Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

In the P.S. of the previous post the data was (local min for speed):
"speed: 424.2 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0200 UT "

Further ahead on July 22, speed overall relatively dropped (and some average density increase), however speed remains significantly relatively eleveted and density on the low side ...

Communications (on AM bands [MW, SW, LW] etc.) relatively cleared up today (for some reason this solar wind is not so magnetized ...). Just minor interference locally (spatio-temporarly) and at times, per band(s) ... (etc.). Overall it's a quiet day (seems, in those respects), so far ... ...

Six numbered spot groups now today visible (& 5 [since] yesterday), for the first time in this cycle ...

" Solar wind
speed: 420.7 km/sec
density: 4.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0945 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0515 UT Jul22
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0950 UT

Daily Sun: 22 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

For the first time in many years, there are 6 numbered sunspot groups on the face of the sun. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And minutes ago (local max for density ...) ... :
"Solar wind
speed: 425.9 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1050 UT "

And 6min later:
"Solar wind
speed: 427.3 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1056 UT "

Before rocketting higher, showing now clearly a RISING TENDENCY AGAIN (& decreasing [overall] density):
"Solar wind
speed: 443.1 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1100 UT "

And local max:
" Solar wind
speed: 451.1 km/sec
density: 3.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1105 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0515 UT Jul22
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1110 UT "

(Then following dropped again lower, oscillating ... ... [with local min reached ~ 422.3 ..., and another rising wave of values after that ...])

Problems again with communications ... (and expected more)
[MW band relatively ok for now, but SW bands already under strong interference ... etc. ...] [Minutes later, MW band is totally hit too ... (~ In the lapse of the max of speed above ... ...)]

Further news (cf. earlier posts, i.e. yesterday ...):
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A filament of magnetism near sunspot AR2846 erupted on July 20th, sparking a B-class solar flare and hurling https://spaceweather.com/images2021/20jul21/sideways_cme_anim.gif into space. Normally, the location of the blast site would rule out an impact on Earth. However, the explosion's debris squirted out sideways. New modeling by NOAA suggests that the edge of the cloud will strike Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd or 24th, sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Extra News from spaceweather.com (still July 22):
"A CRACK IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: During the early hours of July 22nd (0330 - 1000 UT) a crackopened in Earth's magnetic field:data. Solar wind poured in, fueling a period of geomagnetic unrest (Kp=4). So far no reports of auroras have been received, probably due to the glare of northern summer sunlight. Quiet conditions have since resumed."Update: e.g.
"Solar wind
speed: 430.0 km/sec
density: 3.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1842 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1316 UT Jul22
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1850 UT "

Communications relatively clear at this time etc. ... ...

Later, clear dropping tendency and overall drop ... (local min[?]) :
" Solar wind
speed: 414.0 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2243 UT "

Clear communications tonight ...

And ~1(-)hr later, before closing:
"Solar wind
speed: 416.7 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2321 UT "
(dropping again, oscillating ...)

and local min for speed:
" Solar wind
speed: 411.5 km/sec
density: 3.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2325 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 23:
The dropping tendency and major drop in speed (still low densities) confirmed. Dropped for the first time (?) in many days below 400 ... in the early July 23rd hours ... etc. :

" Solar wind
speed: 399.4 km/sec
density: 3.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0203 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0206 UT Jul23
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0210 UT "

And hours later:

" Solar wind
speed: 381.7 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0809 UT "
(dropping oscillating ...)

+ local min just now:
" Solar wind
speed: 380.4 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0812 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1316 UT Jul22
24-hr: B4 1316 UT Jul22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0820 UT

Daily Sun: 23 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

For the first time in many years, there are 6 numbered sunspot groups on the face of the sun. Credit: SDO/HMI"

No problems in communications as of now ... (for now ...) [and prior, since the last blackout etc. ... - see earlier posts etc. ...]

And/But News ... :

"CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS TODAY: Later today, a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters say the glancing blow could spark minor G1-classgeomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras mixed with bright moonlight on July 23-24."

+ while setting up this post, exceeding (on the oscillation) 400 again just now ... (and still temporarilly rising ...):
" Solar wind
speed: 408.3 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0825 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0228 UT Jul23
24-hr: B4 1316 UT Jul22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0830 UT "

And local max (before dropping again, temporarily, oscillating ...) just now, before closing this live update ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 411.4 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0829 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0235 UT Jul23
24-hr: B4 1316 UT Jul22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0835 UT "

P.S.
Interference on SW bands detected, getting to MW band too right now (at least in my location) ... [with this new rise perhaps above 400 ...]

But/and, in the above oscillating, it just dropped again now below 400 ... (local min ...) :
" Solar wind
speed: 391.5 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0855 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1316 UT Jul22
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0900 UT "

However, [perhaps due to lapse/delay in the wind measuring/arriving ...] STILL PROBLEMS with AM communications [mainly SW and MW ... for now], right now [0915 UT] ... ...P.S.': About an hour later [or perhaps less], communications ~ restored (window in communications ...) ...

Still some dropping tendency on the overall oscillating behaviour ... (Other than that, similar behaviour and almost same [order of magnitude or approximate(ly)] levels [for speed and density] ... ...)
E.g. :
" Solar wind
speed: 390.4 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1042 UT "However, starting with low MW bands [and/or possibly LW (which I didn't check at this point) ...] (and rising gradually towards [all] SW bands ... – i.e. inverse than before ...), a NEW RADIO INTERFERENCE started around about 11:10 to 11:15 UT, and definitely confirmed at 11:20 UT (at least in my location ...), ... AND still continues going on until now at 12:15 UT (just before closing) ... etc. [extended now to (all) the said bands above etc. ...] ... ...

Data (e.g.):
" Solar wind
speed: 411.0 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1155 UT "
(~Local max, with prior local min 404.7 at 1143 UT ... – so perhaps a new rising tendency ... – we'll see ... ...)

Explanation: it is still relatively fast (relatively high speed, and although low proton density) and for some reason magnetized solar wind ... to be causing such problems in communications etc. for some days now ... (due to the consecutive [at least 3 days in a row in the past - see older posts ... etc.] halo CMEs perhaps, most likely, [and getting here after ~3days each, one after the other ... etc.] ... ...).
[But] The new storm isn't here yet! ...
[If it comes at all! ...] ...Just before final close, new dropping and dropping tendency etc. to an even lower ~ [local] min seen today and the last few days ... etc. :
" Solar wind
speed: 383.8 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1220 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1004 UT Jul23
24-hr: B4 1316 UT Jul22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1225 UT "

And later, before final closing, NEW DROPPING AND NEW LOCAL (and [perhaps] overall, locally so far, ...) MINIMA :
1.
"Solar wind
speed: 380.2 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1244 UT "

2.
" Solar wind
speed: 374.6 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1248 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1004 UT Jul23
24-hr: B4 1316 UT Jul22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1255 UT "

I saw temporarily MW [or SW (?) ... I don't surely recall which one of the two ...] bands being restored ... etc. (extended to all) [window ...] ... but now worse again (starting at 12:50 UT and even before closing at 1300 UT ! ... [Why?! ...] ...) ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 23rd presented also almost all day problems [on and off] with communications etc. due to the relatively fast magnetized wind (most likely from the backdated consecutive days halo CMEs passing through Earth etc. ... ...). All this up to ~2300+ UT . By midnight UT, and starting July 24, Radio was back to normal, on a relatively quiet night, aside the C4 [long duration] flare at 0033 UT (see ahead) that also caused a temporary radio blackout (below 20HZ) for a few minutes ...
The overall dropping speed tendency continued. It stayed at ~380± mark levels for some time and by morning the Solar Wind RETURNED back to average normal conditions ...
E.g. :

" Solar wind
speed: 245.7 km/sec
density: 0.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0033 UT Jul24
24-hr: C4 0033 UT Jul24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0550 UT"

+ ~ 242.5 ... at 0640 UT,

+
" Solar wind
speed: 244.9 km/sec
density: 0.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0649 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0054 UT Jul24
24-hr: C4 0033 UT Jul24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0655 UT
"

And just now:
" Solar wind
speed: 245.1 km/sec
density: 0.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0654 UT "

Thus seems relatively stable for now ...
And no interference in Radio communications etc. at this point ...

Still the same 6 spots on sight (with 2 of them though right on west limb, to be gone very very soon ... [almost gone over limb already ...]).

& News from spaceweather.com :

1.
"WAITING FOR THE CME: A CME expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd did not arrive on time. It might have missed, or it may yet deliver a glancing blow on July 24th. There is a slight chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms in response to a tardy arrival."

2.
" LONG DURATION SOLAR FLARE:Today began with an explosion on the sun. Minutes after UT midnight, sunspot AR2849 erupted, producing a long-duration C4-class flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the ultraviolet flash:

An hour-long pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, disrupting the usual propagation of radio waves over the Pacific Ocean. Mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators may have noticed sudden drops in signal strength at frequencies below 20 MHz: blackout map.

The explosion also hurled a CME into space: movie. The cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. "

+ SUDDEN RISE in speed just now (from comperable to previously ~245.7±... levels to ~360... ...) [and local max, as after that it started gradually dropping ... (and at the same time starting a new overall rising perhaps oscillation ... ... We'll see ...)] :

" Solar wind
speed: 360.0 km/sec
density: 3.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0801 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0206 UT Jul24
24-hr: C4 0033 UT Jul24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0805 UT

Daily Sun: 24 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2849 just unleashed a C4-class flare and CME. Credit: SDO/HMI "

It could be that the sudden rise was because of (due to) the arriving CME ... (we'll see).

Minor radio interference detected mainly on SW bands, up to less minor in the MW band, at present, as of now at this point ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Similar behaviour continued yesterday (July 24) [speed above 300 to ~360 etc. and minor radio interference, on & off ...] and even until now July 25. It seems the CME either missed or was that minor (+ see below).

" Solar wind
speed: 359.5 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0855 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0457 UT Jul25
24-hr: B3 0902 UT Jul24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0900 UT

Daily Sun: 25 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These sunspots have simple, stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "News from spaceweather.com :

1. " ALL QUIET ALERT: A CME expected to hit Earth on July 23rd or 24th has missed. Our planet's magnetic field is quiet and should remain so until July 28th when a new stream of solar wind arrives. The gaseous material is flowing from a sinuous hole in the sun's atmosphere. "

2.
"ACTIVE STARSCAPE: July 2021 has been a good month for solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 crossed multiple thresholds, including its first X-flareand 6 active regions on the solar disk. The last time so many sunspots were seen at the same time wasSept. 6, 2017. One farside CME was so strong it affected Earth despite being on the wrong side of the sun.

Against this backdrop of activity, on Friday "the sun sat still long enough for me to take its portrait," reports Alan Friedman of Buffalo, New York. Click on this image to see the entire active starscape:

"There were multiple active regions, prominences and a long, undulating filament of hydrogen plasma," says Friedman. "Lots to enjoy!"
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 26 (and forth):

Similar conditions as yesterday maintained until now and it should be that way until about ~July 28 ... (Cf. previous post)

[Almost] All quiet (and expected [the same in the next couple of days etc. ...]) and a nice break & window [to ~ everything ...] ...

Typical ave. example (of data):

" Solar wind
speed: 326.6 km/sec
density: 4.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1000 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 0818 UT Jul26
24-hr: B2 2349 UT Jul25
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1005 UT

Daily Sun: 26 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These sunspots have simple, stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Small look/update later on July 26:

" Solar wind
speed: 306.0 km/sec
density: 7.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1645 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 1609 UT Jul26
24-hr: B2 1609 UT Jul26
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1650 UT "[However, no significant drastic changes – goes still as announced/predicted ... etc.]
(+ The oscillating [up and down, with a regular range] and overal [max & min etc.] varying of the Solar Wind, as well as proton velocities ranging bet. ~ 200-350 Km/sec, and proton densities [relatively low now, these days, below average normal ...] similar to levels seen around these days etc. ..., are in fact NORMAL Solar/Earth/Space Weather average expected Phenomena and Values/data ... ...)P.S.
+ small rise in density (~ local max) now ... (however, still normal[/within normal limits] though) :
"Solar wind
speed: 307.9 km/sec
density: 9.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1744 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Part A (Suppl. for July 26 & briefing for July 27):

After the previous post density was seen rising [more] significantly [at the end of the day] at times (~same levels of speed), e.g. as follows:
July 26
" Solar wind
speed: 322.5 km/sec
density: 13.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT "

And more density rising [at times] on July 27 (otherwise similar behaviour) ..., e.g. as follows:
" Solar wind
speed: 328.6 km/sec
density: 26.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 2226 UT Jul27
24-hr: B9 2226 UT Jul27
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT "

Communications quiet (as far as I know) both days ... ...Part B (July 28):

Obviously the CME is here. E.g. take a look at these data:

" Solar wind
speed: 451.4 km/sec
density: 9.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1044 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0738 UT Jul28
24-hr: B9 2226 UT Jul27
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1050 UT "

And speed & density rising further too (local [and perhaps overall so far] max just now):

" Solar wind
speed: 490.6 km/sec
density: 15.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1050 UT "

(then temporarilly slightly dropping, oscillating ...)

AND just exceeded 500 just now:

" Solar wind
speed: 500.5 km/sec
density: 12.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1100 UT "

Communications are not affected right now, but they were/did earlier.
Speed reached 400 Km/sec at 0455 UT.

News from spaceweather.com :
" THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED:Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing ~400 km/s from a sinuous hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact during the early hours of July 28th opened a crack in Earth's magnetic field, sparking an hours-long episode of minor (Kp=4) geomagnetic unrest. So far, no auroras have been reported. "Update a few hours later (new rise and local max[?] for speed) :

" Solar wind
speed: 539.3 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1445 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 1400 UT Jul28
24-hr: B9 2226 UT Jul27
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1450 UT

Daily Sun: 28 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These decaying sunspots pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Communications still relatively ok though (just minor interference at this point ...).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Auroras reported overnight (early morning hours on July 28):

" RARE BLUE AURORAS OVER CANADA: Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a sinuous hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact during the early hours of July 28th sparked rare blue auroras over Canada. Joel Weatherly sends this picture of the colorful spray just outside Edmonton:

"Despite light pollution, clouds, and bright moonlight, the auroras put on a spectacular show," says Weatherly. "Note the blue on top!"

Auroras are almost always green, and sometimes red or purple. Blue, however, is rare. Weatherly can thank the Moon for its appearance.

Blue is a sign of bright moonlight hitting the top of the auroras. The process is called "resonant scattering." High up in the aurora zone, ionized nitrogen molecules (N2+) naturally produce blue light, just a little; the geomagnetic glow is usually too faint to see. But when these ions get hit by moonlight, they capture and re-emit blue photons from the Moon. Voilà!--extra blue.

Take some nitrogen, add solar wind, mix with moonlight. That's the recipe for aurora blues. "

Increased daylight in high northern latitudes makes auroras generally rarer and hard to detect and see especially this time of the year (day started getting smaller a bit though) ...

 

[Astronuc]

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2021 Jul 28 12:34UTC

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours, with the X-ray
flux below C-level. The two sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 22 / NOAA
AR-2846, and Catania sunspot group 23 / NOAA AR-2847) have produced few
B-class flares. A new bipolar sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 24) has
emerged close to the central meridian at altitude -04 degrees and did not
produce any significant flare. The solar activity is expected to remain at
low levels over the next 24 hours with a small chances of C-class flare.

A large coronal dimming was observed on July 28 from 08:03 UTC to 09:33 UTC
in the north-west quadrant (near latitude 34 degrees and longitude 13
degrees). Further investigation on this event will be provided as data
comes in. The true speed of the coronal mass ejection observed in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraphe images on July 27 at 03:24 UTC with a projected
speed of 388 km/s has been re-evaluated to about 600 km/s with a new
arrival time estimated on July 30 mid days. Only minor to no effect is
expected on the solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity.

http://www.sidc.be/
https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/dayssnplot

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thanks @Astronuc for the excellent source and update ...

July 29 (similar solar wind conditions - no spots now ... etc.)

" Solar wind
speed: 540.6 km/sec
density: 7.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0840 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 0702 UT Jul29
24-hr: B2 1400 UT Jul28
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0845 UT

Daily Sun: 29 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI "

That was local max for speed (regular to low density) a few minutes ago. [Then dopping oscillating up and down ... etc.]
Highest overall max seen these days (i.e. ~global max [upper extremum] for this wind due to this CME) was 570 Km/sec at 03:44 UT.

Communications still relatively ok at this point.

News (from spaceweather.com):

"A CME IS ABOUT TO MISS EARTH (BARELY): Yesterday, July 28th (0700 UT), a magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted. The resulting CME is going to pass by Earth on Aug. 1st, barely missing our planet. NOAA analysts are still studying the eruption; there's a chance the forecast will change from "near miss" to "glancing blow," so stay tuned."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CMEs seems to have [almost] missed Earth ... (for now)

Now, Aug. 2, 2021 (update):

[Relative speed drop (since yesterday etc.) with kind of significant density increase at the same time ... + new spot group (after 5 spotless days) seems to be forming ... : ]

" Solar wind
speed: 385.4 km/sec
density: 22.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1520 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 1521 UT Aug02
24-hr: A6 2327 UT Aug01
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1525 UT

Daily Sun: 02 Aug 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is growing at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "
(+ see: https://spaceweather.com/images2021/02aug21/latest_4096_HMIBC_crop.jpg)New un-numbered (as of yet) high southern latitude spot group arising, after 5 spotless days in a row ...
We'll see how it develops ...

P.S. + yes, just confirmed that the new group developped enough to receive a number, AR2850 ...

P.S.' (latest editing):
News from spaceweather.com:
"DENSE SOLAR WIND: A dense wave of solar wind just crashed, gently, against Earth's magnetic field. This could be the ripple from a passing CME--one of several that left the sun in late July expected to miss Earth by a short distance. High-latitude photographers should be alert for auroras in night-sky exposures on Aug. 2-3."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

On July 3rd conditions returned back to normal ...

Today July 7th a CIR is in progress (due to CMEs differential arrivals ...) and relatively unstable geomagnetic conditions perhaps expected ...

1st in a row spotless day.

Max speed seen so far today (on an overall rising since yesterday) was 426 Km/sec at 1110 UT [i.e. a few minutes ago ...], and relatively increased to high densities today (max 30.12 protons/cm³ at 0445 UT earlier this morning), both oscillating & varying ...

Latest edit: new or returning spot group just seen perhaps appearing or forming on upper east limb ... (no official number yet)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Correction Note: on previous post above meant Aug. 3rd & Aug. 7th ... not July ...]

The Sun is being becoming again very interesting the last few days, especially after ~ Aug. 24th.

The day before yesterday (today is Aug. 28, 2021) :
SOLAR TSUNAMI AND CME: An explosion on the sun on July 26 produced a massive "solar tsunami" and a CME apparently heading for Earth. The eruption was accompanied by a loud clap of radio static, which roared from the loudspeakers of shortwave radios in North America."SOLAR TSUNAMI AND CME: Sunspot AR2859 erupted on Aug. 26th, producing a C3-class solar flare:movie. The flare, however, was not the main attraction. The eruption also caused a massive "solar tsunami." Watch the shadowy wave ripple across the sun in this false-color ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The expanding circular shadow is a wave of hot plasma and magnetism. Based on the time it took to reach the next sunspot, halfway around the sun, the tsunami was traveling faster than 110,000 mph.

Solar tsumanis always herald a CME, and this one was no exception. Soon after the tsunami broke, SOHO coronagraphs detected a CME:movie. The storm cloud appears to be heading for Earth, albeit somewhat off center. NOAA analysts are looking at the CME now, using computer models to determine its arrival time. Our guess: Aug. 30th. Stay tuned."Current Conditions:
" Solar wind
speed: 363.2 km/sec
density: 5.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2110 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1643 UT Aug28
24-hr: M4 0611 UT Aug28
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2115 UT

Daily Sun: 28 Aug 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspots AR2859 and AR2860 are bothcrackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

AR2860 is huge, complex and very "promising", perhaps even for X-class flares ... :

"MAJOR FLARE WARNING: Sunspot AR2860 is big, angry, and it's directly facing Earth. The active region just unleashed a significant M4.7-classsolar flare (Aug. 28 @ 0611 UT), probably hurling a CME toward Earth:movie. If current trends continue, a major X-flare could be in the offing, so stay tuned."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"AURORAS LOVE SEPTEMBER: September is one of the best months of the year for auroras. NASA says so. At this time of year, even minor gusts of solar wind can spark an Arctic light show. Why? Two reasons: (1) Increasing autumn darkness and (2) the Russell-McPherron effect. This sets the stage for possible high-latitude auroras on Sept. 5-6 when a stream of solar wind is expected to reach Earth."

Sept. 5 & 6 :
Highly increased Sunspot activity started on Sept. 5 (up to six groups on appeared sight) and the remaining 4 increased significantly in size further today Sept. 6 ...
Also, Geomagnetic Unrest (not storms though) and possible Auroras are expected today (etc.) ...
https://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=09&year=2021
https://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=06&month=09&year=2021

Current conditions:
"
Solar wind
speed: 314.8 km/sec
density: 7.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0940 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0815 UT Sep06
24-hr: B7 1811 UT Sep05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0945 UT

Daily Sun: 06 Sep 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspots AR2864, AR2866 and AR2868 have all grown in the past 24 hours, but remain mostly quiet. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) "A gust of solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 7th. The sharp uptick in solar wind speed ... ... it made this happen:

"At 2.30 a.m. on Sept. 8th, I woke up and had a look outside," says photographer Thomas Kast of Oulu, Finland. "Wowsers, nearly the whole sky was full of auroras! Got the camera and ran onto the front yard. This is a photo from the back of my camera, when a strong green band rose quickly and brightened the night sky."


... ... Meanwhile, auroras have been reported over Scotland, too. "B) Huge Earth-facing Sunspot groups [large enough to "swallow planets ..." (and even visible with naked eye [with protection of course! - CAUTION ...] ...)] with increased chance of strong Earth-directed solar flare activity (for the next few days or so etc. ...) and [at the same time] increased solar wind, even today Sept. 8, 2021 ... :

" Solar wind
speed: 412.9 km/sec
density: 6.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0955 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0429 UT Sep08
24-hr: C2 0009 UT Sep08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1000 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Sep 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2864 produced a C2-class solar flare and, possibly, a CME on Sept. 8th. Credit: SDO/HMI "

C) "EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Today began with an explosion on the sun. Just after UT midnight on Sept. 8th, sunspot AR2864 unleashed a C2-class solar flare: movie. A pulse of UV radiation ionized Earth's atmosphere, briefly disturbing shortwave radio propagation around the Pacific Rim: map. The explosion might have hurled a CME into space; confirmation is pending fresh data from SOHO."D) Overall local max speed of solar wind seen [so far, today] was 440 Km/sec at 10:17 UT, 10:28 UT and 11:10 UT (a few minutes ago) ... . Earlier (before that) local speed max was 424 at 09:06 UT ... ; and overall local min 374 at 11:40 UT ..., (and, a few minutes ago, 377 at 11:54 UT [and overall dropping ...], while just now new overall local min of 366 at 12:17 UT ...) ... (etc.). [And] For proton density overall local max these days was 30.12 protons/cm³ yesterday Sept. 7 at 14:09 UT ; today Sept. 8, local max of 29.60 at 08:12 UT but [otherwise] generally low to normal proton density so far ... (etc.).E) Caution for communications and internet these days; Auroras likely too ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1) cool picture (posted on spaceweather.com)

2) Also yesterday

(... photographer Ayumi Bakken of Fairbanks, Alaska. "After 1:30 a.m., it shifted to huge pulsating auroras all over the sky, that was so amazing.")
3) And an extra C8 flare and radio blackout yesterday Sept. 8 at 17:36 UT ... (and CMEs coming up pending to reach Earth ...)4) 5 visible numberd spot groups today Sept. 9
"Solar wind
speed: 346.6 km/sec
density: 6.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1654 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 1210 UT Sep09
24-hr: C8 1730 UT Sep08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1700 UT

Daily Sun: 09 Sep 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspots AR2864, AR2866 and AR2868 are all crackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND HALO CME: The morning of Oct. 9, an explosion on the sun hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. It's called a "halo CME" because the storm cloud appears to make a halo around the solar disk as it moves in our direction. Minor to moderately-strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives during the late hours of Oct. 11th or Oct 12th.Note: it came from an M1.6 Solar Flare (Oct. 9).

Today (Oct. 10) ... an estimate from spaceweather.com:
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters have modeled the trajectory of yesterday's CME and confirmed that it will likely arrive on Oct. 11th. The impact could spark G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms. If a moderately-strong G2-storm materializes, sky watchers in the United States could see auroras as far south as a line connecting New York to Oregon."

+ today's Sun:

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2882 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy forM-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

[Stavros Kiri]

AURORAS IN THE USA: Last night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field, sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell phones.

See also spaceweather.com (today's edition) ... + for photos etc.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[The date (for long time range Almanac reasons ...) on the previous post (forgot to mention it explicitly within the post) was October 12, 2021 ... (e.g. when using the spaceweather.com "Time Machine" ... [to e.g. see the pictures/photos of the auroras etc. ... etc.]). ]

Today (Now): Th. October 21, 2021 (~2130 – 2330 UT ± ...)
Current (and previous ~ 7 days) brief report:

1. Currently Significantly high Solar winds (over 500km/sec), and since (significant rise above 400km/sec) late hours of Oct 19 and (~above 500km/sec) [since] Early Hours of Oct 20 ... :

" Solar wind
speed: 520.4 km/sec
density: 6.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2235 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 2213 UT Oct21
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2240 UT

Daily Sun: 21 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2886 has a simple magnetic field that poses little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

(Local max of speed too [~520+ km/sec] around this time ..., & just a bit earlier ~ 2145 UT reached ~528 - 530 [km/sec] local max ..., while the overall global max (over 7 days period) was ~ 550 km/sec at ~ 0120 UT on Oct 20, 2021 ...)
[While before or on October 19 and earlier (within 7 days from today) the Solar Wind Speed was mainly moderate but still relatively high (or a bit above average, so to speak) and between 300-400 km/sec ...]

~ moderate [proton] densities ~all this time ...

2. Radio Blackouts (on and off) and/or Radio interference [strong at times] (mainly for/on MW & SW bands) due to the high speed solar winds especially yesterday & today ..., and ~ 2145 UT today [until about ~2210 UT] there was a land-line internet disruption (at least in my location and for my internet carrier/company) ... which I doubt it was just coincidental ! ... ... (Mobile internet was mostly fine, I think, as far as I know [at that time] ...)

Auroras are expected too since yesterday etc. ... (CME arrival etc. - see 4. ahead)

3. [Today's Solar Almanac] Extreme Space Weather and Severe Solar Storm exactly 20 years ago (Oct 21, 2001 with ~max of Solar Cycle #23) [no severe power or internet disruptions though back them but only many interesting auroras even in lower latitudes ...] (happened due to CMEs ejected after 2 giant almost identical ~ X1.6 + ... strong Solar Flares, when the CMEs arrived Earth after a couple of days or so ... - the phenomenon lasted for over a day&1/2 etc. ...) ...:

("SEVERE SPACE WEATHER: 20 years ago today, two CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field. The rapid double blow sparked a severe geomagnetic storm with auroras so bright they were visible in some US states before nightfall. Power grids, satellite networks and the internet survived the event, which lasted for more than 36 hours.")

Above: Red auroras over Tradate, Italy (latitude +45N), on Oct. 21, 2001. Photo credit: Cesare Guaita​

This is what the sun looked like that day:

4. Explanation of 1., 2. ... :
On Oct 17, ~02:33UT etc., a large corona hole sends solar wind, as announced & posted by spaceweather.com the following day (Oct 18):
"SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A large southern hole in the sun's atmosphere is spewing solar wind toward Earth. ETA: Oct. 19-20. Solar wind speeds could top 500 km/s, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle."
That explains everything.

5. New Sunspot Group (Active Region [that will probably get the number AR2887]) forming on the Sun's SouthEastern Limb [and is responsible for (relatively significant but not yet Earth-directed) B-class Solar Flares]:
"ACTIVITY ON THE SUN'S EASTERN LIMB: A new sunspot group is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, right here. It is crackling with activity. An intensifying series of minor B-class solar flares is probably stronger than it looks because each explosion has been partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun"6. After ~midnight UT (~00:00UT, starting the new day/date, Oct. 22, 2021) solar wind speeds started droping below 500km/sec, with an overall dropping trend (tendency) [but still oscillating up&down a bit], showing finally (after 2 whole days) that the phenomenon is subsiding and the CME is finally passing, heading away from Earth ...

~Local min (for speed) at the time/table below:

" Solar wind
speed: 469.0 km/sec
density: 4.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0240 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 2213 UT Oct21
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0245 UT "

... and still overall dropping (oscillating) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Supplement to previous post etc. + on the new day (today), Oct. 22, 2021 .../+ follow-up post etc. ...] [Additions and corrections etc. ... regarding the (~above ~8 day period, the past days until today, Fri. Oct. 22, 2021 ...) brief report of [the] relatively Interesting (to very interesting and somewhat Unusual etc.) Solar Behaviour and Activity [during that time ...] ...]:1. This was posted on spaceweather.com on Oct. 16:
"CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: Geomagnetic unrest is possible on Oct. 18-19 when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. Sharp, shock-like density gradients and enhanced magnetic fields in CIRs often do a good job sparking Arctic auroras."

2. Oct. 17 picture of events etc. & posts: ...
...

3. Oct 18 picture of events etc. & posts ... : ...
...

4. Oct 19 brief review: ...
...

5. Corrections on previous post: a) ... b) ... c)
...

6. Today Fri. Oct. 22 :
... + latest picture and ~forecast etc. :
... Overall or ~global local max for speed (at the neighbourhood near the starting of the new day [Oct 22] and a bit earlier etc.): ~526-527 Km/sec at 22:37UT last night, ... and then started droppining significantly ..., and [at] ~00:00UT got below or equal to 500... (and as a precursor even a bit earlier before that/then [after ~2300UT ± ...] it also hit those lower values ... ~460... ± ...) ... and then dropped after that to as low as 437Km/sec at 08:08UT this morning (local and overall min ...). After that started rising and showing explicit rising tendency AGAIN, reaching as high as 500 or a bit over at times etc. [one mainly time in particular ... 501 at 12:29UT ...], with an oscillating however behaviour (up & down, and overall slowly rising etc., perhaps most of the time, for now etc. ...) ..., even until now or recently ... ... : (e.g.)

" Solar wind
speed: 478.4 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1201 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1205 UT

Daily Sun: 22 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new and potentially active sunspot group is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "
{~ local min for speed ...}
[+ ~ same picture before that, at 11:45UT ... (478.2 ..., 6.3 ...)]And subsequently:
" Solar wind
speed: 483.7 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1205 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1210 UT "
{Local max for speed}

And exactly the same picture/numbers/values as above [11min later] at 12:16 UT (for speed & density), while in between (12:10 UT) speed dropped just a bit (at ~481... or ~482... ± ... etc.) ... etc. (minor oscillations ...).

+ e.g. local overall min for around this time ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 477.0 km/sec
density: 7.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1235 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1240 UT "

... Then rose again above 480... even close or/and expected to get higher ... ~500... more or less ± again ... ... etc.
(So it looks like another wave ... [of Solar Wind ...] etc.)
... ... etc.

...

However, later look just before closing this Live Watch ..., SURPRISE significant DROP! :
" Solar wind
speed: 445.5 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1321 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1325 UT "

(Winding down again?! ... ...)

Or rather it looks like a major end dive? ... : (~local min ... [?])
" speed: 434.4 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1327 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1330 UT "

And 429Km/sec (overall global local min for now) seen at 13:23UT ..., 437 at 13:33UT ..., and then started rising a bit again with max 468 (local max), for now, seen at ~13:39UT ... ... ...

Even higher at 13:46UT (~478... again etc. ...) ... ... etc.
["Solar wind
speed: 478.3 km/sec
density: 4.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1346 UT"]And now (final) ... Guess what!? [Another major end-signifying drop down to regular normal average values ... with density rising at the same time ...] :
" Solar wind
speed: 358.5 km/sec
density: 13.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1407 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1410 UT ".

Also (overall global & local min) of ~348...± seen at ~14:03UT ...

This (although temporary - due to still oscillating up&down etc. [even after that reached again ~ 500...± - see below etc.] ...) was either signifying [of] the almost end of the phenomenon etc., that will eventually ~stabilize (with less and minor still oscillations and fluctuations eventually etc. ...) etc. ..., OR it is indeed temporary, and it's not over yet (may not - though I doubt it - it did it before [though] etc.) ..., or a new one may be starting etc. (?) [any (&other) ideas etc.? ...] ... ... (I will research/look into that later ..., both by Almanac announcements and past, present or future events etc. and by futher perhaps Live Watch(es) ... later (and in the future ahead) ... [if (deemed) significant or necessary ... etc.] ...) .

Last set of measurements/data:
" Solar wind
speed: 495.5 km/sec
density: 4.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1436 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1105 UT Oct22
24-hr: B8 1515 UT Oct21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1440 UT "

[And it even went up to almost exactly 500Km/sec (±) (local and ~ overall for around now etc. Max, for now etc. ...) JUST a bit after that ... (or [a bit] before, or perhaps both ...) ! ... . ] [added later: I actually did confirm/(I verified) a 503 ... at 14:37UT ... (and there was another neighbouring a bit less one just before or right at 14:36 or 14:35 ...). ]

End of Live watch (for now and/or for today etc.).

2.-5. in the next post ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Some items still pending from previous post (probably for later).

In the meantime, today Thu Oct. 28, 2021:

SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: There was a global eruption on the sun today. It started with a powerful X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR2887. The blast created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere, which rippled across the entire solar disk. A CME is probably heading for Earth, raising the possibility of a geomagnetic storm on Halloween.

And from spaceweather.com :
" Solar wind
speed: 294.1 km/sec
density: 14.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 1953 UT Oct28
24-hr: X1 1535 UT Oct28
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 28 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Any eruptions today will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI "

&

" MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR2887. The blast at 1535 UT on Oct. 28th created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere:

The blast also hurled a CME into space. Coronagraph images are not yet available, but evidence for a CME is already pursuasive. The USAF reports strong Type II and Type IV radio emissions generated by a CME plowing through the sun's atmosphere. In addition, energetic particles accelerated at the leading edge of a CME have already reached Earth.

When will the CME itself arrive? Assuming that it is Earth directed, probably on Oct. 30th or 31st. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs will allow a more precise forecast, so stay tuned.

During the flare, a pulse of X-rays and extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout centered on South America:

Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators on the daylit side of Earth may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

Sunspot AR2887 may not be finished yet. It has already produced two M-class flares and an X-flare today. The active region is directly facing Earth, so any additional eruptions should be geoeffective. "

&

" CME UPDATE: First-look images of today's CME are arriving from SOHO now.Take a look. The bulk of the CME appears to be flying south of the sun-Earth line. However, there's still a good chance of an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned as more data become available."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) For Fri Oct 29, 2021

1) spaceweather.com announcement + forecast comments etc.:
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Oct. 30th when the CME from yesterday's X1-flare is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Such storms can spark naked-eye auroras as far south as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic latitude) and photographic auroras at even lower latitudes. Lesser G1 and G2-class storms could persist through Halloween as Earth passes through the CME's wake."
(from spaceweather.com Oct. 29, 2021 edition)

This storm will probably be a bit stronger than other times (for this cycle so far).
Even internet [and perhaps telephone lines etc. - not power grid though probably at this point] etc. (besides radio communications etc.) may be at risk this weekend [and up until Mon or Tue etc., perhaps - depending on time of arrival of the CME etc. ...] (low to minor risk).
[These, however, so far, are regular (medium to mild), expected and routine Solar Phenomena for this new current (perhaps a bit overperforming) Solar Cycle # 25 (currently at max, peaking around ~2024-25) ... ...
Things might get worse though, as the cycle moves on ...
So caution is needed and advised ...]
#solar #sun #spaceweather #solarstorm #earth #radio #communications #halloween #weekend #risk #new #internet #warning

[Note: on Th Oct 21 (after midnight - i.e. early am hours of Fri 22nd, in my location) there was a brief internet failure [at least in my location and for my hard line carrier (mobile network I think was probably fine)] perhaps due to the fast passing [strong] solar wind (see earlier posts) that peaked at a max around that time (~21:45 UT) (and noticed the failure between ~21:45 or 21:50 – 22:10 or 22:15 UT ...) ...]2) Ending of Oct 29 picture of data and Almanac:
" Solar wind
speed: 315.1 km/sec
density: 7.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 2209 UT Oct29
24-hr: M1 0242 UT Oct29
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 29 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class and X-class solar flares. Any eruptions today will be geoeffective because the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Note also that there are 5 numbered active spot groups on the Sun at this point (or 6 max, if AR2887 is/may be actually two groups and not just one ... [see earlier dates]); and also AR2891 is significant and relatively big too ...3) Other/more:

" THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION: Here it comes. A coronal mass ejection (CME) launched on Oct. 28th by an X1-class solar flare is heading almost directly for Earth. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the CME racing away from the sun faster than 1457 km/s (3.3 million mph):

The movie is full of "snow"--speckles caused by solar protons striking the coronagraph's CCD camera. These particles were accelerated toward the spacecraft (and toward Earth) by shock waves in the leading edge of the CME. Traveling at relativistic speeds, the protons reached us in less than an hour. The CME itself will take more than two days to cross the sun-Earth divide. ETA: Oct. 30th or 31st."

&

"SOLAR RADIO BURST: Who says explosions in space make no sound? The X1-class solar flare on Oct. 28th created a loud burst of static in shortwave radio receivers on Earth. Click to hear what emerged from Thomas Ashcraft's loudspeaker in rural New Mexico:

View the dynamic spectrum or listen to the audio​

"I captured the X1 flare on my spectrograph and audio recorders," says Ashcraft. "It was super dynamic. It is not often to see a solar radio event showing up in purple range on my radio telescope."

Astronomers classify solar radio bursts into 5 types. Ashcraft recorded a mixture of Type II and Type V. These are caused, respectively, by shock waves and electron beams moving through the sun's atmosphere in the aftermath of strong flares. "B) Today, Sat. Oct 30, 2021:

1) Announcement update:
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters say there is an 85% chance of geomagnetic storms on Oct. 30th when a CME (described below) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. It could be a strong storm, category G3, which means auroras could descend to mid-latitudes--places like Kansas, Nebraska, Oregon, Virginia. The CME's arrival time is uncertain; estimates range from midday on Oct. 30th to the early hours of Oct. 31st."2) Current data watch etc.:

" Solar wind
speed: 315.6 km/sec
density: 14.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0750 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0315 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0755 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

&

" Solar wind
speed: 316.5 km/sec
density: 12.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0755 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0315 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0800 UT "
Note: only 4 spot groups are left/(remaining) today [one gone ...]
(max 5 ... if ... cf. above ...)...

 

[sophiecentaur]

The movie is full of "snow"--speckles caused by solar protons striking the coronagraph's CCD camera.

That's brilliant.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Follow up post/watch (Oct 30, 2021):

Values seem to be rising (rising trend? ... we'll see):

" Solar wind
speed: 318.8 km/sec
density: 22.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1304 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0953 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1310 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 319.7 km/sec
density: 24.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1311 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0953 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1315 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Still for Oct 30, 2021:
Yes, finally it was a slowly rising tendency (both for speed and proton density) that continued all day yesterday (today is Oct 31), with speed exceeding 350Km/sec, even exceeded 400Km/sec etc. ..., and continued [rising tendency etc.] even until today, with a max (around the time when the CME arrived - after all it was a weak impact - see ahead) of 458Km/sec at ~11:30UT ...
However, it seems that the initial rising tendency [see previous post yesterday etc.] (and especially the rising in the proton density, accompanied with smooth slowly rising of speed etc.) etc. may have been due to a different phenomenon and not due to the arrival of the CME yet at that point (see ahead) ...

These are from yesterday:

E.g.
" Solar wind
speed: 387.3 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2319 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2129 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: We're still waiting for the CME. Right now minor geomagnetic unrest is happening at Arctic latitudes. This is due to a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field--a phenomenon unrelated to the incoming CME. So far the much-anticipated storm has not yet begun. Subscribers to ourSpace Weather Alert Service will receive a text message when the CME strikes.

MODELLING THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION--UPDATED: NOAA forecasters have a sophisticated computer program called "WSA-ENLIL," which models the propagation of CMEs through interplanetary space. Here is the latest model for the CME now approaching Earth:

If these images confuse you, here is a labeled frame to help make sense of it.

The computer model predicts that the CME will make first contact with our planet around 1800 UT on Oct. 30th. That time has already passed, so the CME must be moving more slowly than forecasters thought. A slower moving-CME could deliver a weaker blow, and thus a less intense storm.

The model also predicts a sharp increase in solar wind speed (800 km/s) and a 5-fold jump in solar wind density in the CME's wake. Such conditions, if they materialize, could still fuel a potent storm despite the CME's tardy arrival.

Our revised forecast calls for G2 or G3 conditions during the early hours of Oct. 31st. Happy Halloween! "B) Today Oct 31, 2021:

1) [from spaceweather.com]
" WEAK CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 31st at approximately 10:00 UT. The impact was weak--a far cry from the "big hit" we expected. What happened? It's possible that the bulk of the Oct. 28th CME missed our planet; after all, it was directed somewhat south of the sun-Earth line. Despite the feebleness of the impact, minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are still possible in the hours ahead. (...)

AURORAS OVER ICELAND: Last night (Oct. 30th) on the south coast of Iceland, Christopher Mathews was waiting for the CME to arrive when, suddenly, the sky filled with auroras:

"The rock formation just offshore is all that remains of an extinct volcano eroded by North Atlantic waves," says Mathews, who took the picture from the Reykjanes Peninsula.

Spoiler alert: This was not the big CME everyone was waiting for. Instead, Mathews may have observed the near-miss of a different CME, a minor cloud which left the sun on Oct. 26th. It was expected to pass close to Earth on Oct. 30th--and apparently it did. A ripple in the solar wind from the nearby CME disturbed Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras over Iceland and Scandinavia. "

2) Latest watch:

E.g.
" Solar wind
speed: 428.4 km/sec
density: 12.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1457 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0923 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 1529 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1500 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new and active sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 434.5 km/sec
density: 12.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1506 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0923 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 1529 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1510 UT "

...

" Solar wind
speed: 433.6 km/sec
density: 12.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0955 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1550 UT "

And just before closing:

" Solar wind
speed: 423.0 km/sec
density: 11.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1616 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 1615 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1620 UT "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 420.7 km/sec
density: 11.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1620 UT
...

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 1615 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1625 UT "

...

[Showing a perhaps dropping tendency at this point, as if the main part of storms or of the phenomenon is passing ... (we'll see) ]
[Radio interference, perhaps mainly low to mild, was seen with above earlier speeds etc. ...]

P.S.
1) And a later look:
" Solar wind
speed: 412.6 km/sec
density: 9.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2030 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2035 UT "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 405.9 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2046 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2050 UT "

+ rising again (!?) ... (or temporary? ...) :
" Solar wind
speed: 435.0 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2056 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2100 UT "

...

2) Latest description from spaceweather.com (and kind of apologetic ...):
" WEAK CME IMPACT AND GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 31st at ~10:00 UT. The impact was weak--a far cry from the "big hit" we expected--and it sparked an equally weak G1-class geomagnetic storm.

In Alberta, Canada, photographer Harlan Thomas stayed up all night waiting for the predicted strong geomagnetic storm. Instead, he caught this lesser display just before sunrise over icy Dewitt Pond:

"It was a short-lived event," says Thomas. "The auroras were active and battled the twilight until about 45 minutes before the sun came up."

In summary, the Halloween Storm of 2021 was more trick than treat. What happened? It's possible that the bulk of the Oct. 28th CME simply missed our planet. The source of the CME, sunspot AR2887, is located in the sun's southern hemisphere. When it exploded 3 days ago, much of the debris flew south of the sun-Earth line. Computer models suggesting a direct hit apparently gave too little weight to the CME's assymetry.

Hey, it happens! Space weather forecasting is a probabilistic activity beset by the unknowns of storms that get started 93 million miles away from Earth and glide for days invisibly through the near vacuum of interplanetary space before they spring upon us with little warning. May be next time... "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

An interesting follow up post about the previous event etc. (and Oct 31 & Nov 1) will be posted later. In the meantime:

Tue Nov. 2, 2021

A)
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Nov. 4th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on Nov. 1st by an M1-class solar flare from departing sunspot AR2887. We're not certain yet, but another CME may be following close behind it. Read on...

YET ANOTHER SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2891 is directly facing Earth--and it just exploded. An M1-class solar flare rocked the sunspot's magnetic canopy on Nov. 2nd. It was slow flare, starting at 0300 UT and lasting for hours.

Above: A movie of the flare at 131 Å. More wavelengths:193 Å, 171 Å, 131 Å.​

Slow solar flares do one thing very well: Produce CMEs. This one hurled a CME directly toward Earth. Newly-arriving data from SOHO coronagraphs show a halo CME due to arrive on Nov. 5th.

X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a minor shortwave radio blackout over Australia and southeast Asia: map. Aviators, mariners and ham radio operators might have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~25 MHz. "

B) Irrelevant other effect/phenomenon (to be explained) right now, today (started rising speed yesterday ...) ... :

" THE SOLAR WIND IS BLOWING: Earth is inside a stream of fast-moving (600 km/s) solar wind, which is causing geomagnetic unrest around the poles on Nov. 2nd. This is not a storm-level event. However, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras. "

C) Update on A) etc. ...

" A HALO CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: The sun just hurled a storm cloud toward Earth. It launched during the early hours of Nov. 2nd, propelled by an M1.7-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2891. This movie from SOHO shows the resulting CME:

Researchers call this a "halo CME" because the storm cloud apppears to form an expanding halo all the way around the sun. It's a sign that the CME is heading directly for our planet.

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

The X-factor in this forecast is the possible arrival of one or more glancing-blow CMEs beginning Nov. 4th. These were emitted by departing sunspot AR2887 near the edge of the Earth strike-zone. A series of glancing blows on Nov. 4th could set the stage for stronger than expected storms on Nov. 5th. "

D) Recent today's [~Live] Look:
After a speed global overall Max of 632-34 Km/sec a few hours ago (and a first high local max of 619Km/sec at 0700 UT, this morning – while yesterday it closed with a rising ~478Km/sec [or 468? ~ ...] ...), here is a recent picture etc., about a bit less than an hour ago ...:

" Solar wind
speed: 589.3 km/sec
density: 8.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1305 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1550 UT

Daily Sun: 02 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for Earth-directed M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And a bit later (new rising again, and also, in addition to that below, local max again of ~619Km/sec at ~17:10 UT ...):

" Solar wind
speed: 616.1 km/sec
density: 9.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1712 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1305 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1715 UT "More details perhaps later.

Later look and evaluation revealed an overall global max, for solar wind speed, of 645Km/sec at 15:33 UT, for today [Tue, 2 Nov, 2021] ... (earlier today) ... – ... and estimates are that it starts dropping now, ... (for now at least) ... [19:00 UT] –

A local overall so far Min of 561Km/sec was seen at 18:41 UT ... and overall still dropping (but the wind is still oscillating, up & down ... etc.) ... for now ... [20:00 UT]

P.S. Further closer look discovered [more] ~isolated points/measurements of local minima (in this recent descend dropping region of the curve), as follows:
1) 552 Km/sec at 16:50 UT (Global regional min, earlier today, before a stable drop was obvious ... )
2) 556 ... at 18:34 UT (local overall min signifying the dropping recent segment of the curve )
3) 560 ... at 18:47 ... (Local min, beats the already posted next/cf. earlier above)
and
4) 561 ... at 18:41 (posted earlier .../see earlier above) ...

Notes: 1) It could be that this fast wind was/is still from the Halloween flare and CME ...
2) Radio communications etc., although the fast wind, seemed mostly fine today (just some Geomagnetic unrest) [except for around the live flares times interference ... etc. ... - see earlier ...].

Latest last view before final close of this ~Live Watch:
" Solar wind
speed: 573.6 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2126 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1633 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2130 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wed, 3 Nov., 2021

" HERE COMES A CANNIBAL CME: It's official. The CME heading for Earth is a cannibal. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the CME leaving the sun on Nov. 2nd following a slow-motion solar flare (M1.7) in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2891:

Cannibal CMEs are fast coronal mass ejections that sweep up slower CMEs in front of them. Piled together, the mish-mash of CMEs contain strong magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms.

The slower CMEs, in this case, were hurled into space on Nov. 1st and 2nd by departing sunspot AR2887. NOAA analysts plugged all the plasma clouds into a computer model, and this is what they found:

The animation shows the cannibal cloud sweeping up one whole CME and a portion of another. If NOAA's model is correct, the combined CME will make first contact with our planet around 2300 UT on Nov. 3rd, with geomagnetic storms commencing on Nov. 4th.

The model also predicts a +300 km/s increase in solar wind speed and a 5-fold jump in solar wind density in the CME's wake. These conditions, if they materialize, would set the stage for geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2. "

(More later - see below √)

E.g. (for today's picture - wind speed has in fact indeed dropped today, but still remains on the relatively [medium to] high scale ... [and almost similar levels all day so far ... (with expected oscillations etc. ...)]):
" Solar wind
speed: 523.9 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0940 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0830 UT Nov03
24-hr: C1 1305 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0945 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Updated forecast models from NOAA suggest that a cannibal CME (described below) will hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 4th around 0600 UT. The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle down to latitudes as low as ~55 degrees. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CME impact and high solar wind again

" Solar wind
speed: 762 km/sec
density: 0.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2111 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2111 UT Nov03
24-hr: C3 2111 UT Nov03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2115 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Updated forecast models from NOAA suggest that a cannibal CME ... will hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 4th around 0600 UT. The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle down to latitudes as low as ~55 degrees."

And

"CME IMPACT: Deep space satellites have just detected a CME minutes away from hitting Earth's magnetic field. See the data. It is not yet clear if this is the "Cannibal CME" described ... or a precursor CME that was not swept up by the cannibal cloud. G1- to G2-classgeomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead."

+ the latest announcements:

"CME IMPACT --> GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A cannibal CME, described below, has just hit Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft show a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. G1- to G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead."

"CME IMPACT SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A cannibal CME, described below, hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 3rd at approximately 20:00 UT. Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft show a stairstep structureindicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway now."Max wind speed (seen so far): 831 Km/sec at 23:09 UT (on Nov. 3rd)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

News Th Nov 4, 2021 (etc.)

" CME IMPACT SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A cannibal CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 3rd (~20:00 UT). The impact sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with intense auroras around the Arctic Circle. Aurora tour guide Markus Varikphotographed the outburst from Tromsø, Norway:

Varik is one of the most experienced guides in Norway. "Even I was impressed," he says. "The auroras were strong, one of the best displays in years. I am very tired, but happy."

Earth is now passing through the CME's wake. Storm conditions have subsided to category G1 (minor) with occasional episodes of G2 (moderately strong). This means auroras may be visible in northern-tier US states such as Minnesota and Montana. Dark skies are essential, so get away from city lights. (...)

What is a Cannibal CME? It's a CME that eats its own kind. On Nov. 2nd, sunspot AR2891 hurled a fast CME toward Earth. As it approached our planet, it overtook at least one other CME and swallowed it. The mashed-up pair struck Earth on Nov. 3rd (2000 UT). Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft showed a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. "

" CME BALLOON LAUNCH: Within minutes of the CME's arrival, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus and Spaceweather.com launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. Ten years of practice helps get a balloon in the air quickly:

We will launch a follow-up balloon after the geomagnetic storm subsides--all part of our decade-long monitoring program to see how solar activity affects atmospheric radiation. And, yes, that *is* a Tardis hitching a ride on the payload. If it survives the storm, it will be sold in the ... (...) . "