Hi all,
i think that the news at not very good this morning from this damned plant.
Here in France some big newspaper like Le Monde (one of the main newspaper) are finally now step by step going towards the idea that the reactor (REACTOR) vessel of N°3 "could be damaged"...
http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifiqu...-radioactifs_1498180_3216.html#ens_id=1493258
For me, with the last elements compiled here (especially the water on the basement 10 000 times more contaminated than in a normal functionning, but also the presence of strange elements that shoudn't be outside but ARE outside, ...) i have no more doubts about this fact: the reactor core has exploded the 14th of March, period.
And i think a lot of things that have been told (the controlled releases, the containment intact, the fact that it's no way like Tchernobyl, ...) has been a kind of cover up of the real situation, and this is really a problem when you think that offcially, people between 20 and 30 kms are still adviced to stay confined in their homes as i didn't see new info on that. I sincerely consider that it has everything to become worse than Tchernobyl :
-because the potential source is much bigger -we're talking about a complete plant with multi reactors and pools and not a single reactor, with all the domino effects we can anticipate - the number of dominos involved can be adjusted to your mood, more or less optimistic.
-because the density of population is terribly high in Japan
-because of the presence of the ocean which is already contaminated by the rejects of the cooling, and very quicky of all the **** which will be drained from the plant
In the article of Le Monde, it is reported that TEPCO is saying that bringing back the "normal" (what does it mean really as the situation is clearly more and more abnormal) cooling system "will last maybe more than one month, who knows?" ("Cela pourrait prendre encore plus d'un mois, qui sait"). If this sentence has been correctly reported, it shows that they are submerged by much more than a tsunami i think.
Bodge, i didn't react but the measurements you indicated are really bad of course and confirm that the contamination is not just from "controled releases" (which i doubted of very few days after the the start of the accident, the explosion of n°3 was the key moment for me). I personnaly suspect that a big part of the explosion could be from the suppression chamber based on the images i analysed, but we'll see.Now, we now that there is a fair amount of water at the basement and we will fairly quick hear about the word Corium to my opinion. The engineer from the CNIC conference (on USTREAM) in the video i posted and that has been reposted here a few hours ago (he has worked on the design of reactor N°4, his name is TANAKA) was saying in this video that one of the big problems with this design (relatively small containment chamber with the use of suppression chamber which is essentielly a big pool) implies a very high quantity of water below or near the core... which is not the safest idea in case of a fusion of the core. That's the next big question in the domino game: will corium meet water and have a big and violent love affair?
Before the TMI accident, almost nobody in the nuclear industry was seriously considering the practical possibility of a complete meltdown of the core. That's also why the TMI has been a so big surprise historically for the nuclear industry (50% of the core discovered melted when opened 5 years later). This design of BWR Mark I is from the mid sixties, so nothing has been anticipated for this scenario of core meltdown. This is no good news.
To the student in Japan who posted on this thread, i would just say that i don't know (personally) of any career more important than health and life for you and your family and friends. That's easier to say that from a place 17 000 kms away from Japan (less on the other side but I'm counting distances related to atmospheric movements in the last days) , for sure. But it is still true. Then, you have to make your own assesment of the situation there, and of the way it develops in the next days/weeks/months. But clearly, the situation at the plant is not good. Really not good. A few days after the start of the crisis, i adviced a friend (french) who was working in Tokyo to leave as quickly as possible when it was possible. But maybe I was too pessimistic of course (i would prefer to be pessimistic in fact, instead of realistic sometimes)...