Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

Spotless Sun these days. Regular and otherwise somewhat expected solar activity in this period since the last posts above. (For some details etc. e.g. cf. davenn's solar-relevant threads already quoted earlier ...). Approaching solar minimum.

I received the following interesting one on my e-mail just a couple of days ago, with title 'The Sun is Dimming as Solar Minimum Approaches':

"Space Weather News for Dec. 15, 2017
http://spaceweather.com
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcom

THE SUN IS DIMMING: Today at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, SpaceX launched a new sensor to the International Space Station named "TSIS-1." Its mission: to measure the dimming of the sun. As the sunspot cycle plunges toward its 11-year minimum, NASA satellites are tracking a slight but significant decline in total solar irradiance (TSI). TSIS-1 will monitor this dimming with better precision than previous satellites as Solar Minimum approaches in the years ahead. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com to learn more about TSIS-1 and natural variations in the sun's electromagnetic output."

The Sun is Dimming! ... Sounds "scary" but ... explained.
Any comments?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here is something interesting (posted today March 5, 2018 on spaceweather.com ):

"THE WORSENING COSMIC RAY SITUATION:Cosmic rays are bad–and they're getting worse. That's the conclusion of a new paperjust published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously predicted.

The story begins four years ago when Schwadron and colleagues first sounded the alarm about cosmic rays. Analyzing data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), they found that cosmic rays in the Earth-Moon system were peaking at levels never before seen in the Space Age. The worsening radiation environment, they pointed out, was a potential peril to astronauts, curtailing how long they could safely travel through space.

This figure from their original 2014 papershows the number of days a 30-year old male astronaut flying in a spaceship with 10 g/cm2of aluminum shielding could go before hitting NASA-mandated radiation limits:

In the 1990s, the astronaut could spend 1000 days in interplanetary space. In 2014 … only 700 days. "That's a huge change," says Schwadron.

Galactic cosmic rays come from outside the solar system. They are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos. Our first line of defense is the sun: The sun's magnetic field and solar wind combine to create a porous 'shield' that fends off cosmic rays attempting to enter the solar system. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during Solar Maximum and weakest during Solar Minimum–hence the 11-year rhythm of the mission duration plot above.

The problem is, as the authors note in their new paper, the shield is weakening: "Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the Space Age. As a result of this remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of cosmic rays."

Back in 2014, Schwadron et al used a leading model of solar activity to predict how bad cosmic rays would become during the next Solar Minimum, now expected in 2019-2020. "Our previous work suggested a ~ 20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next," says Schwadron. "In fact, we now see that actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years exceed the predictions by ~ 10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening even more rapidly than we expected." In this plot bright green data points show the recent excess:

The data Schwadron et al have been analyzing come from CRaTER on the LRO spacecraft in orbit around the Moon, which is point-blank exposed to any cosmic radiation the sun allows to pass. Here on Earth, we have two additional lines of defense: the magnetic field and atmosphere of our planet. Both mitigate cosmic rays.

But even on Earth the increase is being felt. Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have been launching space weather balloons to the stratosphere almost weekly since 2015. Sensors onboard those balloons show a 13% increase in radiation (X-rays and gamma-rays) penetrating our planet's atmosphere:

X-rays and gamma-rays detected by these balloons are "secondary cosmic rays," produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth's upper atmosphere. They trace radiation percolating down toward our planet's surface. The energy range of the sensors, 10 keV to 20 MeV, is similar to that of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

How does this affect us? Cosmic rays penetrate commercial airlines, dosing passengers and flight crews so much that pilots are classified by the International Commission on Radiological Protection as occupational radiation workers. Some research shows that cosmic rays can seed clouds and trigger lightning, potentially altering weather and climate. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias in the general population.

Cosmic rays will intensify even more in the years ahead as the sun plunges toward what may be the deepest Solar Minimum in more than a century. Stay tuned for updates."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today (this morning, July 9, 2018) [, and ~yesterday July 8,] current stretch spotless days: 13.
The Sun has been relatively quiet, as solar minimum gets even closer ...

 

[davenn]

Today (this morning, July 9, 2018) [, and ~yesterday July 8,] current stretch spotless days: 13.
The Sun has been relatively quiet, as solar minimum gets even closer ...

now home …. the last easily viewable spots were on the 25 June. A couple of spots were almost still visible from the active region on the 26th June, but had diminished greatly. There were a few other isolated spots visible.

25th

26th

The spotted active region on the 25th is the same region as the as the right hand part of the area labelled "couple of spots"
Those other quite small spots across the disk that I have labelled are confirmed when I use other images of the sun to see active regions,
eg, magnetograms and extreme UV imagesDave

 

[davenn]

a really good article is here

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

[Stavros Kiri]

the last easily viewable spots were on the 25 June. A couple of spots were almost still visible from the active region on the 26th June, but had diminished greatly. There were a few other isolated spots visible.

Could it be a ±1day error in taking into account/(accounting for) the near limb/ complete disappearance era? I am not sure.

The spotted active region on the 25th is the same region as the as the right hand part of the area labelled "couple of spots"
Those other quite small spots across the disk that I have labelled are confirmed when I use other images of the sun to see active regions,
eg, magnetograms and extreme UV images

Very interesting. At some point perhaps I would like to learn more about those techniques.
The article is good too!

Thanks Dave

 

[davenn]

This new active region that has rotated into view over the last couple of days remains spotless
even tho it looks quite significant in the magnetogram

Visible light

Magnetogram

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

...
...

Today March 22, 2019

Huge AR2736 ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sep. 25, 2019
https://spaceweather.com
A SUMMER WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun is undergoing a remarkable period of spotlessness. During northern summer 2019, the face of the sun was blank (no sunspots) more than 89% of the time. This marks it as one of the deepest Solar Minima in a century. Interestingly, the summer of 2019 also brought a sign that Solar Minimum is coming to an end. Visit Spaceweather.com for the full story.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

TWO SOLAR CYCLES ARE ACTIVE AT ONCE: You don't see this every day. There are two sunspots on the sun today, and each one comes from a different 11-year solar cycle. Two solar cycles are active at once. What does it mean? Check out today's edition of Spaceweather.com.

 

[davenn]

TWO SOLAR CYCLES ARE ACTIVE AT ONCE: You don't see this every day. There are two sunspots on the sun today, and each one comes from a different 11-year solar cycle. Two solar cycles are active at once. What does it mean? Check out today's edition of Spaceweather.com.

man alive ! I would call bullsh$T on that one. I really wonder about the credibility of some of these dopes …. wouldn't be the first time I and others have had to call them out.

1) Neither group is new cycle as they are both equatorial latitudes.
New cycle groups will be high latitude as seen with previous active regions

2) Polarity is not a determining factor in this case BECAUSE spot groups will have opposite polarities
on either side of the equator

migration of spots towards the equator as a cycle progresses

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

man alive ! I would call bullsh$T on that one. I really wonder about the credibility of some of these dopes …. wouldn't be the first time I and others have had to call them out.

1) Neither group is new cycle as they are both equatorial latitudes.
New cycle groups will be high latitude as seen with previous active regions

2) Polarity is not a determining factor in this case BECAUSE spot groups will have opposite polarities
on either side of the equator

Hi Dave! About the polarity: but these are both on the southern hemisphere ...

 

[davenn]

Hi Dave! About the polarity: but these are both on the southern hemisphere …

mite look that way, but I don't think so, the equator isn't straight across the page

I may be wrong, but I see it as a pretty poor explanation on their partmy other reason still stands ... they are both low latitude

 

[Stavros Kiri]

mite look that way, but I don't think so, the equator isn't straight across the page

I may be wrong, but I see it as a pretty poor explanation on their partmy other reason still stands ... they are both low latitude

(Sorry for the delay in replying - [technical and practical reasons])
Dave, I see your point. I find their explanation pretty poor myself. However I don't think we can discredit it that easily witout further data. There was an article later on explaining it, but I couldn't find it at the moment.
Also it could be a 'statistical fluctuation' ...

+ see next

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The new cycle has clearly started! ... " THE SUN IS FLARING AGAIN: Today [May 29, 2020], the sun produced its strongest solar flare in nearly 3 years. The M-class explosion came from a new-cycle sunspot hidden just behind the sun's northeastern limb. This weekend, the blast site will turn to face Earth, so future flares, if they continue, could become geoeffective. Visit Spaceweather.com for updates. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

That's according to Spaceweather.com . However, NASA may have a different view, somehow. Thus Dave may be right (we'll see). Check this out:

"
"That means solar minimum is an instance only recognizable in hindsight: It could take six to 12 months after the fact to confirm when minimum has actually passed."

So, stay tuned! More observations should tell us if we're already in Solar Cycle 25."
(https://www.livescience.com/sun-unleashes-biggest-solar-flare-since-2017.html)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A new sunspot provisionally numbered AR2770 emerges over the sun's northeastern limb on Aug. 3, 2020. Its magnetic polarity marks it as a member of Solar Cycle 25:

"There's no longer any doubt. New Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. The latest sign came today [Aug. 3, 2020] with the emergence of a new sunspot group, inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):

In this false-color image of the sun, intense magnetic fields are denoted by yellow (-) and green (+).​

Provisionally numbered AR2770, the sunspot has two dark cores (each about the size of Mars) and is crackling with minor B-class solar flares. Its potential for even stronger flares will become clear in the days ahead as the sunspot turns toward Earth, more fully revealing its magnetic complexity.

Active regions from Solar Cycle 25 are now strewn across the sun's northern hemisphere. These are places where magnetic fields are intensifying, creating islands of magnetism on the sun's surface.

The -/+ magnetic polarities of these regions mark them as members of Solar Cycle 25, perHale's Law."
​

(https://spaceweather.us11.list-mana...4d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=d7d36df949&e=8bebdd3f2e)

However, this doesn't mean that solar minimum is over yet. Things will sort out in the following years to come.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

However, as of September 5, 2020, solar minimum conditions are STILL in effect (cf. previous posts to reconcile), as there were no spots for the last 15 days or so, etc. ...
(https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=09&year=2020)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Major sunspot groups recently verify for a fact that solar cycle 25 is of course officially here to stay etc.
A very recent one [AR2781, one of the biggest in years] appeared right on US election day (Nov. 3, 2020).

Here is the picture of the sun today (Sat. 14 Nov., 2020) :



Group 2781 is still visible.

Also, here is AR2781 when it appeared on election day:

[In addition, here is/was a preliminary report (from Spaceweather.com) for that spot group: "ELECTION DAY SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is emerging on the sun today. Hours ago it produced a C-class solar flare and a minor radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This sunspot, if it holds itself together, will face Earth for the next two weeks as it rotates across the face of the sun, potentially setting the stage for a sustained stretch of solar activity. Visit Spaceweather.com for updates."] In fact it did produce significant solar activity, and still is. There is also a newer active region as we speak (2782), but not significally visible. X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B1 1624 UT Nov14 24-hr: B7 2359 UT Nov13 Updated: Today (Nov14) at: 2220 UT (Sunspot region 2782, on Wed. 11 Nov., 2020, produced [on its appearence that day] a long duration C2.6 solar flare which peaked at 19:11 UTC.) Daily Sun: 14 Nov 20 These decaying sunspots pose a threat for minor B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Group 2781 is still visible today (Sunday Nov. 15)
Daily Sun: 15 Nov 20

Departing sunspot AR2781 ... (is stable and quiet)

Here's 3 important links on the history of the latest two AR s (2781, 2782) discussed on the previous post:
2781 (Nov. 3):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=03&month=11&year=2020&view=view

2781, 2782(1st limb appearence) (Nov. 11):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=11&month=11&year=2020&view=view

2781, 2782(C-class flare, Nov11) (Nov. 12):
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=12&month=11&year=2020&view=view

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Daily Sun: 26 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

 

[davenn]

This active region (AR2786) looks awesome when looking at the magnetic field ...

cropped
Image credit ... Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), part of the Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"MAGNIFICENT SUNSPOT: There's only one way to describe giant sunspot AR2786. "C'est magnifique," says amateur astronomer François Rouvière, who sends this picture from Cannes, France:

To photograph the sunspot, Rouvière used an H-alpha filter tuned to the red glow of solar hydrogen. It shows not only the sunspot's primary dark core, but also the hot atmosphere just above. Dark filaments winding around AR2786 trace a complex magnetic field that harbors energy for M-classsolar flares.

"There are also two light bridges," points out Rouvière. He's referring tothese canyons of light cutting across AR2786's dark core. The nature of light bridges is not fully understood. Some research suggests that magnetic fields at the base of a light bridge are busy cross-crossing and reconnecting--the same explosive process that sparks solar flares. If so, AR2786 might be preparing to erupt. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text."
(From: spaceweather.com)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

See also:
1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/11/22/steves-cannonballs-little-green-spheres-of-light/
2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=11&year=2020
3) (original paper) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020AV000183
4) (archive on Spaceweather.com on the day that I posted [27 Nov., 2020], (for "timelessness" of the original link etc.))
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=27&month=11&year=2020

 

[Stavros Kiri]

​ MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Today, Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than 3 years. The M4.4-category eruption produced a shortwave radio blackout over some parts of Earth and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). Remarkably, the flare was even bigger than it seemed. The blast site is located just behind the sun's southeastern limb, so the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun. ​ ​ Above: This "D Region Absorption" map from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center shows where shortwave radio propagation was affected by today's solar flare. Daily Sun: 29 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

 

[davenn]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

Wow!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sat. May 15, 2021

THE GREAT GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF MAY 1921: 100 years ago today, the biggest solar storm of the 20th century struck Earth. Buildings caught fire, telephone lines burned out, and auroras were sighted from ships at sea crossing the equator.

 

[davenn]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

They were well seen and photo'ed in southern New Zealand and Australia

 

[davenn]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

 

[Stavros Kiri]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

View attachment 283104

View attachment 283105

Thanks Dave! ... Amazing&Great! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR FLARE FRENZY on May 22: (Report on Mon May 24, 2021) the day before yesterday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824. One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic. NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/22may21/frenzy.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New terminology? "The Termination Event" ... (for the Sun)

Is it a threat? How soon?

Take a look:

https://spaceweather.us11.list-mana...4d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=3fd59cef22&e=8bebdd3f2e

(Published June 11, 2021)

 

[davenn]

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING:
A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth.
ETA: June 15-16. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere and could spark high-latitude auroras when it arrives.

 

[sophiecentaur]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

 

[davenn]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)

 

[sophiecentaur]

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)

View attachment 284510

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

 

[Ibix]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

 

[davenn]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

Just remember, that this was just a small event. A much stronger event ( much larger CME, equatorial coronal hole) and the auroral oval will come much further south so don't give up hope

 

[sophiecentaur]

so don't give up hope

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

There are many types of "boom boom". Let's "hope for the best but be prepared for the worst ..."

[E.g. what is statistically the expectation for a mini-nova? What are the chances and ~when? ... etc. ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

News for June 30 & July 1, 2021:
(This was not in the forecast)

SHOCKWAVE SPARKS AURORAS: A minor interplanetary shock wave jolted Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of June 30th, sparking rare midsummer auroras over Canada and some northern-tier US states. It might have been the edge of a CME originally expected to arrive on July 1st. If not, another jolt could occur in the next 24 hours.

(See e.g. @ Spaceweather.com. for details etc.)
[Relevant archive links: 1) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=30&month=06&year=2021 , 2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=01&month=07&year=2021 ]

[Additional impacts are possible on July 1st and July 3rd ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Also [currently] increasing chance of flares due to AR2835 (which has grown really big). That (if it happens [perhaps any minute now, July 1st and forth]) it may cause radio blackouts etc. ...

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/30jun21/sunspot_evolution_strip.gif

"Now twice as wide as Earth, its primary dark core is inset in this magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

As the sunspot has grown, its magnetic structure has become more complex. Note the mixing of north (+) and south (-) magnetic fields in this area. When magnetic fields of opposite polarity bump together, they can explode. The process is known as magnetic reconnection, and it is responsible for solar flares.

Any flares today will be geoeffective as the sunspot is directly faciing Earth."https://spaceweather.com/images2021/01jul21/hmi1898.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0212 UT Jul01
24-hr: C3 1815 UT Jun30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0715 UT

Daily Sun: 01 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2835 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

More B-class solar flares only, so far ... (B6 & B3, July 1 & 2, so far ...)

[+ See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html ]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

2 new relative points of interest regarding the recent activity above etc.:
1) A minor CME is expected to hit Earth tomorrow July 3rd (it left the Sun on June 29 ...). The impact is expected minor as well, possibly causing perhaps high latitude auroras if not geomagnetic storms ...
2) The Huge Sunspot AR2835 is even visible with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary) at this point, just by using proper filter protection for the eyes! of course (e.g. eclipse solar glasses or eqivalent ...) ... ... . Don't miss it!
[I just saw it a couple of hours ago ... - it also serves as a good eye test too! ...]