Okay, so I think I finally understand the argument. It's not presented in the clearest way, in my opinion.
So there are two different systems that are being treated as quantum-mechanical systems.
- System ##\overline{F}##, has states ##|\overline{h}\rangle## and ##|\overline{t}\rangle##. For the thought experiment, we consider a few special superpositions:
- ##|\overline{ok}\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}} (|\overline{h}\rangle - |\overline{t}\rangle)##
- ##|\overline{fail}\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}} (|\overline{h}\rangle + |\overline{t}\rangle)##
- ##|init\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{3}} (|\overline{h}\rangle + \sqrt{2} |\overline{t}\rangle)##
- System ##F##, which has states ##|\frac{+1}{2}\rangle## and ##|\frac{-1}{2}\rangle##. For the thought experiment, we consider the alternative basis:
- ##|ok\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}} (|\frac{+1}{2}\rangle - |\frac{-1}{2} \rangle)##
- ##|fail\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}} (|\frac{+1}{2}\rangle + |\frac{-1}{2} \rangle)##
The interaction between systems is such that:
- If System ##\overline{F}## is in state ##|\overline{h}\rangle##, then it puts System ##F## into the state ##|\frac{-1}{2}\rangle##
- If System ##\overline{F}## is in state ##|\overline{t}\rangle##, then it puts System ##F## into the state ##|fail\rangle##
We set up ##\overline{F}## so that it is initially in state ##|init\rangle##.
The system evolves according to the interaction rule above, and the linearity of the evolution equations into the state:
##|final\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{3}} |\overline{h}\rangle |\frac{-1}{2}\rangle + \frac{1}{\sqrt{3}} |\overline{t}\rangle |\frac{+1}{2}\rangle + \frac{1}{\sqrt{3}} |\overline{t}\rangle |\frac{-1}{2}\rangle##
For the sake of the reasoning that follows, I'm going to write this in three different ways:
- ##|final\rangle = \sqrt{\frac{1}{3}} |\overline{h}\rangle |\frac{-1}{2}\rangle + \sqrt{\frac{2}{3}} |\overline{t}\rangle |fail\rangle##
- ##|final\rangle = \sqrt{\frac{2}{3}} |\overline{fail}\rangle |\frac{-1}{2}\rangle + \sqrt{\frac{1}{3}} |\overline{t}\rangle |\frac{+1}{2}\rangle##
- ##|final\rangle = \sqrt{\frac{3}{4}} |\overline{fail}\rangle |fail\rangle - \sqrt{\frac{1}{12}} |\overline{fail}\rangle |ok\rangle - \sqrt{\frac{1}{12}} |\overline{ok}\rangle |fail\rangle - \sqrt{\frac{1}{12}} |\overline{ok}\rangle |ok\rangle##
The twist in this thought experiment is that systems ##\overline{F}## and ##F## contain observers who can also reason using quantum-mechanics. So we have four observers: ##\overline{W}, \overline{F}, W, F## (I hope it's not confusing to use the same name for system ##F## and observer ##F## and the same name for system ##\overline{F}## and observer ##\overline{F}##). They are measuring different things:
- ##F## is measuring whether his system is in state ##|\frac{+1}{2}\rangle## or ##|\frac{-1}{2}\rangle##
- ##\overline{F}## is measuring whether his system is in state ##|\overline{h}\rangle## or ##|\overline{t}\rangle##
- ##W## is measuring whether system ##F## is in state ##|ok\rangle## or ##|fail\rangle##
- ##\overline{W}## is measuring whether system ##\overline{F}## is in state ##|\overline{ok}\rangle## or ##|\overline{fail}\rangle##
Let's write down what each observer can reason about the others, based on their observations:
- If ##F## measures +1/2, then it means that it is impossible that ##\overline{F}## got result ##\overline{h}##. That's because there is no overlap between the final state and ##|\overline{h}\rangle |\frac{+1}{2}\rangle##. So ##F## concludes that if he got +1/2, ##\overline{F}## must have gotten ##\overline{t}##
- If ##\overline{W}## measures ##\overline{ok}##, then it means that is impossible that ##F## got -1/2. That's because there is no overlap between the final state and ##|\overline{ok}\rangle |\frac{-1}{2}\rangle##. So ##\overline{W}## concludes that if he got ##\overline{ok}## then ##F## must have gotten +1/2.
- If ##\overline{F}## gets ##\overline{t}##, then it is impossible that ##W## got ##ok##. That's because there is no overlap between the final state and ##|\overline{t}\rangle |ok\rangle##. So ##\overline{F}## concludes that if he got ##\overline{t}##, then ##W## got ##fail##.
Now, what happens if ##\overline{W}## gets ##\overline{ok}##?
From 2 above, ##\overline{W}## concludes that ##F## got +1/2.
From 1 above, it follows that ##F## concludes that ##\overline{F}## got ##\overline{t}##
From 3 above, it follows that ##\overline{F}## concludes that ##W## got ##fail##
So in this case, ##\overline{W}## is certain that ##F## is certain that ##\overline{F}## is certain that ##W## got ##fail##. So if we adopt the inference rule:
Rule C: If agent A is certain (according to the
Rules of Quantum Mechanics) that agent B is certain (according to the
Rules of Quantum Mechanics) that fact X is true, then agent A should be certain that X is true
then it follows:
If ##\overline{W}## gets ##\overline{ok}##, then he should be certain that ##W## gets ##fail##.
But actually, there is a 1/12 chance that ##\overline{W}## gets ##\overline{ok}## and that ##W## gets ##ok##. This just follows from the fact that the overlap between ##|final\rangle## and ##|\overline{ok}\rangle |ok\rangle## is ##- \frac{1}{\sqrt{12}}## leading to a probability of 1/12.