8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[Astronuc]

Japan initiates emergency protocol after earthquake
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?sectioncode=132&storyCode=2059127

Still lacking key details.


Regarding the tsunami from the mag 8.9 earthquake, using the following information

Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
38° 15' 17" N
140° 53' 5" E

Sendai, Japan
Region: Miyagi
Country: Japan
Latitude: 38.2547222
Longitude: 140.8847222


Mag 8.9 earthquake
Latitude: 38.322 N
Longitude: 142.369 E

and assuming that 1 degree longitude is ~95 km, then the quake was about 140 km from Sendai City center which is about 10 miles (16 km) inland from the coast.

At 500 mph (800 kmph), the tsunami would hit the coast in about 10 minutes. Not a lot to time to react if one was not listening to the radio. On the other hand, presumably folks felt that quake and they should have immediately headed inland - and not toward the coast or parallel with the coast. Just get to higher ground - of at least 10 m above sea level.

One can get a more accurate distance with a calculator.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml


BTW - there was a mag 6.8 this morning, 2011/03/12 01:47:16, lat: 37.588N, long: 142.682E at depth of 24.8 km OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.

 

[OmCheeto]

We're going to have give our mister Elliot some hell for not properly tying up his submarine:

In Guam, the tsunami snapped mooring lines to two attack submarines, Houston and City of Corpus Christi. Tug boats immediately responded. “Both subs are safe and under the control of the tug boats,” Joint Region Marianas posted on its Facebook page. No injuries have been reported.

Good to hear that our subs are now under the control of tug boats.

 

[lisab]

We're going to have give our mister Elliot some hell for not properly tying up his submarine:



Good to hear that our subs are now under the control of tug boats.

Oh dear. Don't they teach sailors the fine art of knot-tying anymore?

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh dear. Don't they teach sailors the fine art of knot-tying anymore?

Nah, just boy scouts, and look at the state we're in now!

 

[caffenta]

At 500 mph, the tsunami would hit the coast in about 15 minutes. Not a lot to time to react if one was not listening to the radio. On the other hand, presumably folks felt that quake and they should have immediately headed inland - and not toward the coast or parallel with the coast. Just get to higher ground - of at least 10 m above sea level.

Warnings were issued immediately, not just by radio. But the problem is that the region is flat and there are not that many roads towards higher ground, and not everybody is in a car, or even has one (Sendai is not LA). The region is a real pain to navigate, even in a non-emergency situation. http://maps.google.co.jp/?ie=UTF8&l...nt=3,0x5f8a2aee30cd55d3:0xba2579e0b846b1ee,0"

 

[nismaratwork]

Warnings were issued immediately, not just by radio. But the problem is that the region is flat and there are not that many roads towards higher ground, and not everybody is in a car, or even has one (Sendai is not LA). The region is a real pain to navigate, even in a non-emergency situation. http://maps.google.co.jp/?ie=UTF8&l...nt=3,0x5f8a2aee30cd55d3:0xba2579e0b846b1ee,0"

Yeah, unfortunately a lot of the flood waters are sticking around because of the terrain.

 

[Astronuc]

Unfortunately, they don't appear to have effective evacuation roots in that coastal area.

As for tsunami effects across the Pacific.

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/22/messagelhvpd9-22.htm

Crescent City, Ca has about 8 feet of water.

 

[nismaratwork]

Unfortunately, they don't appear to have effective evacuation roots in that coastal area.

As for tsunami effects across the Pacific.

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/22/messagelhvpd9-22.htm

Crescent City, Ca has about 8 feet of water.

It's a damned shame, but there's only so much you can do with 15 minutes and a LOT of flat farmland and vallys.

8 feet in CC, CA?! Jesus.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Surreal footage, just look at the wave in the beginning of the first video – the ship is completely disappearing in the wave trough! That wave must have been > 8 meters!

Heck, I've Boogie Boarded a wave that big. It is more the length than the height of the wave that makes it so devestating.

The black wall of water scouring the countryside did appear to be about twenty-five or thirty feet in height. Simply unbelievable!

 

[caffenta]

Heck, I've Boogie Boarded a wave that big. It is more the length than the height of the wave that makes it so devestating.

Tell me that again when you're faced with an 8-meter wall of water. Here are actual http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/observation.html" , not just media-generated anectodes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Tell me that again when you're faced with an 8-meter wall of water.

What I said was true. I have faced an 8-meter wall of water on a Boogie Board [the ride of a lifetime too!]. And for hardcore surfers, that's just childsplay. At North Shore in Hawaii, everyone starts going home when the waves get that small!


That is not to take away from the devestating effects of the tsunami. As I said, it is the wavelength more than the amplitude that makes it so deadly.

 

[Borek]

I wonder... What was the tide level on US coast when the wave came? And what is the tide amplitude on the US coast?

What I am thinking about is that if the tsunami wave came during low water and wave height was comparable with the tide, it could be dangerous for those that ventured to the beach (fast changes) but relatively safe for infrastructure (water don't getting higher than it does on a daily basis). On the other hand combined wave would be really high, but as there are no reports about disastrous effects I guess it wasn't the case.

 

[hypatia]

And now a explosion at the damaged plant..this just keeps getting worse.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Too small:

Massive Explosion at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVwDnDo6BaM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIZUTKNBWRU

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

Japan's nuclear agency said on Saturday that radioactive caesium and iodine had been detected near the number one reactor of the Fukushima 1 plant.

The agency said this may indicate that containers of uranium fuel inside the reactor may have begun melting.

 

[Astronuc]

There are conflicting reports:

Explosion did not occur at reactor: Japan spokesman
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110312p2g00m0dm073000c.html

vs

Explosion Destroys Walls of Japanese Nuclear Reactor Building, NHK Reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/explosion-destroys-walls-of-japan-reactor-building-nhk-reports.html


http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.

 

[Lacy33]

Hi Astro,
So we are wondering here really, is it possible that it will be a Chernobyl type situation or as my husband thinks and hopes they build these plants differently now.
I think I understand him to say that. He worked on building one.
What I am asking specifically is it possible that we could have an event that big again?
And are any professionals going there to help keep Japan it safe?
And Astro why are you not over there now helping? Thank you

 

[nismaratwork]

There are conflicting reports:

Explosion did not occur at reactor: Japan spokesman
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110312p2g00m0dm073000c.html

vs

Explosion Destroys Walls of Japanese Nuclear Reactor Building, NHK Reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/explosion-destroys-walls-of-japan-reactor-building-nhk-reports.html


http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.

It really does sound like it was a hydrogen explosion... the images show smoke rising, but mostly dirty steam. I'm... unclear that this is anything as serious as an exposed or melting core. Chan Dallas is reporting, "620 mREMS/Hour", which I certainly don't want a part of, but it's hardly going to make you... poop... the bed.

I'm buying 'hydrogen blast' without the fuel becoming exposed.

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh, and 9,500 missing in Miyagi prefecture alone (CNN)

 

[Astronuc]

Hi Astro,
So we are wondering here really, is it possible that it will be a Chernobyl type situation or as my husband thinks and hopes they build these plants differently now.
I think I understand him to say that. He worked on building one.
What I am asking specifically is it possible that we could have an event that big again?
And are any professionals going there to help keep Japan it safe?
And Astro why are you not over there now helping? Thank you

I don't see this being the same as Chernobyl, but there is a concern that if the cladding oxidizes/corrodes that fisson products would be released into the coolant. Fissions gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, and volatiles like I, could be released into the atmosphere, but one would expect, the Iodine would be trapped in filters. Other soluble nuclides would be in the cooling water.

Japan has a large population of professionals, and the USNRC and other organizations are ready to step in and provide support and assistance.

There will be repercussions due to the poor performance, really failure, of the safety systems. I imagine that unit 1 at FK Daiichi will be permanently shutdown, especially if they use seawater directly in the core.

The industry will do yet another reassessment of the preparedness for such an event.

I would certainly go if asked. I would like to be there in person to see what is actually going on, but I'd be in the way. They need personnel with direct plant operating experience with that particular plant design.

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't see this being the same as Chernobyl, but there is a concern that if the cladding oxidizes/corrodes that fisson products would be released into the coolant. Fissions gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, and volatiles like I, could be released into the atmosphere, but one would expect, the Iodine would be trapped in filters. Other soluble nuclides would be in the cooling water.

Japan has a large population of professionals, and the USNRC and other organizations are ready to step in and provide support and assistance.

There will be repercussions due to the poor performance, really failure, of the safety systems. I imagine that unit 1 at FK Daiichi will be permanently shutdown, especially if they use seawater directly in the core.

The industry will do yet another reassessment of the preparedness for such an event.

I would certainly go if asked. I would like to be there in person to see what is actually going on, but I'd be in the way. They need personnel with direct plant operating experience with that particular plant design.

Do you think there's any way to turn this event into a drive to actually BUILD newer generation reactors, replacing older models, rather than the usual anti-nuclear hysteria?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.

Thanks Astronuc. Yes, it seems hard to get coherent and reliable info. The question is why?

Of course it’s a very 'confusing' situation with quakes and tsunamis, but personally I don’t like when things are obvious 'downsized' from the company in charge:

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031225-e.html

White smoke around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1

Today at approximately 3:36PM, a big quake occurred and there was a big
sound around the Unit 1 and white smoke.

Every amateur on the planet can watch the videos and see the explosion with own eyes...

We, and probably every Japanese are asking the same question – What is really going on??


Note: I’m not a fundamentalist "anti-nuke", that’s stupid. My opinion is that being a fundamentalist "pro-nuke" could be 'problematic' as well... (no offence). My opinion is pragmatic; we should go for the safest, environmental and most productive solution...

 

[Astronuc]

There was definitely an explosion at the plant. It's not clear from the media what building did explode. Edano is stressing that folks stop propagating rumors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110312/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake

I have no idea how information flows from the plant to officials or the media. I am too far removed from the situation.

Certainly the US NRC will lean on the suppliers of nuclear technology and the utility operators to make sure that such failures do not occur in the future. However, to make any meaningful assessment, we need accurate information about what actually happened and is happening.

As I mentioned elsewhere, it looked like the explosion occurred away from the troubled unit 1. But I'd have to find a site map to determine the orientation of units 1-4 in order to figure out which building was damaged in the explosion.

Edit: If unit 1 is the northernmost of the 4 units, then it is unit 1 where the explosion occurred.

Units 1-5 apparently have Mark I containment.
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html


Most plants of that type have metal building (shells) surrounding the reinforced concrete containment. If the outer metal structure is damaged, there is still the inner reinforced concrete containment system.

Here is a basic schematic of a BWR unit.
http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/bwrs.html

The problem is to get cooling water through the emergency cooling system to the core inside the pressure vessel.

According to this article - Japan has informed IAEA about explosion: watchdog
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1116088/1/.html

 

[nismaratwork]

Thanks Astronuc. Yes, it seems hard to get coherent and reliable info. The question is why?

Of course it’s a very 'confusing' situation with quakes and tsunamis, but personally I don’t like when things are obvious 'downsized' from the company in charge:


Every amateur on the planet can watch the videos and see the explosion with own eyes...

We, and probably every Japanese are asking the same question – What is really going on??


Note: I’m not a fundamentalist "anti-nuke", that’s stupid. My opinion is that being a fundamentalist "pro-nuke" could be 'problematic' as well... (no offence). My opinion is pragmatic; we should go for the safest, environmental and most productive solution...

I think that nuclear power is, as you say, just one of the newest tools in the arsenal of energy production. It has its ups, and its downss... anyone who says anything else is selling you a spent Uranium mine.

Still... why the reliable info gap? Fear... media echo chamber... distrust... and the reality that radiation is not something most people understand at the 'gut' level. Hearing 620mREM/hour is alarming in one sense, but in a practical sense it's not... I'd worry if we're in the REM/hour range, which is going to do some ugly things to you if you stick around.

Still, how many people in the world bother to study radiation exposure, which isotopes decay at what rate... they'll fear mystical fallout, and inhale radioactive I without a blink. People are fundamentally terrified of things that can kill them, without being seen.

 

[nismaratwork]

There was definitely an explosion at the plant. It's not clear from the media what building did explode. Edano is stressing that folks stop propagating rumors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110312/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake

I have no idea how information flows from the plant to officials or the media. I am too far removed from the situation.

One thing that isn't up for grabs: 4 people have been (at least) injured in that explosion, so I'm guessing the info-flow is not exactly smooth from on-site, to staging area, to central command post.

Oh, and there was just a 6.4 aftershock... sheesh.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... selling you a spent Uranium mine.

Watch it! I was on the edge digging up that disgusting Lame Joke!

Still... why the reliable info gap? Fear... media echo chamber... distrust...

True. No one is winning the "media war" acting like "Baghdad Bob", "Tahrir Mubarak" or "Tripoli Crazy Horse"...

People are fundamentally terrified of things that can kill them, without being seen.

Well, we actually got some of the 'stuff' from Chernobyl here on the ground in Sweden... and I can tell you it’s not fun to wonder if those delicious Mööse-meatballs are radioactive or not! ()

 

[nismaratwork]

Watch it! I was on the edge digging up that disgusting Lame Joke!



True. No one is winning the "media war" acting like "Baghdad Bob", "Tahrir Mubarak" or "Tripoli Crazy Horse"...



Well, we actually got some of the 'stuff' from Chernobyl here on the ground in Sweden... and I can tell you it’s not fun to wonder if those delicious Möös-meatballs are radioactive or not! ()

Of course they're radioactive, they would be anyway... the trick is HOW radioactive, and is it a strong alpha emitter?

Remember, Chernobyl was a meltdown and a fire... a complete disaster and failure of containment and cooling of the fuel. At worst, and please correct me if I'm wrong here Atronuc, I think this could be a 3-mile Island... at the worst. I don't see a burning core in the future of this plant, but I can understand why you'd be concerned.

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

True, and the truth is that the levels in Sweden was not lethal. And yes, there are no working alternatives, yet.

(Astronuc could you pleeeeaaaase fix that Cold Fusion Beta 1.0 NOW! )

 

[rhody]

If I may, first, thanks Astronuc for providing such honest and accurate assessment as possible given the situation. Stepping back for a moment, and on a brighter note (no, nismara, no pun intended, hehe), a few years back I watched a Frontline or PBS or 60 Minutes segment I can't remember which on the making the uranium fuel rods safe. I won't go in great detail, but the essence of the presentation was:

Make the rods in small segments with (combined with other elements, boron perhaps) if the rods heat to a critical, but not super critical state (due to the loss of cooling water), they are designed to give off "slag", that was the term used in the segment, and this would build up around the perimeter of the rod, slowing the reaction to a safe level. Lastly, these rods would be arranged in the core in such a way that if the cooling water were removed, they would not explode. I believe the they said that this technology has been available since the mid 1980's, and I am not sure if any of our plants use this fuel rod configuration or technology. I am sure their are efficiency issues as to how much heat is really produced using this type and configuration of fuel rod assemblies, but that is not the point here.

Would you care to comment on this, for the benefit of us all ?

Thanks...

Rhody...

P.S. I added overhead view of plant, see thumbnail...It appears from the thumbnail that is from 1975, it is just Fukushima I NPP, there are four more near the site, so I am not sure this is really of that much value, but I thought I would give it a shot, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_I_Nuclear_Power_Plant" . From the video it appears to occur in the third plant (separated by towers) from the right, however, if that is helpful. Wow, the wiki is up to date, and fairly accurate, kudos... to who ever is keeping it updated. I am impressed, for once...

 

[Astronuc]

Of course they're radioactive, they would be anyway... the trick is HOW radioactive, and is it a strong alpha emitter?

Remember, Chernobyl was a meltdown and a fire... a complete disaster and failure of containment and cooling of the fuel. At worst, and please correct me if I'm wrong here Atronuc, I think this could be a 3-mile Island... at the worst. I don't see a burning core in the future of this plant, but I can understand why you'd be concerned.

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

It's apparently more like TMI-2 core damage than Chernobyl.

Picture shows the loss of upper containment, the metal part of the building that covers the inner concrete containment.
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110312/capt.e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-0.jpg?x=400&y=302&q=85&sig=U_qu_ZFZI2cVI7tak6ppOw--

The explosion could have been from hydrogen which is generated from the oxidation/corrosion of the Zircaloy (Zr alloy) cladding of the fuel and the channels surrounding each assembly with the steam at high temperature. The hydrogen then escaped from the primary system into containment and the resulting explosion blew off the metal sheeting.

It would appear that Unit 1 is history.

Let's not bring cold fusion into this.

 

[Astronuc]

Make the rods in small segments with (combined with other elements, boron perhaps) if the rods heat to a critical, but not super critical state (due to the loss of cooling water), they are designed to give off "slag", that was the term used in the segment, and this would build up around the perimeter of the rod, slowing the reaction to a safe level. Lastly, these rods would be arranged in the core in such a way that if the cooling water were removed, they would not explode. I believe the they said that this technology has been available since the mid 1980's, and I am not sure if any of our plants use this fuel rod configuration or technology. I am sure their are efficiency issues as to how much heat is really produced using this type and configuration of fuel rod assemblies, but that is not the point here.

Basically one would have to make fuel elements out of carbides or graphite (carbon), and probably not use water for cooling, but rather use an inert gas. There is a program looking at Si carbide fuel cladding. The pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR) is one such concept.

Decay heat has to be removed from a reactor core following shutdown, so there needs to be a reliable cooling system for shutdown and emergencies, in addition to a reliable power generation system.

The current system at Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 failed, and we have to understand what failed and why in order to prevent future occurrences.