Is Solar Activity Decreasing and Causing Colder Winters in Britain?

[wolram]

I found this on the net https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity It states that solar activity will fall in the next few decades and Britain will get colder, Do you think this is true?

 

[gleem]

How did they measure or identify solar activity three hundred years ago?

 

[CWatters]

Think they do that by looking at certain radioactive elements in tree rings.

 

[CWatters]

There have been several reports that solar output is falling dating back to at least 2013. As I recall they say there is a small probability we could have a Maunder Minimum this century but it would only cause 0.1C reduction in global temperatures and man made global warming is predicted to be greater than that.

 

[gleem]

How did they measure or identify solar activity three hundred years ago?

Counting sunspots! I forgot about telescopes and the propensity of documenting everything. Although I doubt the meaning was appreciated. Today we have proxies for sunspot activity in Be7 concentration in the atmosphere and Be10 concentration in ice as well as C14. These isotopes produced by the reaction of solar radiation with O and N.

 

[wolram]

There have been several reports that solar output is falling dating back to at least 2013. As I recall they say there is a small probability we could have a Maunder Minimum this century but it would only cause 0.1C reduction in global temperatures and man made global warming is predicted to be greater than that.

The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.

I can not make my mind up, although I have read several articles that say Britain will be colder in the future.

 

[gleem]

With so little data of the correlation of sun spot activity and local regional temperature how sure can we be the the UK will indeed become noticeably colder.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

@wolram can you find a source that meets our guidelines?
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/climate-change-global-warming-policy.757267/

 

[CWatters]

As I understand it El nino and la Nina have a greater impact on UK winters although I guess these might be linked to sun spot activity?

Edit: Google can find several papers showing a correlation with sun spot cycles but it doesn't seem to be a simple/direct correlation.

 

[jim mcnamara]

Okay: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2015/solar-activity
This states that the met office (Britain's version of NOAA) indicated that researchers the published a paper in Nature Communications. To simplify - it was a 'what if?' kind of paper. They showed that IF we had a long weather incident caused by reduced solar output, it would not stop global climate change. We DO NOT have solar output diminution going on now as was the case during the Maunder Minimum of the Little Ice Age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

I'm guessing Wolram wants to know if what we see is that solar "dimming" causing the incredible cold weather in Europe and the US.

What is causing it, according the wunderground web site, is that when the jet stream weakens it wanders both North and South. The southern intrusions cause cold air that is normally near the pole to move South into the Eastern US and Western Europe. It also allows warmer air from the south to move into polar regions causing extremely warm temperature, like last winter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream - see Rossby waves or meanders.

There is NO long term solar minimum going on.

Dendrochronology - tree rings - is a good source for past climate patterns, as are palynological studies of lake varves, and ice cores. Ice cores provide samples of atmospheric CO₂ levels and pollen, tree ring data for the SW US is actually pretty complete for last several thousand years years. See this researcher at NAU describe using both: https://nau.edu/cefns/natsci/seses/faculty/routson/

And prediction of future 'Maunder Minimum' long period changes are not possible.

 

[jim mcnamara]

I think we should consider the subject closed, since the initial question was due to weak newspaper interpretation of a research statement.