8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[Ivan Seeking]

I've never seen a waterfall of cars before. Wow. Amazing and horrific!

The raging black torrent rushing across the countryside is the stuff of nightmares.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Japan warns of small radiation leak from quake-hit plant

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/japan-quake-reactor-idUSL3E7EB2GO20110311

 

[nismaratwork]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/japan-quake-reactor-idUSL3E7EB2GO20110311

Oh fabulous... if Mothra arrives, I'll be surprised, but not shocked.

 

[Astronuc]

P.S. Being a complete ignorant amateur – isn’t there very many large quakes "Near the east coast of Honshu, Japan" BEFORE the "BIG ONE"...?

There have been mag 6's and 7's (with aftershocks in the 4-5 range) near the coast before, but an 8.9 is rare, but really devastating.

Magnitude 8 and Greater Earthquakes Since 1900
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php

Mostly the big ones have been in the low 8's, but there are several in the 8.8 and greater range. Chile had the mag 8.8 last year.

The big one (mag 9.1) off Sumatra (west of Aceh) 2004-12-26 (lat 3.295 long 95.982) killed 227,898 mostly due to tsunamis.

Before that Chile, Alaska and Russia have had some 9's.

 

[nismaratwork]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale

8.9 336 megatons 1.41 EJ Sendai earthquake (Japan), 2011

That... is a LOT of energy.

 

[Astronuc]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/japan-quake-reactor-idUSL3E7EB2GO20110311

The plant personnel apparently plan to release some pressure from the primary system of FK-1, unit 1, and they have to prepare the public for that. The steam would contain noble gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, which would be vent up a stack and diluted in the wind, which will carry it eastward out to sea (Pacific Ocean). Ostensibly, any iodine will be captured on filters, which are designed to capture iodine, which is then allowed to decay.

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.


Note the reds lines in the plots of the earthquakes. We could be seeing some more significant seismic activity south of Tokyo.

 

[nismaratwork]

The plant personnel apparently plan to release some pressure from the primary system, and they have to prepare the public for that. The steam would contain noble gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, which would be vent up a stack and diluted in the wind, which will carry it eastward out to sea (Pacific Ocean). Ostensibly, any iodine will be captured on filters, which are designed to capture iodine, which is then allowed to decay.

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.

If this had been a pebble-bed reactor, would this have been an issue? Is there a reactor that would be able to avoid this kind of event?

 

[Astronuc]

If this had been a pebble-bed reactor, would this have been an issue? Is there a reactor that would be able to avoid this kind of event?

I have heard claims that a gas-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor is immune to such a problem. In theory it is so, but I haven't done the calcs to demonstrate it. Nor do I necessarily trust such claims.

 

[Newai]

We have military in that region. How long before they can offer help? Meaning, do they need authorization from us (U.S)?

 

[nismaratwork]

I have heard claims that a gas-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor is immune to such a problem. In theory it is so, but I haven't done the calcs to demonstrate it. Nor do I necessarily trust such claims.

Thanks for the straightforward answer... I wonder how to test that kind of claim in the face of a disaster like this? (the quake, not the plant)

@Newai: We already have the necessary authorizations to render aid, but it's going to be difficult to get people on the ground. With ongoing activity, fires, flooding... it's tough to send people into such region. In some time however, they'll coordinate with the Japanese Civil Defense and provide assistance.

Frankly, I think that Japan is quite prepared for earthquakes in general, but you cannot prepare for something this extreme... many of the people who will die, probably died in the early stages of this disaster.

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh wow... apparently an oil refinery in Hokkaido, and Miyagi is on fire... and more widespread fires. This is looking worse as the sun rises.

 

[Borek]

Talking about preparation... Death toll will be high, but imagine something like that hitting other, less prepared place.

 

[nismaratwork]

Talking about preparation... Death toll will be high, but imagine something like that hitting other, less prepared place.

Who needs to imagine... it happened in Indonesa. =(

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Really bad news for already struggling Japanese economy.

 

[nismaratwork]

Really bad news for already struggling Japanese economy.

Hmmm... maybe not as much as you'd think in the short term. Remember, construction is a big deal in Japan, and this is going to fuel a boom in that for a while.

In the long run... ugh.

I just feel horror at the notion of people being violently drowned, in terror, even trying to run.

 

[nismaratwork]

Wow... the images coming out of Japan are horrific, and absolutely heartbreaking.

Oh, and the US Military and JDF are already beginning to mobilize.

edit: NHK is reporting that there will be venting of the plant as Astronuc described, and by all reports the radiation involved should be minimal... I hope. Certainly it beats the alternative.

 

[CAC1001]

The plant personnel apparently plan to release some pressure from the primary system of FK-1, unit 1, and they have to prepare the public for that. The steam would contain noble gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, which would be vent up a stack and diluted in the wind, which will carry it eastward out to sea (Pacific Ocean). Ostensibly, any iodine will be captured on filters, which are designed to capture iodine, which is then allowed to decay.

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.


Note the reds lines in the plots of the earthquakes. We could be seeing some more significant seismic activity south of Tokyo.

On this nuclear plant, does this put a black eye on the "nuclear power is safe" claims? Or would this be like a modern Three Mile Island where the critics of nuclear power would blow it out of proportion...?

 

[dlgoff]

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.

Man! I'm sure hoping this will not kill "efforts" to build reactors here.

 

[Astronuc]

We have military in that region. How long before they can offer help? Meaning, do they need authorization from us (U.S)?

Obama talked with the PM this morning. One carrier is already in Japan, and another is on the way. Immediate assistance will have to flow in by C-5's.

The NRC and supporting agencies are communicating with Japanese authorities and TEPCO, and they will try to get alternate power supplies to the plant site.

On this nuclear plant, does this put a black eye on the "nuclear power is safe" claims? Or would this be like a modern Three Mile Island where the critics of nuclear power would blow it out of proportion...?

I certainly expect some anti-nukes and the media to blow things out of proportion and declare worst case scenario, a la core meltdown, which I don't see as necessarily occurring. At the moment the fuel is at risk, but the plant is designed to cope with it. One does not want to see the fuel damaged from both an economic as well as safety risk.

At the moment TEPCO is stating:

At this moment, we have decided to implement measures to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessel for those units that cannot confirm certain
level of water injection by the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System, in order to fully secure safety.

It's not clear from the statement if only one (Unit 1) or all three units (1, 2 and 3) which were operating are affected.

It's clear that plant management did a poor job of ensuring the operation of the plant in such an event, and this is troublesome because they should have learned from the Niigata earthquake that heavily damaged the Kashiwazaki plant in 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chūetsu_offshore_earthquake

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiw...r_Plant#2007_Ch.C5.ABetsu_offshore_earthquake


Meanwhile - I've heard reports of one person being swept out to sea in California, 4 people rescued after being washed away in Oregon, and damage to several ports along the US Pacific Coast.

 

[CAC1001]

Thanks for the info; one other question I have - I was reading over at another forum, some guy said that the media's claim that coolant is being flown in by airplanes isn't true because those plants use something like 6,000 gallons a minute and it thus would be like squeezing out your washcloth over a car radiator, is this true? (one would expect the media to get things really wrong on something like this I would think).

 

[Astronuc]

Man! I'm sure hoping this will not kill "efforts" to build reactors here.

That's why we try not to build plants too close faults and seismically active areas. We also do extensive seismic analysis on the reactors, the fuel, and the whole containment system.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Anyone who is an American Airlines FF member might take advantage of this deal

https://american.redcross.org/site/...nes-pub&JServSessionIdr004=5mlwwqizd4.app195a

 

[CAC1001]

If a meltdown at the nuclear plant was to occur, would this be a disaster for the reason, or would the radiation be sealed within a shell?

 

[Astronuc]

If a meltdown at the nuclear plant was to occur, would this be a disaster for the reason, or would the radiation be sealed within a shell?

I would not expect the core to 'melt', but it could be severely damaged. I would expect the pressure vessel to contain the damage core. The pressure vessel at TMI-2 contained the core, but it was damaged. It now sits shutdown, and the water in containment is just sitting there. Unit 2 is more or less mothballed.

Ideally, they will cool the reactor. At the moment, we can only wait and see what occurs and what actions the government will take with respect to future operation.

Update: Here is another article on Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-quake-causes-apf-1121920057.html

Authorities said radiation levels had jumped 1,000 times normal inside Unit 1 and were measured at eight times normal outside the plant. They expanded an earlier evacuation zone more than threefold, from 3 to 10 kilometers (2 miles to 6.2 miles). Some 3,000 people had been urged to leave their homes in the first announcement.
. . . .

That's not necessarily significant, but it could indicate that some fuel is breached, or there is a lot of crud (activated corrosion products) that got released in the coolant. Crud would normally be cleaned up on filters. The problem with the article is that it does not indicate what activity, gas or coolant, or the radioisotope, so we don't know the basis of the statement or how accurate it is.


Meanwhile -

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/business-news-briefs/2011/03/mid-day_update_youtube_web_bri.html

I'm constantly amazed at the people who simply drive into the flood water. They do not seem to know a route inland.

 

[nismaratwork]

I would not expect the core to 'melt', but it could be severely damaged. I would expect the pressure vessel to contain the damage core. The pressure vessel at TMI-2 contained the core, but it was damaged. It now sits shutdown, and the water in containment is just sitting there. Unit 2 is more or less mothballed.

Ideally, they will cool the reactor. At the moment, we can only wait and see what occurs and what actions the government will take with respect to future operation.

Update: Here is another article on Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-quake-causes-apf-1121920057.html

That's not necessarily significant, but it could indicate that some fuel is breached, or there is a lot of crud (activated corrosion products) that got released in the coolant. Crud would normally be cleaned up on filters. The problem with the article is that it does not indicate what activity, gas or coolant, or the radioisotope, so we don't know the basis of the statement or how accurate it is.


Meanwhile -

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/business-news-briefs/2011/03/mid-day_update_youtube_web_bri.html

I'm constantly amazed at the people who simply drive into the flood water. They do not seem to know a route inland.

A lot of good info... and I appreciate it a LOT. I am cursed with some relatives who are fission-phobic, and the only antitidote is information, even if it's not always pretty. I think I'd add...

...This is 40 year old plant, that suffered the effects of the most powerful quake in Japan in recorded history... even if it never works again, if it can be safely dismantled that should be rather amazing to people. Just my opinion obviously, but it strikes me as kind of amazing that this sucker is still in one piece.

edit: People mix 'pills' with alcohol... everything else is vaguely comprehensible in terms of rashness, idiocy, or panic. Seriously... you'd think Karen Ann Quinlan would have driven the point home, but noooOOoooo.

 

[Astronuc]

I posted in a related thread in the Nuclear Engineering forum.

A Reuters article (and others) attributes a statement to METI that the pressure in Unit 1 (vessel?) has reached 2.1 times design. That's not good, but then I can't substantiate that with a reliable source. I don't know if it refers to the primary system or containment; the design pressure are very different.

A second unit (unit 2?) is also having pressure control problems. Again it's unsubstantiated with an official source.

Also, unit 1 is the oldest of the 6 units at the site; first criticality March 1971. Unit 2 is about three years younger (first criticality July 1974). Fourty years is the original design life of the unit, although lifetimes of units of that vintage are being extended to 60 years.

Plant means the whole site. Some plants may have a single unit, but many, perhaps most have two or more units (reactors, primary system and balance of plant (BOP)).

 

[nismaratwork]

I'm really impressed by what's being discussed on CNN right now... Cham Davis is being pretty clear about the best-worst case scenario, and talking about the fear aspect.

In addition he seems certain (no guarantee) that before power died they did manage to fully insert control rods... so the SCRAM did work, meltdown is not a happening thing. I don't know how others will cover this, or use it... venting into the atmosphere is going to scare people, but so far there is real moderation in tone at least in the presence of authority.

On the other hand, it seems clear that the Japanese people are going to be afraid and angry no matter how this plays out... and not just the Japanese. Everyone just goes to Chernobyl (mentally I hope) and 3 Mile Island... as though they were remotely on the same order of magnitude.

I'm concerned that when the experts are no longer being interviewed, the sound-bites will become means to scare people.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

There have been mag 6's and 7's (with aftershocks in the 4-5 range) near the coast before, but an 8.9 is rare, but really devastating.

Thanks Astronuc, I was thinking about possible 'pre-warnings'... on the site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php" it starts already on 2011/03/09 02:45:20 with a M7.2, and then there are twenty M5.0+ quakes near Honshu... before the M8.9...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Surreal footage, just look at the wave in the beginning of the first video – the ship is completely disappearing in the wave trough! That wave must have been > 8 meters!

If "only" 300 people were killed in Sendai – it’s a miracle! The distance from http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&sou...16,140.818634&spn=0.334903,0.727158&t=k&z=11", and they say on CNN that they had approx 10 min (some say 30?) to evacuate. 1+ million people evacuated in less than 30 min must be a MIRACLE!

(zoom in on the map, there’s a lot of buildings near the shore...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqhKzMNTdZ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YPOK_3r8Dc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBwVcrzGiTc

 

[caffenta]

Thanks Astronuc, I was thinking about possible 'pre-warnings'... on the site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php" it starts already on 2011/03/09 02:45:20 with a M7.2, and then there are twenty M5.0+ quakes near Honshu... before the M8.9...

There are always quakes in Japan. Continually. They never stop. It's nothing unusual.

This is 1924-2008 (from http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/earthquake.html" )

Japan has an early warning system, but it's only a few seconds. They have a monitoring system in place to try to predict the big Tokai one, but nobody knows if it actually works.