News Is Donald Trump Really Considering a Presidential Run in 2012?

[drankin]

He's seriously thinking about running. I dare say that he would take it if he ran.

 

[humanino]

You provided neither much reference nor even an intelligent opinion for the beginning of a discussion. Can you elaborate ?

 

[drankin]

As for a reference: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/us-politics/8044423/Donald-Trump-to-run-for-US-president.html

No opinion will be offered in response to your condescention.

 

[humanino]

No opinion will be offered in response to your condescention.

It is spelled "condescension". I am sorry you feel that way. I guess it only means you admit this kind of people news is not the most interesting distraction.

 

[mheslep]

I predict the President will lose reelection if events continue on the current trend, given any half decent opposition candidate. I don't make that prediction lightly against an incumbent President who I grant is formidable as a politician, and given the reluctance of the electorate to put a Republican president in place along side the pending Republican House.

But given his campaign tax pledge:

"I can make a firm pledge. Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes."

is going out the window as of Jan 1 without even a vote for a great many Americans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...ciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison" 2.0 with a similar result.

2001: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001#Income_tax
2003: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...nciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison

 

[drankin]

It is spelled "condescension". I am sorry you feel that way. I guess it only means you admit this kind of people news is not the most interesting distraction.

Are you going to discuss the OP or simply parse my weaknesses in grammar?

 

[G037H3]

Too corporatist.

The US corporatist overlords rule from the executive rooms of the banks.

 

[mugaliens]

No. Absolutely not. The financial sector already has it's fingers in our government up to its armpits, at taxpayer expense for their mistakes. I fail to see how electing a "business magnate" is going to improve that conundrum.

 

[Gokul43201]

I predict the President will lose reelection if events continue on the current trend, given any half decent opposition candidate. I don't make that prediction lightly against an incumbent President who I grant is formidable as a politician, and given the reluctance of the electorate to put a Republican president in place along side the pending Republican House.

But given his campaign tax pledge:

"I can make a firm pledge. Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes."

is going out the window as of Jan 1 without even a vote for a great many Americans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...ciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison" 2.0 with a similar result.

2001: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001#Income_tax
2003: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...nciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison

You're missing one citation - to the Obama plan that calls for the tax raise on lower income groups.

 

[humanino]

Are you going to discuss the OP or simply parse my weaknesses in grammar?

I most probably have a worse grammar and orthography than yours. I would appreciate if you corrected mine. I was not worried about your grammar. I just wanted you to spell out

the President will lose reelection

even against Trump. I would rather not display my own opinion on such possibilities.

 

[Ken Natton]

With all due acknowledgment of the fact that, as a Brit, this is really not my business, in response to the thread title, I would like to quote an American that has a great deal of kudos here in the UK these days:

You cannot be serious.

 

[mheslep]

I most probably have a worse grammar and orthography than you. I would appreciate if you corrected me. I was not worried about your grammar. I just wanted you to spell out

even against Trump. I would rather not display my own opinion on such possibilities.

It's unspeakable? How about the http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" Can they be spoken about? Any chance Trump can do better at getting them jobs?

Trump's never been elected to anything, not even a neighborhood association, so this is not a practical proposal. The talk about it does signal the President's vulnerability though.

 

[Gokul43201]

If there's one thing I'm fairly sure about, it is that if Trump runs, he will not be a Fred Thompson.

 

[drankin]

No. Absolutely not. The financial sector already has it's fingers in our government up to its armpits, at taxpayer expense for their mistakes. I fail to see how electing a "business magnate" is going to improve that conundrum.

He has a successful resume. He is intelligent. He has never been a typical "politician" that I'm aware of which would be to his advantage given the current sentiment towards the Republican party by Republican voters. He has the no-nonsense character we haven't seen for some time.

I lieu of any other worthy Republican candidates, I think he has a chance if he throws in the hat. We did elect a B rated actor for two terms. The idea of a successful business person as our prez while were in a recession has a ring of optimism to it.

 

[humanino]

I predict the President will lose reelection

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/100110_fox_news_poll.pdf
I recently read in "Le Monde" how everybody complains about their president in the US. Rich people calling him a socialist, poor people claiming he does not help enough. I find it funny how it reflects in the poll : people do not want to vote for him, but when asked, they pretty much prefer him over anybody else.

So just as some would find anything they can to complain about, now some will find any potential candidate to probe opinions.

Trump, seriously ? You have nothing better ?

 

[CRGreathouse]

You're missing one citation - to the Obama plan that calls for the tax raise on lower income groups.

I think the link to the JGTRRA was for that purpose...?

 

[Gokul43201]

I think the link to the JGTRRA was for that purpose...?

The only mention of Obama on that page is the following sentence:

"The Obama administration proposed keeping tax cuts for people making less than $250,000 per year."​

I don't think that helps the case that mheslep was trying to make.

 

[mheslep]

We did elect a B rated actor for two terms.

Yes, and who had decades of professional executive political office experience and a previous attempt at the Presidency behind him ('76 against Ford).

 

[drankin]

Yes, and who had decades of professional executive political office experience and a previous attempt at the Presidency behind him ('76 against Ford).

My point is that we have a precedent for voting in celebrities.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, Trump could help Uncle Sam through bankruptcy.

Ref: http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html

For legendary tycoons, Donald Trump tops the list, but how many times has Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy? The 90’s recession wasn’t picky about who it affected. Donald Trump felt the pinch as well. His decision to use high interest bonds to finance the assembly of the Taj Mahal casino caused life to get very stressful for the tycoon.

In 1991, unable to pay a $3.5 billion loan, he declared business bankruptcy. He also came close to filing personal ruin. At the time, his personal debt was estimated to be around $900 million. Due to the bankruptcy, banks and bondholders lost millions. They came to a compromise with Donald Trump. The banks gave him lower interest rates and a longer time frame to repay the debt and Donald Trump gave the investors half the ownership of the Taj Mahal. In mere months the casino was back in business.

Not even a year later, Trump Plaza Hotel folded and Donald had to declare bankruptcy. . . . .

The bankruptcy saga didn’t stop there. In 2004, Donald filed for bankruptcy protection and restructured his debt. . . . .

Oh, yeah - he's a great businessman - just what the country needs.

 

[mheslep]

My point is that we have a precedent for voting in celebrities.

I know, I got that part, but I wanted point out that the US does not have much of a history of voting for Presidents with absolutely zero electoral experience. Only Eisenhower comes to mind.

 

[mheslep]

. I find it funny how it reflects in the poll : people do not want to vote for him, but when asked, they pretty much prefer him over anybody else.

? From the poll
If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama: Vote for someone else: 54% (total)

 

[drankin]

Well, Trump could help Uncle Sam through bankruptcy.

Ref: http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html
Oh, yeah - he's a great businessman - just what the country needs.

Doh! Now this I didn't know. That won't work at all.

 

[mheslep]

Well, Trump could help Uncle Sam through bankruptcy.

Ref: http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html
Oh, yeah - he's a great businessman - just what the country needs.

rofl? That's a disappointing post. It's one thing to point out his lack of political office experience, but mocking his business acumen? Trump doesn't run lemonade stands. Exactly what do you believe is involved in starting high risk real estate businesses in NYC, or starting businesses in the US in general for that matter? How many jobs do you imagine Trump has created along the way as opposed to, say, some community coordinator?

 

[mheslep]

Doh! Now this I didn't know. That won't work at all.

You didn't know that many entrepreneurs fail, often repeatedly, in route to success?

 

[mheslep]

You're missing one citation - to the Obama plan that calls for the tax raise on lower income groups.

Quote was from Sept. 12, 2008 in New Hampshire.
http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter...ily-making-less-250000-will-see-any-form-tax/
As of Jan 1, all of the Bush tax cuts will expire and taxes will increase on all income brackets that enjoyed cuts from '01 and '03.

So I don't follow, what do you mean by way of a citation for the O plan that calls for a raise on lower income groups?

 

[CRGreathouse]

The only mention of Obama on that page is the following sentence:

"The Obama administration proposed keeping tax cuts for people making less than $250,000 per year."​

I don't think that helps the case that mheslep was trying to make.

I can speak for neither mheslep nor Gokul43201, but I think the point the latter was trying to make was that income tax will increase Jan 1 2011 for those making at least ~$34,000, depending on the exact cutoff for the tax brackets and filing status.

Of course, strictly speaking, this is not Obama but the current Congress.

Edit: mheslep beat me to it.

 

[drankin]

You didn't know that many entrepreneurs fail, often repeatedly, in route to success?

No, I agree with that but this is political ammunition that would be exploited by his opposition. And the general voter will buy into it, IMO.

 

[mheslep]

No, I agree with that but this is political ammunition that would be exploited by his opposition. And the general voter will buy into it, IMO.

Oh agreed, but I think Trump's bombastic personality, at least the public showman version, would do him well before recourse to his business record.

 

[humanino]

? From the poll
If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama: Vote for someone else: 54% (total)

That is part of what I am saying : the majority wants to vote for somebody else. But then please go to the next page : every single specific opponent looses against him.

My interpretation is that people are dis-satisfied, yet it is not clear what alternative they have anyway.

 

[mheslep]

I can speak for neither mheslep nor Gokul43201, but I think the point the latter was trying to make was that income tax will increase Jan 1 2011 for those making at least ~$34,000, depending on the exact cutoff for the tax brackets and filing status.

Exactly.

Of course, strictly speaking, this is not Obama but the current Congress.

Well that was also known when Obama made the 'pledge' - Congressional action required to extend postpone tax increases. To fulfill the pledge, seems to me he would have had to at least proposed forcefully that Congress eliminate increases for the under $250k brackets.

 

[russ_watters]

He has a successful resume.

I'm not sure I agree. He or his companies have been bankrupt many times. And he has a reputation in the construction industry for making projects work financially by not paying his bills.

rofl? That's a disappointing post. It's one thing to point out his lack of political office experience, but mocking his business acumen? Trump doesn't run lemonade stands. Exactly what do you believe is involved in starting high risk real estate businesses in NYC, or starting businesses in the US in general for that matter?

Yes, the real-estate business is high risk. But I'd consider a bankrupcy to be a failure, not a win, wouldn't you?

How many jobs do you imagine Trump has created along the way as opposed to, say, some community coordinator?

I'm sure he's created a ton of jobs, but the bankrupcies would also tend to destroy a ton of jobs, so I'm not sure if the net would be all that positive.

 

[mheslep]

That is part of what I am saying : the majority wants to vote for somebody else. But then please go to the next page : every single specific opponent looses against him.

I've seen the rest, but of course we don't know who the opponent is going to be yet. I like Mitch Daniels (In), Pawlenty(Mn) for instance.

 

[mheslep]

Re Trumps failures, let's have some context please. Henry Ford' first two auto companies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Automobile_Company" and he went bankrupt.

 

[CAC1001]

Well, Trump could help Uncle Sam through bankruptcy.

Ref: http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html
Oh, yeah - he's a great businessman - just what the country needs.

I don't think Donald Trump never has filed for bankruptcy. Certain companies of his have, but not he himself.

Also remember, there's two sides to his company almost failing: one the one hand, yes it looks bad that he almost crashed, however, that real-estate crash of the 1990s wiped out a lot of real-estate guys for good. Trump found himself deeply in debt, but recovered, and is a success again. That takes a lot of guts and tenacity to pull oneself through such a crappy situation. Most people get depressed over debt, Trump had hundreds of millions of dollars of it to deal with.

That said, I don't know if I'd want Trump as President.

Another thing that political opponents could use against him is his living quarters; seriously, anyone seen the interior of his apartment at the top of Trump Tower? Gold, marble, gold, marble, gold, marble, I mean it almost makes Versailles look cheap!

 

[russ_watters]

I predict the President will lose reelection if events continue on the current trend, given any half decent opposition candidate. I don't make that prediction lightly against an incumbent President who I grant is formidable as a politician, and given the reluctance of the electorate to put a Republican president in place along side the pending Republican House.

But given his campaign tax pledge:

is going out the window as of Jan 1 without even a vote for a great many Americans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...ciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison" 2.0 with a similar result.

2001: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001#Income_tax
2003: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...nciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison

I stated soon after he was elected that given the timing of the recession it would be a near foregone conclusion that he'd get re-elected in four years. But if the economy is all that matters and he allows the tax cuts to expire without a fight and if economic growth is still low and unemployment still high, he may not be able to get much traction out of the typical campaign rhetorical question incumbents ask: "are you better off than you were 4 years ago".

At this point, there is a pretty substantial possibility of him being a one-termer, but the Republicans will need to field a quality, moderate opponent.

 

[russ_watters]

Re Trumps failures, let's have some context please. Henry Ford' first two auto companies failed. Walt Disney's first attempt failed and he went bankrupt.

Somehow their failures have not followed them around and created a reputation for failure like his have. Maybe that's just perception, but it is an extremely prevalent perception.

 

[CAC1001]

I'm sure he's created a ton of jobs, but the bankrupcies would also tend to destroy a ton of jobs, so I'm not sure if the net would be all that positive.

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

 

[russ_watters]

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

I'm not talking about the enterprise itself, I'm talking about all the businesses that lose money due to the vacating of the debt. AFAIK, none of his companies themselves were liquidated.

 

[Proton Soup]

Trump is a buffoon. all he does is talk about class and fires any of his beauty contest winners that slip up. but then he'll go on to talk about how classy Paris Hilton is, despite her producing amateur porn tapes and (just recently) arrested for cocaine possession. no judgment or values, just a keen sense of wanting acceptance from the wealthy.

i shudder to think how the man would redecorate the white house. Kasino Kitsch, anyone?

 

[CAC1001]

At this point, there is a pretty substantial possibility of him being a one-termer, but the Republicans will need to field a quality, moderate opponent.

I think the Republicans could field a conservative, they just need to make sure its not a Ron Paul type.

Somehow their failures have not followed them around and created a reputation for failure like his have. Maybe that's just perception, but it is an extremely prevalent perception.

Wasn't aware he has a reputation for failure.

 

[russ_watters]

Wasn't aware he has a reputation for failure.

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine and a buffoon. Neither are good for an upstart politician.

If you weren't aware of the first, a google for "donald trump bankrupcy" yields plenty. Here's the first hit:

How Does Trump repeatedly file for Bankruptcy and still stay on top?
Monica Sanders - Oct 2005
Donald Trump has become infamous for telling business mogul wannabes "You're fired!" every week on primetime television. Yet, after Trump's casino operations filed bankruptcy for the second time this past November, many have wondered if it isn't time for board members to give Trump a pink slip. Despite the company failings, Trump will remain as chairman and CEO and continue to collect a $2 million dollar paycheck. So...how does a CEO decide to file for bankruptcy twice and still come out at the top of the heap?

http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-headlines/celebrity-lawsuits/how-does-trump-repeatedly-file

 

[mheslep]

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

I'm not talking about the enterprise itself, I'm talking about all the businesses that lose money due to the vacating of the debt. AFAIK, none of his companies themselves were liquidated.

I agree with CAC1001. Usually capital investments are lost not jobs, especially in the real estate business where the problem is nearly always either the debt load or property taxes. These days under Chap 11 people actually working at or for the properties, doing cash flow making activities often keep their jobs, though maybe under a different owner or name, and the lenders or investors get wiped out.

 

[mheslep]

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine

That's a machine that made just two bankruptcies, just like Ford.

 

[mheslep]

I think the Republicans could field a conservative, they just need to make sure its not a Ron Paul type.

How about a Rand Paul type instead?

 

[russ_watters]

That's a machine that made just two bankruptcies, just like Ford.

I count four*. But in any case, it isn't the number but the ratio of failure and success or the time since he's put the failure behind him. Disney and Ford have operated for decades without a bankrupcy. Trump's clock has been reset and now reads 1 year: If the bankrupcies of Ford and Disney are early failures that didn't prevent later success, we are left to ask with Trump: when does that "later success" happen?

*1991, 1992, 2005 & 2009. Also, somehow despite $900 million in personal debt he was able to avoid personal bankrupcy in the early '90s.

 

[CAC1001]

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine and a buffoon. Neither are good for an upstart politician.

If you weren't aware of the first, a google for "donald trump bankrupcy" yields plenty. Here's the first hit:
http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-headlines/celebrity-lawsuits/how-does-trump-repeatedly-file

Don't know about being a buffoon, however his casino properties is not his entire company. Trump's Casinos are a publicly-owned company separate from his privately-owned company.

 

[CAC1001]

How about a Rand Paul type instead?

Don't know enough about him yet.

 

[russ_watters]

Don't know about being a buffoon, however his casino properties is not his entire company. Trump's Casinos are a publicly-owned company separate from his privately-owned company.

I don't see your point. It kinda sounds like you are trying to make excuses for his repeated failures.

 

[mheslep]

I count four*.

*1991, 1992, 2005 & 2009.

Hmm, I missed that?

Also, somehow despite $900 million in personal debt he was able to avoid personal bankrupcy in the early '90s.

Well its the net balance sheet over a few years that counts. The debt on your house and mine likely far exceeds our annual incomes and yet we avoid bankruptcy as well, even if the home values are underwater.