.

And students in Australia are not taking STEM subjects because they are too hard. At a minimum every student should read the above and have to write a report, even if it's just in English class.

And to top it off my sister just told me her daughters room-mate believes the cornavirus is a conspiracy - God help us.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

I'm not looking forward to NZ being under alert level four, to be effective 11.59pm Wednesday. Fun times ahead.

 

[mfb]

And to top it off my sister just told me her daughters room-mate believes the cornavirus is a conspiracy - God help us.

The whole existence? Like... there is no virus and everyone is making that up?

Border, by the way, without "a".

Italy's new cases per day, will be interesting to see how the next few days will look like:

 

[bhobba]

The whole existence? Like... there is no virus and everyone is making that up?

She didn't detail. She was more worried about how I was going to eat now all I can get is takeaway. There is a Takeaway up the road I will go to.

Border, by the way, without "a".

Will fix

And yes - fingers crossed on Italy's cases. They even got Chinese advisers into help.

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

USA numbers on the rise, fast. It overtook Spain, Germany, Iran, France and South Korea, trailing Italy.

 

[peanut]

Africa: Coronavirus epidemic is advancing in the Subsaharan Africa
More than 500 contaminations were reported on 20 March in the Subsaharan African according to authorities of many countries; 200 tested positive in South Africa, the biggest number in the continent.
.../...
Plus de 500 contaminations avaient été rapportées au 20 Mars en Afrique subsaharienne, selon les autorités des divers pays, don't 200 en Afrique du Sud, le plus grand nombre de cas sur le continent.

https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...iVRQzp_QnPn3mA62ymGlMAtsC_LJAeSzsTjh502IdKivU

 

[atyy]

WATCH: Police officers in Spain’s Mallorca go viral after entertaining residents in Coronavirus lockdown with street performance
Policia Local officers gave a surprising performance as residents in confinement clapped and sung along.
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...coronavirus-lockdown-with-street-performance/

Police hit the streets of Algaida
https://www.majorcadailybulletin.co...lice-algaida-during-coronavirus-lockdown.html

 

[bhobba]

For those interested here is the math of ro:
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

Now for some good news! We know older adults are at higher risk for severe Covid-19 but it is NOT a death sentence. A 93-year-old woman in South Korea and a 95-year-old woman in Italy have fully recovered becoming the oldest persons to overcome Covid-19 infection.

http://m.tbs.seoul.kr/efm/news/newsView.do?seq_800=10382358&typ_800=P&fbclid=IwAR29laHyGBgem5_RAUCKmFqPG2XtxrRtpGL9bvWE4eYQ9yVtdqpZ2rfQ11w

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11232069/italian-coronavirus-grandmother-oldest-recover/

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

If it hold up that people aren't contagious until they begin showing symptoms, then that is very good news for efforts to contain the virus.

I believe it has been confirmed that a person can be asymptomatic and contagious. The Science Mag article discusses "a paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus".

NEJM also has an article "First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries, including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020.

On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China.

On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)#January:_first_case
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)#February:_first_deaths

On February 24, a 54-year-old man was transferred from the Life Care Center of Kirkland to Harborview Medical Center and died there on February 26.

On February 28, a high school student in Everett was confirmed as having the virus. The following day, researchers confirmed the Coronavirus strain in the student's case may be related to the Coronavirus strain in the first confirmed U.S. case from January 19, suggesting that the virus may have been spreading in the area for up to six weeks.

This shows the importance of early detection, but also the responsibility of folks who are ill to take precautions so as not to infect others with who they have contact, and once the virus has started to spread, the importance of social distancing or stay-at-home. It is instructive to compare the dealyed NY state response to more proactive WA state response. US infection statistics are being driven by infections in NY and the NY City metropolitan area.

The first case was not the only traveler to enter the US with an infection, nor in Washington state. California reports 24 persons repatriated to the US. In the New York metropolitan area, several travelers had returned from Europe or the Middle East with infections.

The challenge facing national, state and local governments is how to control/mitigate a highly contagious disease (virus) when so many people are infected where some fraction of those infected to not know.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

 

[peanut]

I think a cure is just around the corner.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...g1x4V4fJLLoe8VVn7mAtlaNMMIFJACxvG5ekqy245YSpQ

 

[peanut]

I believe it has been confirmed that a person can be asymptomatic and contagious. The Science Mag article discusses "a paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus".

NEJM also has an article "First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)#January:_first_case
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state)#February:_first_deathsThis shows the importance of early detection, but also the responsibility of folks who are ill to take precautions so as not to infect others with who they have contact, and once the virus has started to spread, the importance of social distancing or stay-at-home. It is instructive to compare the dealyed NY state response to more proactive WA state response. US infection statistics are being driven by infections in NY and the NY City metropolitan area.

The first case was not the only traveler to enter the US with an infection, nor in Washington state. California reports 24 persons repatriated to the US. In the New York metropolitan area, several travelers had returned from Europe or the Middle East with infections.

The challenge facing national, state and local governments is how to control/mitigate a highly contagious disease (virus) when so many people are infected where some fraction of those infected to not know.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

I agree with everything you said. Just a quick comment on the highlighted bit. It's physical distancing, not social distancing. WHO corrected itself.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/corona...BLjIlcC8QTlbmErpftOvwvXFvBtlkrvEraOZAnK7SiI6Y

 

[atyy]

I believe it has been confirmed that a person can be asymptomatic and contagious. The Science Mag article discusses "a paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus".

The paper is flawed as the person was symptomatic. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

However it is likely that a person can be asymptomatic and contagious. Overall, however, it is likely that pre-symptomatic transmission is not a major driver of the pandemic. In other words, strictly self-isolating after onset of symptoms, even mild ones, would be a huge contribution to controlling the spread of the disease. See post #1329.

 

[BillTre]

By searching (in silico) for drugs that would interfere with corona virus-human protein interactions, researchers have developed a list of 69 drugs to test.
These are candidates for using to treat the corona virus.
NY Times article here.
BioRxiv here.
Some have been used on oher diseases, others not.

 

[Keith_McClary]

xkcd

Mouseover:

"So excited to see everyone after my luxury cruise home from the World Handshake Championships!"

 

[Astronuc]

The paper is flawed as the person was symptomatic. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

Yes, I am aware. I was linking back to Ygggdasil's post of Feb 3. It has subsequently (last week or two) been determined that perhaps 4 of 5 (80%) of those infected and who are contagious do not realize they are infected.

However it is likely that a person can be asymptomatic and contagious. Overall, however, it is likely that pre-symptomatic transmission is not a major driver of the pandemic. In other words, strictly self-isolating after onset of symptoms, even mild ones, would be a huge contribution to controlling the spread of the disease. See post #1329.

Anecdotally, in NY State, there are infections for which the original case cannot be linked to a symptomatic individual, e.g., the attorney who is related to at least 50 additional cases.

 

[PeterDonis]

It has subsequently (last week or two) been determined that perhaps 4 of 5 (80%) of those infected and who are contagious do not realize they are infected.

Do you have a reference for the "and who are contagious" part? AFAIK our best current understanding is that an asymptomatic person who is contagious will soon become symptomatic (within a day or so), so they will soon know they are infected. And as I understand it, that is only a fairly small fraction of asymptomatic people who are infected--most asymptomatic infected people will stay asymptomatic forever (and by inference would not be contagious).

 

[Astronuc]

Do you have a reference for the "and who are contagious" part? AFAIK our best current understanding is that an asymptomatic person who is contagious will soon become symptomatic (within a day or so), so they will soon know they are infected. And as I understand it, that is only a fairly small fraction of asymptomatic people who are infected--most asymptomatic infected people will stay asymptomatic forever (and by inference would not be contagious).

I'm looking for more information on that. Sanjay Gupta (CNN commentator) mentioned it last Thursday. I have yet to see a peer-reviewed report/article on the subject.

Yes, those who are infected will become symptomatic, but symptomatic can mean feeling like one has a mild cold to severe with diarrhea/vomiting and and in the extreme with pneumonia.

I don't know how the following relates to the 80% don't know they have it, but . . .

Thus, the key findings, that 86% of infections went undocumented and that, per person, these undocumented infections were 55% as contagious as documented infections, could shift in other countries with different control, surveillance and reporting practices.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

Using data from China -- where the COVID-19 outbreak originated -- epidemiologists developed a mathematical model of infectious disease spread. The model estimates nearly 80 percent of confirmed cases of the disease originated from so-called "undocumented" cases, or those who experienced mild, limited or no symptoms and went undiagnosed as a result.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/202...le-who-dont-know-they-are-sick/7771584372104/

One such potential case:

(CNN)Emma, a 12-year-old girl, is "fighting for her life" in an Atlanta hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus, according to her cousin.
Justin Anthony told CNN that Emma was diagnosed with pneumonia on March 15 and tested positive for Coronavirus on Friday night. As of Saturday, she was on a ventilator and is currently in stable condition, Anthony said.
Emma had no pre-existing conditions. She has not traveled recently and it's unknown how she contracted the virus, according to Anthony.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/us/georgia-coronavirus-girl-hospitalized/index.html This case demonstrates the severity of the illness in young folk.

In two communities where I live, there are cases for which the original contact is unknown, i.e., the victim cannot identify a contact is symptomatic, or it is not know if a symptomatic person was in contact with the victim (casual contact or passerby).Update/Edit: NY State just release today's statistics (March 23, 2020 | 3:03PM): NY City 12305 positive cases and the entire state (including NY City) 20,875 cases including 157 deaths.

Washington State (Updated on March 23, 2020 at 3:07 p.m) now up to 2221 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 110 deaths.

 

[PeterDonis]

those who are infected will become symptomatic, but symptomatic can mean feeling like one has a mild cold to severe with diarrhea/vomiting and and in the extreme with pneumonia

Yes, I understand that "symptomatic" can take a variety of forms, but all of them involve some kind of abnormality, so you know you have some kind of illness.

What I'm concerned about is not so much the present--I understand that right now things are changing rapidly and it's not always going to be possible to tell how a particular infected person got infected (as in the examples you give). What I'm concerned about is the future--at whatever point, say a few months from now, the rate of new cases has dropped to zero, or close enough to that, for a long enough time that anyone who has not yet developed symptoms could reasonably be assumed to either not have the virus or to have overcome it. At that point, would anyone (other than people who are symptomatic and are being treated, and presumably isolated to prevent them infecting others) still be contagious? Or could a significant number of people still become contagious at some point after that? And if so, when would they be contagious? Would a period of being contagious always be followed by them getting some kind of symptoms?

I realize we might not have good answers to all these questions right now. But a lot of people seem to be talking as though we do--for example, when people talk as though there will definitely be a second outbreak of COVID-19 if we let up on social distancing at some point in the future. So I'm wondering if anyone has actually seen hard evidence on these points.

 

[Astronuc]

What I'm concerned about is not so much the present--I understand that right now things are changing rapidly and it's not always going to be possible to tell how a particular infected person got infected (as in the examples you give). What I'm concerned about is the future--at whatever point, say a few months from now, the rate of new cases has dropped to zero, or close enough to that, for a long enough time that anyone who has not yet developed symptoms could reasonably be assumed to either not have the virus or to have overcome it. At that point, would anyone (other than people who are symptomatic and are being treated, and presumably isolated to prevent them infecting others) still be contagious? Or could a significant number of people still become contagious at some point after that? And if so, when would they be contagious? Would a period of being contagious always be followed by them getting some kind of symptoms?

All good questions and I have the same concerns. I think it is too early to tell, but I expect there are those who are trying to answer those questions. I'm looking for any peer-reviewed study.

My sister, a pediatrician, and a family friend, physician's assistant, are dealing with this first hand. I'm also looking at what state and local health departments are reporting in the two areas of concern for me.

if we let up on social distancing at some point in the future.

I imagine that will happen once there is a vaccine and enough people are vaccinated.

Prior to COVID-19, we were seeing a resurgence of measles around the US. There were clusters where folks were not having their children vaccinated. For example, Washington State had two outbreaks of measles in 2019.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily/IllnessandDisease/Measles/Measles2019

Some good news, Gilead's remdesivir seems to work as treatment. See the article on the first COVID-19 case in Wa state.
The bad news: Gilead is overwhelmed with requests for remdesivir and will have to ration it. It is still in trials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/health/coronavirus-drugs-remdesivir.html

 

[chemisttree]

Prediction: For the near future, the term, “COVID-19 Recovered” will appear on resumes along with “previous experience” and “references available upon request.”

 

[chemisttree]

As far as rationing Remdesivir, I’m not surprised they are running low. Making this stuff is a bit complex.

Chloroquine and its analog hydroxychloroquine, however, is brutally easy! Chloroquine is much easier. Just mix the diamine ( 4-diethylamino-1-methylbutylamine) with the 4,7-dichloroquinoline.

 

[Astronuc]

From World Health Organization (WHO): DO THE FIVE
Help stop coronavirus
1 HANDS - Wash them often
2 ELBOW - Cough into it - I would add, wear a facemask
3 FACE - Don't touch it
4 SPACE - Keep safe distance
5 HOME - Stay if you can

6 If one is ill, stay away from others, do not go out in public and do not take public transportation, which is how some of the virus has spread.

 

[anorlunda]

Florida has declared child-care-facilities as a critical infrastructure that must be allowed to stay open, because people with essential jobs need child care.

But in the past 48 hours more than 100 child care centers in central Florida closed because they have no customers. Parents don't want their children to go there.

I worry about employees of critical infrastructure staying away from work because they don't want to put their families at risk.

 

[atyy]

What I'm concerned about is not so much the present--I understand that right now things are changing rapidly and it's not always going to be possible to tell how a particular infected person got infected (as in the examples you give). What I'm concerned about is the future--at whatever point, say a few months from now, the rate of new cases has dropped to zero, or close enough to that, for a long enough time that anyone who has not yet developed symptoms could reasonably be assumed to either not have the virus or to have overcome it. At that point, would anyone (other than people who are symptomatic and are being treated, and presumably isolated to prevent them infecting others) still be contagious? Or could a significant number of people still become contagious at some point after that? And if so, when would they be contagious? Would a period of being contagious always be followed by them getting some kind of symptoms?

I realize we might not have good answers to all these questions right now. But a lot of people seem to be talking as though we do--for example, when people talk as though there will definitely be a second outbreak of COVID-19 if we let up on social distancing at some point in the future. So I'm wondering if anyone has actually seen hard evidence on these points.

Here is an example where it seemed like there were no new cases for a month (partly due to narrow definition of a suspected case and lack of testing), then cases were uncovered. The details of the tree have changed a bit with more data, but the overall picture suggested remains the same.
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

In this transmission cluster, evidence suggests that symptomatic people (who probably thought they had a cold or flu) helped to transmit Covid-19.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-18/coronavirus-spread-nursing-homes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

However, it is worth noting that many have suggested that if surveillance and quarantine are in place to suppress the new outbreaks, then perhaps the "second" peak need not require measures as severe (near lockdown, massive closing of businesses) to control. In Trevor Bedford's words, "However, I'm not quite that pessimistic. Although I agree that basic mitigation efforts won't stop the epidemic, I have hope that we can solve this thing by doing traditional shoe leather epidemiology of case finding and isolation, but at scale, using modern technology." Tomas Pueyo has written similar thoughts that he calls the hammer and the dance.

 

[Evo]

So my doctor is sick and canceled her appointment with me tomorrow, I am going to meet with a nurse physician in the morning, well I vomit in the mornings, they said if I am sick, I won't be allowed in. So I told them to schedule me in the afternoon, I feel better in the afternoons, They don't have doctors in the afternoons. So I'll pretend to be ok and then vomit on them. I've been this way all of my life. I had trouble attending school because I couldn't make it in most mornings. I had to get jobs where I came in late, then finally was able to work at home.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

The article starts: "The man who would become Patient Zero for the new Coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. appeared to do everything right." He was sick when he returned to the US. He arrived Jan 15, and on Jan 19, after 4 days of being ill (cough and fever), he was tested and confirmed on Jan 20. He did alert the authorities that he had returned from Wuhan. He'd already exposed others, since he had to travel from Seattle-Tacoma airport (SEA) to Snohomish County, where he lived.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

From the bloomberg article

On Jan. 15, when the traveler to Wuhan who became the first known U.S. case returned to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, he took group transportation from the airport with other passengers, county officials have said.

On Jan. 17, the U.S. began checks of passengers from Wuhan at airports in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Two days too late for the 35 year old traveler who arrived Jan. 15, and there were probably infected travelers arriving at LAX and SFO, and possibly EWR (NJ) and JFK (NY), and protocols were not in place at the airports.

More U.S. cases were reported in places including Illinois, California and Massachusetts, suggesting other travelers may have brought it home with them. For every dozen cases the U.S. caught, it probably missed 20 or 25, estimated Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The 35 year old man is one of many 'patient zeros', and each should be traced, but as time goes on, that becomes less likely. Cases in NY were from started with people returning from Europe and Middle East. California has cases independent of those in Washington, and at least 24 patient-zeroes.

I looked up roundtrip flights between LAX, SFO and SEA to Wuhan (WUH), and there are many combinations, all connecting in intermediate city, e.g., Beijing, Tokyo, Taipei, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and others. Similarly, one could many options for flights to WUH from ORD, EWR and JFK. Passengers could be immigrants visiting family, students, or business people.

The highest concentration of SARS-CoV2 (2019-nCoV) infections in the US have one thing in common - international airports and infected/ill folks returning from overseas without any precautions.

 

[russ_watters]

Why do you doubt China's statistics? The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

That paper is syrupy-sweet, and does not read like a 3rd-party assessment (and includes Chinese writers).

What I find incredible is the idea that China, the source of the outbreak, which punished people responding to the outbreak with prison, could export the outbreak worldwide and then be pretty much the only country on Earth to successfully contain the outbreak to one geographic region. It doesn't seem like it should be possible, especially since:

China Will Rack Up Three Billion Trips During World’s Biggest Human Migration
Bloomberg News
19 January 2020
Gung hay fat choy!
View attachment 259021

I stand corrected! The Chinese are more mobile than I thought. So how is it possible they successfully contained the virus?

I just don't believe it is possible that they did.

 

[PeterDonis]

The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.

Does the term "Potemkin village" ring a bell? I'm sure the Russians are not the only ones to have come up with the idea.

 

[wukunlin]

That paper is syrupy-sweet, and does not read like a 3rd-party assessment (and includes Chinese writers).

What I find incredible is the idea that China, the source of the outbreak, which punished people responding to the outbreak with prison, could export the outbreak worldwide and then be pretty much the only country on Earth to successfully contain the outbreak to one geographic region. It doesn't seem like it should be possible, especially since:

I stand corrected! The Chinese are more mobile than I thought. So how is it possible they successfully contained the virus?

I just don't believe it is possible that they did.

Somethings really have to be seen to be believed. Media all over the world talked about the initial censoring like that's everything China did. When they did decide to recognize the outbreak, some local governments took extreme measures. Villages had trenches and roadblocks stopping people going in and out. Those images were shown as role models all over China. That's probably the difference between China and the rest of the world.

Where I live, there is a loud speaker on the main road basically saying "call the cops if you know anyone who just returned from Hubei and have not reported to the local station, as well as anyone with symptoms who has refused to go to hospital."
And if you don't have a face mask, you will not be allowed to go on any public transport or supermarkets.

 

[atyy]

He is one of several 'patient zeros', and each should be traced, but as time goes on, that becomes less likely. Cases in NY were from started with people returning from Europe and Middle East. California has cases independent of those in Washington, and at least 24 patient-zeroes.

Yeah, that's the problem. China having exported cases, is now worried about importing them and causing new outbreaks there, after seeming to bring their own original outbreaks under control.

Same here in Singapore, about 80% of new cases are Singapore citizens and long-term residents returning from places like the UK and the USA. Here it still seems within the capability of contact tracing, and we are still isolating every case in a hospital (ie. mild cases do not self-isolate at home). However, the government has had to partner with private hospitals to isolate the mild cases there.

 

[atyy]

What I find incredible is the idea that China, the source of the outbreak, which punished people responding to the outbreak with prison, could export the outbreak worldwide and then be pretty much the only country on Earth to successfully contain the outbreak to one geographic region. It doesn't seem like it should be possible, especially since:

Well, hopefully that will not be true. I think the Coronavirus is still largely in the north in Italy, and there is still hope that overall Italy will be able to bring things under control. Also, China is a big country. Hubei, where Wuhan is, has a population of 59 million, Italy has a population of 60 million. So an analogy is that China is like Europe, with each province of China being a European country.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099375/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-italy/
https://observablehq.com/@jashkenas/italy-coronavirus-daily-cases-map-covid-19

Although there is lots of travel in China at Chinese New Year (Jan 25 + 15 days), some measures were taken before Chinese New Year, including the lockdown of many parts of Hubei (Jan 23). Measures continued to increase after the start of Chinese New Year. Also, delays for returning to work and school after Chinese New Year were implemented.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c947a8-3d45-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...s-far-from-virus-epicentre-implement-12388714

 

[mfb]

I just don't believe it is possible that they did.

We would know if China wouldn't have contained it. It's easy to "forget" half of the cases, maybe even a larger fraction, but not even China can hide a country-wide collapse of the healthcare system, something that would have occurred a over month ago if China wouldn't have contained the spread (at least limited it to a manageable number of cases). They took measures no one else did to limit the spread.

Florida has declared child-care-facilities as a critical infrastructure that must be allowed to stay open, because people with essential jobs need child care.

But in the past 48 hours more than 100 child care centers in central Florida closed because they have no customers. Parents don't want their children to go there.

I worry about employees of critical infrastructure staying away from work because they don't want to put their families at risk.

Child care centers only for children of critical employees? That way they can keep working and the infection risk for the children is reduced, too.Italy:

 

[peanut]

Another good news. Still a long way but it seems like Italy's actions are finally showing some effect. For the 2nd consecutive day, new Covid-19 Italia cases are decreasing. Today's death toll (601), yesterday (651), day before (793). Physical distancing is working.

 

[anorlunda]

Department of good intentions gone wrong.

We just went out to try to buy food at the 7AM seniors-only-hour at the local supermarket. The parking lot was more full than during the Christmas rush. A mob of seniors at the door were packed so close, they nearly touched. We aborted.

Clearly the intention of a seniors-only hour backfired.

If the local population has N% seniors, then seniors-only hours less than N% of total hours accomplishes social concentration rather than social distancing. In this area, about 40% of the people are seniors. Nearby, in The Villages it is 75% seniors. But the supermarket devoted only 2.5% of the food shopping hours for seniors-only.

Rules need to allow local adjustments.

 

[Borg]

Looks like the stores and the seniors both need to get some brain cells.

There is a Trader Joe's near our house that my wife and I plan to go to early tomorrow. We've both agreed that if there is a line of more than a few people, we will also abort.

 

[Borg]

My offices finally locked down and went to bare-bones essential personnel only. I don't think my boss will be telling me that I need to come in anymore like she tried (and failed) 3 times this month already.

 

[peanut]

What does it mean when a report said Covid-19 viral RNA was identified or detectable for at least 17 days?

What's the difference between detectable and survival?

 

[atyy]

What does it mean when a report said Covid-19 viral RNA was identified or detectable for at least 17 days?

What's the difference between detectable and survival?

View attachment 259242

RNA is only part of the virus. If the RNA is present without the other parts of the virus, no infection is possible.

 

[peanut]

RNA is only part of the virus. If the RNA is present without the other parts of the virus, no infection is possible.

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

 

[jbriggs444]

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

Yes, it would be wrong. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. The disease is COVID-19.

 

[anorlunda]

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

Not the right way to say it. The passage you quoted in #1689 does not prove or disprove that transmission could occur.

 

[peanut]

Not the right way to say it. The passage you quoted in #1689 does not prove or disprove that transmission could occur.

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

 

[atyy]

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

RNA not DNA. But yes, detecting RNA is not the same as detecting viable virus. If you don't detect RNA (assuming the test is properly done), then you know it is not infectious. But you could detect RNA without infectious virus being present.

To confirm infectiousness (not sure what the right word is), you would attempt to use the sample to infect cells (eg. cell culture). I'm not sure off the top of my head whether protocol for infectiousness have been developed yet for SARS-CoV-2.

Edit: In the very old days, you would do things which I think cannot be done any longer (someone please correct me on this), eg. I believe in the 1970s they tested the effectiveness of sterilization procedures by seeing if the sample after the attempted sterilization could infect people (!) https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2020.00032/full

 

[peanut]

The virus is SARS-CoV-2. The disease is COVID-19.

I thought they were the same. Thanks, jbriggs. I am learning.

 

[anorlunda]

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

Yes, but it does not disprove that a viable virus may exist.

If the result had been negative rather than positive, then that would prove that no virus existed. (At least to the extent that we trust the test.)

 

[atyy]

But I have to say, I always thought RNA is quite fragile. DNA is robust, which is why we can still analyze DNA from long long ago (like Jurassic Park - kidding, of course). @chemisttree @Ygggdrasil ?

 

[peanut]

Yes, but it does not disprove that a viable virus may exist.

Okay.

If the result had been negative rather than positive, then that would prove that no virus existed. (At least to the extent that we trust the test.)

Interesting. Sounds like they are never alive because they’re sort of in the middle of being alive (positive) and being dead (negative).

 

[atyy]