COVID Covid-19 vaccines: excitement or fear?

[waternohitter]

When I heard or read the news that giving vaccines will be mandatory, I have a feeling of getting paranoid about it and can’t control myself not to worry about it. Are you guys feel the same way around?

 

[Borek]

Why should we? Every member of PF was mandatorily vaccinated against many common diseases and we are all happy, healthy and kicking.

Actually if not for those mandatory vaccines number of happy PF users would be substantially lower.

 

[russ_watters]

When I heard or read the news that giving vaccines will be mandatory...

Where did you hear that? I've actually heard it won't be mandatory for most people, which disappoints me.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3797885001

 

[Rive]

By the times us common folk will have a chance to get it I think it'll be considerably safer than taking a bath.

Likely I'll have a somewhat elevated heart rate while getting it, but nonetheless. Can't wait to finish worrying.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I like mandatory. Hard to be mandatory without also being free.

 

[aheight]

When I heard or read the news that giving vaccines will be mandatory, I have a feeling of getting paranoid about it and can’t control myself not to worry about it. Are you guys feel the same way around?

No. The Phase-3 results are irrefutably hard-empirical-data. I recall a documentary I once watched about polio: The doctor, grimacing, looking up from the little girl and telling the parents . . . "infantile paralysis".

 

[Vanadium 50]

The Phase-3 results are irrefutably hard-empirical-data.

Yes, but.

A trial of 30,000-40,000 people can detect problems at the 10^-4 level. Twice as many people in the trial, and you are a factor of 2 more sensitive. So zero bad reactions in a trial of this size means fewer than 30000 to 35000 bad reactions in the US as a whole if everybody is vaccinated. That's less than 10% of the current Covid integrated fatalities.

Odds not good enough? Nothing says one needs to claw one's way to the head of the line. If a million people go first, and they do not show any bad reactions, your sensitivity is about 3 x 10^-6 level, or about 1000 bad reactions. This is less likely than going to the ER because of a pogo-stick injury.

Still not good enough? Let ten million people - still only 3% of the population - go ahead of you. Now the sensitivity is 3 x 10^-7, and we can be sure there will be fewer than 100 bad reactions. This is less likely than being struck by lightning.

Still not good enough? Let 100 million people go ahead of you - you're still in the front half of the line. Now the sensitivity is 3 x 10^-8, and we can be sure there will be fewer than 10 bad reactions. This is less likely than becoming President.

 

[waternohitter]

Where did you hear that? I've actually heard it won't be mandatory for most people, which disappoints me.

I heard from a reliable friend of mine. But I will be glad if it's not mandatory.

 

[berkeman]

I heard from a reliable friend of mine. But I will be glad if it's not mandatory.

It could be mandatory for some employment and for travel...

https://abc7news.com/health/who-can-require-you-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine/8828194/

 

[kyphysics]

Where did you hear that? I've actually heard it won't be mandatory for most people, which disappoints me.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3797885001

There's this, though: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/cov...e-you-if-you-refuse-the-coronavirus-shot.html
Companies can apparently fire you for not getting the vaccine.

 

[Mondayman]

Some people I know were throwing around the fact that 4 people out of 43,000 developed Bells Palsy shortly after taking the vaccine as reason to not take the vaccine. Sometimes I hate Alberta..

 

[berkeman]

Some people I know were throwing around the fact that 4 people out of 43,000 developed Bells Palsy shortly after taking the vaccine as reason to not take the vaccine. Sometimes I hate Alberta..

You haven't read the details of that, have you? Maybe you should. You should not rely on "some people said"...

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-we-know-link-between-bells-palsy-covid-19-vaccines-2020-12

The rate of Bell's Palsy in the group was not much different from the rate in the general population, and one person who received the placebo also developed Bell's Palsy. Maybe we should outlaw placebo injections?

The FDA has said that it can't rule out with absolute certainty that Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine did not have an impact on these seven cases, and the agency will continue to investigate the issue. But based on the evidence we have, there's no reason to think the vaccine caused the facial paralysis, according to Dr. Nate Jowett, director of the surgical photonics & engineering laboratory at Mass Eye & Ear, and an associate professor of otolaryngology at Harvard Medical School.

 

[russ_watters]

I think you misread the post @berkeman -- he's not questioning the safety, he's mad that some people he knows are.

 

[berkeman]

he's not questioning the safety, he's mad that some people he knows are.

Oh, oops. Apologies, @Mondayman and thanks Russ.

 

[256bits]

Some people I know were throwing around the fact that 4 people out of 43,000 developed Bells Palsy shortly after taking the vaccine as reason to not take the vaccine. Sometimes I hate Alberta..

Nothing to do with Alberta. Normal people just talk like that to flush out their own apprehensions and misgivings in all sorts of situations.
It's the ones given air time on radio and TV that should be turned off

Plus there is a lot of reasons to not get vaccinated
- don't like needles.
- I have to get up and go somewhere for the shot, simply inconvenient, and twice too!
- allergies
- etc

Good reasons to get the vaccine is that of the 43000 who took the vaccine, they won't
- be part of the 400 to 800 case fatality if they would acquire the disease.
- they won't be held up sickly, or in a hospital bed with more severe symptoms.

It's counter information that can convince those sitting on the fence.
I think most of the populations have already expressed that they would be willing and able to receive a shot, so it's not as dire as one would think listening to talk around the cooler.
Mandatory is probably not necessary generally speaking.

 

[256bits]

There's this, though: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/cov...e-you-if-you-refuse-the-coronavirus-shot.html
Companies can apparently fire you for not getting the vaccine.

Aren't the Covid RNA vaccines supposed to suppress the symptoms, not the actual acquiring of the disease. Or is that too simplistic?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You are all missing the difficult sell. It is easy to argue the logic of short-term testing and safety. But we have zero data on long-term effects. It can only be argued that there is no known biological reason why there should be long-term effects.

That is an abstraction and not hard data. Therefore it is much harder to sell. And that is what worries most people.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It is also the very first vaccine of it's kind. So it seems that we are in uncharted waters.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Is that spike protein or one like it found anywhere else in humans? Could there be some biological function that might depend on a similar spike protein that is important to our biology, that could be affected by this vaccine?

Not something I've worried about but certainly easy enough to imagine and wonder about.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

You are all missing the difficult sell. It is easy to argue the logic of short-term testing and safety. But we have zero data on long-term effects. It can only be argued that there is no known biological reason why there should be long-term effects.

That is an abstraction and not hard data. Therefore it is much harder to sell. And that is what worries most people.

While that is true, you also have to consider the other side of the risk-benefit equation. We also don't know much about the long term consequences of COVID-19 (though there is increasing literature documenting "long COVID" patients with symptoms persisting for months). Uncertainty about long term effects poses risks on both sides of the risk benefit equation.

Is that spike protein or one like it found anywhere else in humans? Could there be some biological function that might depend on a similar spike protein that is important to our biology, that could be affected by this vaccine?

Not something I've worried about but certainly easy enough to imagine and wonder about.

No. The Spike protein is found only in the SARS-CoV-2 virus and is not encoded in the human genome. In fact, if you search for proteins with similar sequences to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the human genome, you find no human proteins with significant similarity.

 

[DaveC426913]

Saw a meme the other day:

Less than 1% chance of death from Coronavirus: "We will not live in fear!"
Less than 1% chance of side-effects from vaccine: "We fear it."

When I heard or read the news that giving vaccines will be mandatory..

Well getting the Coronavirus is mandatory (in that you don't have a choice), but that doesn't seem to bother these people...

 

[Office_Shredder]

Is that spike protein or one like it found anywhere else in humans? Could there be some biological function that might depend on a similar spike protein that is important to our biology, that could be affected by this vaccine?

Not something I've worried about but certainly easy enough to imagine and wonder about.

If this is true, you are equally screwed if you get Coronavirus and your body develops antibodies, right?

 

[waternohitter]

This thing is really stressful and to cope up this feeling I spend time reading articles and I found this one, https://www.who.int/publications/i/...6icr6c2uUAKmWSvEGNWngzzAq-rH__zRoCHRsQAvD_BwE

 

[kyphysics]

And that is what worries most people.

It's a risk my elderly relatives are willing to take. We've lost one of them already, so it's very serious for my family. COVID's immediate danger seems greater than the vaccine's potential long-term negative side effects.

You can die within weeks of contracting COVID.

 

[waternohitter]

It's a risk my elderly relatives are willing to take. We've lost one of them already, so it's very serious for my family. COVID's immediate danger seems greater than the vaccine's potential long-term negative side effects.

You can die within weeks of contracting COVID.

Yup, I agree with you. I am more worried about the vaccine than the virus.

 

[Rive]

...COVID's immediate danger seems greater than the vaccine's potential long-term negative side effects.

This part always buggin' me. Why do people think that Covid can't have: won't have long term effects?

 

[russ_watters]

This part always buggin' me. Why do people think that Covid can't have: won't have long term effects?

It can. The difference is the long term effects decrease over time whereas it is speculated that long term effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The difference is the long term effects decrease over time whereas it is speculated that long term effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time.

Is there a source for these claims?

 

[Vanadium 50]

A source that people are speculating?

 

[russ_watters]

Is there a source for these claims?

As far as I know, there isn't (edit: it's logically impossible to prove/disprove); they are primarily just vague fears. Please note: they aren't my claims/I'm not making any claims here; they are an explanation of the fears being expressed by others in the thread.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

A source that people are speculating?

Is there a reason why people would expect adverse "effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time." Certainly we don't have long term data on vaccine safety that goes beyond ~2 months, so we can't say that there are no adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time period. However, this is different than making the claim that we would expect a vaccine that shows good short term safety to have adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time scale. For example, from our experience with many other vaccines, adverse events from vaccines tend to manifest fairly soon after vaccination and are temporary. While the mRNA vaccines are different from other vaccines, there is no reason to think that the technology would be more likely to cause longer-term effects as the mRNAs are quickly degraded in the body.

 

[Rive]

The difference is the long term effects decrease over time...

With that possible damage made to vein walls, I would expect side effects becoming considerably worse over time.

Anyway. The point is, I can't understand why there are such expectations glued to the 'dead' vaccine while seemingly no such fears for the 'wild' virus itself. Beats me.

 

[russ_watters]

[reverse ordered]
However, this is different than making the claim that we would expect a vaccine that shows good short term safety to have adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time scale.

Nobody has made such a claim, that I've seen.

Is there a reason why people would expect adverse "effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time." Certainly we don't have long term data on vaccine safety that goes beyond ~2 months, so we can't say that there are no adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time period.

The lack of long-term data is exactly the "problem" for people who have a fear of the unknown. For all we know, everyone who gets the vaccine could drop dead a year after getting it. We have no data to say one way or another whether that is possible, and people fill-up the information gap with wild speculation and fear. Is it even remotely likely? No, but good luck trying to prove it to someone with fear/trust issues.

[edit] I used to have the same argument with people who were afraid of/against genetically modified crops. The question is: how much long-term data is necessary to prove there are no adverse long-term effects? The answer is always: "more".

 

[waternohitter]

Let's put this convo a rest and celebrate the new year with our family. How are you guys doing right now?

 

[Rive]

Why do people think that Covid can't have: won't have long term effects?

Long, bad Covid

And this is just part of the thing. I suppose there will be more coming with long term effect of (parially recovered) blood vessel damages.

Vaccine vs. Covid 'live' - hard to expect worse from a vaccine, yet fear from 'long term vaccine' is driving the refusal, while 'long Covid' is kind of taken as no concern.

Homo Sapiens Weirdos

 

[Motore]

To my (somewhat limited) knowledge of vaccines and the imune system, this mRNA vaccine seems way safer than the inactivated or dead virus vaccines. And way way way way safer then getting the virus. I am super excited to get it. I just hope I get the vaccine before I contract the virus...

 

[fluidistic]

I have read that the spike protein of the sars-cov2 virus can cause brain fog (doesn't sound healthy, isn't it? Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201217154046.htm). Does this mean that the vaccine(s) that make our cells make these spike proteins can cause brain fog?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I have read that the spike protein of the sars-cov2 virus can cause brain fog (doesn't sound healthy, isn't it? Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201217154046.htm). Does this mean that the vaccine(s) that make our cells make these spike proteins can cause brain fog?

1) The paper cited by the article (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-020-00771-8) shows that the spike protein can cross the blood-brain barrier to enter the brain. Based on this data, the article speculates that the SARS-CoV-2 virus infecting cells in the brain could cause some of the cognitive symptoms associated with COVID-19. They do not argue that is the spike protein alone causing these effects.

2) The mRNA vaccines are injected intramuscularly in the arm and would be expected to act mostly locally in that area (only causing cells in the immediate vicinity to take up the mRNA and begin producing spike protein). The spike proteins produced by the vaccine would be tethered to the membranes of the cells that produced them, so they would not be free to circulate through the blood and enter the brain.

3) From the phase 3 clinical trials of both the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, we have data on tens of thousands of individuals who have received the vaccine, and researchers have tracked the side effects experienced by those individuals. The side effects are consistent with what one would expect for a vaccine, and researchers do not see lasting cognitive effects similar to those experienced by people with COVID-19.

 

[Frodo]

US Deaths from Covid-19 to 10 Jan 2021: 365,597 CDC COVID Data Tracker

There is no sign of the death rate even slowing - it's now over 3,000 deaths per day.

US soldiers killed in Vietnam war: 58,220 US National Archives

At the current death rate this equates to about 20 days of Covid deaths.

And some people still refuse to think it is a problem ...

Remember every time you see someone without a mask that he or she is endangering everyone in his or her vicinity.

You wear a mask primarily to protect other people. But many people don't care about others and put their trivial inconvenience of wearing one as being more important than potentially killing someone.

 

[bhobba]

The rate of Bell's Palsy in the group was not much different from the rate in the general population, and one person who received the placebo also developed Bell's Palsy. Maybe we should outlaw placebo injections?

That's right. Bell's Palsy is more common than many think. The lifetime risk is about 1 in 50-60. There are two main things if you do get it. Go on prednisone immediately, the quicker the better, and hydrate your eye with a lanolin or gel based eye hydrator to prevent exposure keratopathy. I goofed on the second bit and used a product like liquid tears which is not powerful enough. I ended up with a small corneal ulcer, but saw an opthamologist who got me on the correct stuff. So not only go on the prednisone see an opthamologist. Doing that, while quite an unpleasant experience (mine lasted 6 months) the chance of it not going away and/or causing permanent damage is small.

 

[gmax137]

Remember every time you see someone without a mask that he or she is endangering everyone in his or her vicinity.

You wear a mask primarily to protect other people. But many people don't care about others and put their trivial inconvenience of wearing one as being more important than potentially killing someone.

Just anecdotally, I have not seen anyone in public without a mask in months. Northern Nevada, Reno area. Here's the Washoe county (Reno) data.

 

[bhobba]

And some people still refuse to think it is a problem ...

They are mad and can't do simple math. They claim things like for 99.8% of people that get it, its mild and not life threatening ie about the same as a bad flu season. To be fair until I thought it through carefully I thought so as well. Well here is just one fact. 10% of the population has diabeties, and 10% of those with diabeties that get it die. That means a death rate of at least 1% - and that is just one comorbidity (yes I know it is simplistic - those with comorbidities will take greater precautions). Australia where I am is a bit high at about 3% overall - it was a lot lower before it got into nursing homes in Victoria (due to bonking security guards in hotel quarintine - but that's another story) where death rates are very high:
https://hellocaremail.com.au/austra...d-death-nursing-homes-royal-commission-hears/.

Interestingly India does better than we do as far as death rates go (number of deaths are of course much higher). Why may have something to do with the following:
.

This was after the following conference:
https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...I_z2QhV0V2Yj2a_f4zqWLxEF2SH5gtMCm6J78GxNu-sv8

Professor Borody is working on a Double Blind study on its effectiveness in the US so it can be FDA and the Australian equivalent (TGA) approved as a Covid treatment/preventative. He is doing it at his own expense which personally makes me mad - he may be wrong and the DBT will show if he is, but the payoff is so big why the government can't pay for it beats me. Professor Borody has been through it all before with his Peptic Ulcer treatment so he is philosophical about it. Anyway we need to await the results. Personally, and this is just me, if I get Covid I will go on the treatment - but then again here in Aus the chance of any single person getting it is virtually zero - virtually all cases we get now are leakages from overseas quarantine facilities - very very little community transmission.

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

Just anecdotally, I have not seen anyone in public without a mask in months. Northern Nevada, Reno area.

That's pretty amazing. I was out walking in Philly this weekend and maybe 90% were wearing masks. I was out for maybe 2 hours and saw dozens without masks. Some were exercising (running/biking), but not all.

The outside stuff doesn't concern me though, since transmission outdoors is extremely unlikely unless you are huddled together. What concerns me is that in PA (and NJ), businesses and schools started re-opening on 1/4, despite not yet knowing what the holiday spike was going to look like.

 

[bhobba]

That's pretty amazing. I was out walking in Philly this weekend and maybe 90% were wearing masks. I was out for maybe 2 hours and saw dozens without masks. Some were exercising (running/biking), but not all.

The outside stuff doesn't concern me though, since transmission outdoors is extremely unlikely unless you are huddled together. What concerns me is that in PA (and NJ), businesses and schools started re-opening on 1/4, despite not yet knowing what the holiday spike was going to look like.

True.

The thing that surprised me was when Aussi reporters returned from covering the US election they had to go into 14 days quarantine. While in quarantine they were asked what surprised them most about the US. They nearly all said even in places where it was not required was the high rate of mask wearing. It's not required in Taiwan either, and they are generally considered worlds best practice, but most do it voluntarily.

Here in Aus, at least where I am in Brisbane, unless it is compulsory most do not do it. And yes outdoors it is not that big a risk, not only because you are not as close, but Covid is killed by ultraviolet light. Personally I always wear it - but hardly ever go out.

Thanks
Bill

 

[berkeman]

Personally I always wear it

You wearing a surgical mask protects others. If others are not complying, wear a well-fitting N95 mask to protect you and others. If you want tips on how to get a good N95 fit, PM me.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

You wearing a surgical mask protects others. If others are not complying, wear a well-fitting N95 mask to protect you and others. If you want tips on how to get a good N95 fit, PM me.

According to the CDC, even cloth masks provide some protection to the person wearing the mask (though definitely not as much protection as an N95 mask):

Filtration for Personal Protection
Studies demonstrate that cloth mask materials can also reduce wearers’ exposure to infectious droplets through filtration, including filtration of fine droplets and particles less than 10 microns. The relative filtration effectiveness of various masks has varied widely across studies, in large part due to variation in experimental design and particle sizes analyzed. Multiple layers of cloth with higher thread counts have demonstrated superior performance compared to single layers of cloth with lower thread counts, in some cases filtering nearly 50% of fine particles less than 1 micron .14,17-29 Some materials (e.g., polypropylene) may enhance filtering effectiveness by generating triboelectric charge (a form of static electricity) that enhances capture of charged particles18,30 while others (e.g., silk) may help repel moist droplets31 and reduce fabric wetting and thus maintain breathability and comfort.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

 

[berkeman]

According to the CDC, even cloth masks provide some protection to the person wearing the mask (though definitely not as much protection as an N95 mask):

Sure, but I'm not wearing a surgical mask on any of my shifts.

 

[Jarvis323]

Is there any reliable way to track vaccine related injury/death beyond the trials?

It would be nice to get more data in order to gauge which vaccine is safest.

So far I am thinking that Moderna might be the best bet, since I've heard of no serious complications, Fauci chose Moderna, and the company has a clean (albeit non-existent) record.

Pfizer's vaccine has seemed to cause some allergic reactions, and at least one 55 year old doctor died following taking their vaccine from a type of immune system malfunction.

 

[PeroK]

US Deaths from Covid-19 to 10 Jan 2021: 365,597 CDC COVID Data Tracker

There is no sign of the death rate even slowing - it's now over 3,000 deaths per day.

US soldiers killed in Vietnam war: 58,220 US National Archives

This struck me as odd, given I remember being excoriated by you as a US isolationist:

I think you are, as is so often the case in this forum, US isolationist and US centric - the figures are for the US. Even so, I expect they will vary from state to state and among different indigenous groups for example.

There is a whole other world out there for you to discover when you remove your blinkers.

 

[Nudiko]

I still don't have an exact fixed opinion about vaccine in my head. I am currently at my parent's property in Spain here and a lot of locals are not for vaccine.
I was watching a very interesting TV episode about a plague and a Spanish flu disease which we had in the past and at those times there was almost no medicine and proper doctors, equipment and so on. Huge amount of people died and still somehow population raised and we are now at the stage of 6 billions people. So this virus is not the first and not the last virus on our planet for sure. Will be more and will be different, it's just a question how we get used to it.