SteveElbows
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OK I can say more about the water pumping assumptions used in the analysis we are discussing. I am just looking at reactor 2 for now.
This is their document that describes some stuff about the decay heat numbers they fed into their analysis:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/images/handouts_111130_07-e.pdf
Note that on page 2 it says that they are basing the decay heat on the fuel loading history of the reactors, which is a good start. It then tells us that the time period that water injection & heat removal stopped for reactor 2 was judged to start when the RCIC failed, and end when SRV2open occurred.
Then we see a useful graph on page 3 which shows this in graphic form. By looking at the time scale on this graph and comparing it with the above statement and various information about the timing of events in other analysis documents & government reports to the IAEA, I get the following picture of their assumption:
RCIC was judged to have stopped working at 13:25 on the 14th, and this matches the graph.
The graph looks to end the period at some point between 7pm and 8pm. This fits with official narrative about events that says that reactor pressure was low enough for pumping by 19:03, but problem with fire engine running out out fuel puts the water injection start time at either 19:54 or 19:57. This also matches the government estimate that no water was injected for 6 hours and 29 minutes.
However there are problems with the assumption that this time period was the complete period that heat removal was unavailable:
I believe water level measurement started to drop after 12:00 on the 14th, so its possible that time period under consideration should start sooner than 13:25
TEPCO said that end period is when 2SRVopen, but according to other narratives this didn't happen till 21:20 (unless I or they made a mistake)
And the cabinet report that went into new detail about the disaster and was not afraid to point out mistakes made, mentions a further set of time periods when the measured reactor pressure level was considered too high for reliable water injection:
20:54 to 21:18
00:16 to 01:11
Also I cannot be quite sure due to small graphs, but it is possible that TEPCO's own Case-2 reactor 2 analysis decided to be conservative and not claim any significant quantity of water was injected into reactor 2 vessel until after 06:00 on the 15th. (I need to look at this one more if I can as its much later than other estimates of when water injection was possible)
Anyway I hope this gives some detail as to why I am concerned that Tepco's November analysis of core may not have been suitably cautious when considering the time period that removal of decay heat was unavailable.
And let alone getting the times right for start and end of 'no decay heat removal available' period, there is the question of how much heat was actually being removed by the water once pumping really got going. If their analysis was really as crude as that graph suggests, then surely its not good, how can you only take the decay heat for the time that no pumping was done and ignore all the heat that came after this period ended, as if the pumping was good enough to deal with all the heat from this later period?
Please let me know if you spot any mistakes I have made with this line of thought. Sorry I am not linking to every source in this post but I already made it too long and the details I refer to are from the usual set of documents I talk about (mostly the chapter 4 of report & attachments from government to IAEA and the investigation committee interim report, also chapter 4 I think).
This is their document that describes some stuff about the decay heat numbers they fed into their analysis:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/images/handouts_111130_07-e.pdf
Note that on page 2 it says that they are basing the decay heat on the fuel loading history of the reactors, which is a good start. It then tells us that the time period that water injection & heat removal stopped for reactor 2 was judged to start when the RCIC failed, and end when SRV2open occurred.
Then we see a useful graph on page 3 which shows this in graphic form. By looking at the time scale on this graph and comparing it with the above statement and various information about the timing of events in other analysis documents & government reports to the IAEA, I get the following picture of their assumption:
RCIC was judged to have stopped working at 13:25 on the 14th, and this matches the graph.
The graph looks to end the period at some point between 7pm and 8pm. This fits with official narrative about events that says that reactor pressure was low enough for pumping by 19:03, but problem with fire engine running out out fuel puts the water injection start time at either 19:54 or 19:57. This also matches the government estimate that no water was injected for 6 hours and 29 minutes.
However there are problems with the assumption that this time period was the complete period that heat removal was unavailable:
I believe water level measurement started to drop after 12:00 on the 14th, so its possible that time period under consideration should start sooner than 13:25
TEPCO said that end period is when 2SRVopen, but according to other narratives this didn't happen till 21:20 (unless I or they made a mistake)
And the cabinet report that went into new detail about the disaster and was not afraid to point out mistakes made, mentions a further set of time periods when the measured reactor pressure level was considered too high for reliable water injection:
20:54 to 21:18
00:16 to 01:11
Also I cannot be quite sure due to small graphs, but it is possible that TEPCO's own Case-2 reactor 2 analysis decided to be conservative and not claim any significant quantity of water was injected into reactor 2 vessel until after 06:00 on the 15th. (I need to look at this one more if I can as its much later than other estimates of when water injection was possible)
Anyway I hope this gives some detail as to why I am concerned that Tepco's November analysis of core may not have been suitably cautious when considering the time period that removal of decay heat was unavailable.
And let alone getting the times right for start and end of 'no decay heat removal available' period, there is the question of how much heat was actually being removed by the water once pumping really got going. If their analysis was really as crude as that graph suggests, then surely its not good, how can you only take the decay heat for the time that no pumping was done and ignore all the heat that came after this period ended, as if the pumping was good enough to deal with all the heat from this later period?
Please let me know if you spot any mistakes I have made with this line of thought. Sorry I am not linking to every source in this post but I already made it too long and the details I refer to are from the usual set of documents I talk about (mostly the chapter 4 of report & attachments from government to IAEA and the investigation committee interim report, also chapter 4 I think).