Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[davenn]

Another huge Earth facing Coronal Hole.
Should cause some auroral activity, approx. 8 - 10th Feb, from the highspeed stream of Solar wind coming from it.

 

[davenn]

This is referring to that huge coronal hole image in my last post


SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/08
ISSUED AT 0505UT/09 FEBRUARY 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A large equatorial coronal hole is rotating towards a geoeffective
position and will likely lead to an increase in solar wind speed
and an enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field over
10-11 Feb.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 10-11 FEBRUARY 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
10 Feb: G0-G1
11 Feb: G0-G1

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"SOLAR MAX -- IS A SECOND PEAK COMING? Last October, NOAA and NASA announced that Solar Max has arrived. Only half the sun got the memo. The majority of solar activity has been happening in just one of the sun's hemispheres--the south. The solar superstorm of May 10, 2024, for instance, was caused by a monster southern sunspot.

It makes you wonder, is the other half of Solar Max still coming? This plot of hemispheric sunspot numbers from SILSO provides some context:

Here we see all seven solar cycles of the Space Age, punctuated by current Solar Cycle 25 on the far right. The most recent cycles are double peaked, with northern sunspots (green) and southern sunspots (red) reaching their own Solar Max ~two years apart. This isn't big news. Researchers have long known that the two hemispheres of the sun are slightly out of sync. The north vs. south delay is called the "Gnevyshev gap."

This composite image of last year's sunspots shows how dominant the southern hemisphere has been:

For forecasters of the solar cycle, this raises an interesting possibility: Maybe the northern peak is still coming. Indeed, there are signs in February 2025 that the pendulum is swinging. This month's sunspots have been more evenly distributed between the two hemispheres, a sign that activity may be shifting north.

On the other hand, the northern peak might have already occured. Take another look at the first plot. There is a puny northern peak near the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. Perhaps that was it. (Indeed, that would jibe with the north-first, south-second order of recent double peaks.)

This discussion focuses attention on the north-south balance of sunspots. A northern shift in the months ahead could herald a second peak and another year or two of excellent auroras before Solar Cycle 25 finally peters out."
(see also post #396 earlier above ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A 'CIR' JUST HIT EARTH: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth on March 8th, sparking 10 hours of geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers saw auroras in Iceland, Canada and the USA as far south as Colorado and Utah.

Above: CIR auroras over Minnesota on March 8, 2025. Credit: Anna Eastman

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters have issued a watch for strong G3-class geomagnetic storms on March 23rd when a CME is expected to hit Earth. The Russell-McPherron effect could amplify the effectiveness of the impact, producing widespread equinox auroras.

Above: Equinox auroras over Luosto, Finland, on March 20th. "Thanks to the Russell-McPherron effect, the aurora showed up nicely," reports photographer Zoltán Kolláth.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

" CME ARRIVES, BUT NO STRONG STORM: Arriving almost 24 hours late, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 24th at 0038 UTC. The overdue impact did not cause a strong geomagnetic storm, as had been predicted. There is still a chance of minor G1-class storms today and tomorrow as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized wake.

A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A large hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere and it is releasing a stream of solar wind directly toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is tracking the structure, which spans much of the sun's southern hemisphere:

This is a "coronal hole"--a vast region in the sun's corona where the magnetic field has opened up, allowing solar wind to escape. It looks dark in SDO images because hot glowing gas normally contained there is missing. It's on its way to Earth.

NOAA forecasters say that a G2-class geomagnetic storm is possible when the leading edge of the solar stream reaches Earth, possibly as early as March 25th."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM (NOW): A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway on April 16th following the arrival of a "cannibal CME." If current conditions persist, auroras could become visible across Canada and northern-tier US states during the night of April 16-17.

Above: "Extreme Aurora Borealis conditions" in the Faroe Islands at midnight on April 15-16. Photo credit: Kristian E. Zachariasen

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Finally, that above announced/predicted solar storm briefly became category G4 (severe) [on April 16th] ...

Now, April 18, 2025 :

" GEOMAGNETIC GROUND CURRENTS IN NORTH AMERICA: Space weather doesn't only happen in the sky. It's in the ground, too. On April 16th, a severe geomagnetic storm caused electricity to flow through the rocks and soil of North America. Red zones in this animated map from NOAA show where voltages were greatest:

This 10-minute animation shows North American ground currents at the apex of the April 16th G4 geomagnetic storm​

Geoelectric voltages were more than 70 times normal in the Appalachian mountain range, northern Minnesota, and northwestern Canada. Texas and other western US states were relatively unscathed.

Researchers track ground currents because in extreme cases they can cause power outages like the Great Québec Blackout of March 13, 1989. This week's storm wasn't intense or long-lasting enough to bring down power grids, but NOAA's maps show where power stations are most vulnerable.

"Generally, geoelectric amplitudes are high over metamorphic rock, such as in the Appalachians and northern Minnesota," explains Jeffrey Love of the US Geological Survey (USGS). "They are usually low over sedimentary rock such as in Texas and northwest of the Appalachians."

Realtime electric field maps are published 24/7 on the NOAA website. During the next geomagnetic storm, click here to see what’s happening underfoot! "

 

[davenn]

Massive coronal hole in the Sun's southern hemisphere is now in a geo-effective location. Solar wind spewing out of the hole is likely to strike Earth between April 22 to 24th

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Massive coronal hole in the Sun's southern hemisphere is now in a geo-effective location. Solar wind spewing out of the hole is likely to strike Earth between April 22 to 24th

View attachment 360105

The solar wind from that coronal hole sparked these "tie dye" auroras over Fairbanks, Alaska:

"The twilight skies of spring bring about some of the most beautiful pink and purple colors," says photographer Sacha Layos. "We are nearly out of skies dark enough for aurora. If this was the end of the season, it was a great one!"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The Solar Wind is/was still elevated (over 500Km/sec) on April 24.

At the same time, 2 very interesting subjects posted:

" FARMERS, DID YOUR TRACTORS JUST GO CRAZY? Many modern farmers use GPS-guided tractors to plant and tend their crops. Last weekend, some of them veered off course. We've received a report of "dancing tractors" on Easter Sunday (April 20, 2025) apparently due to unusual GPS errors. The same thing happened on hundreds of farms last May during a severe geomagnetic storm. There was no geomagnetic storm on April 20, 2025, so we're looking for confirmaton. If you're a farmer or GPS operator and know of unusual disturbances in the past week, please let us know.

THE STARLINK INCIDENT IS NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT: It never made sense. On Feb. 3rd, 2022, SpaceX launched a batch of 49 Starlinks to low-Earth orbit--something they had done many times before. This time was different, though. Almost immediately, dozens of the new satellites began to fall out of the sky.

Above: A Starlink satellite falls from the sky over Puerto Rico on Feb. 7, 2022. [video]​

At the time, SpaceX offered this explanation: "Unfortunately, the satellites deployed on Thursday (Feb. 3rd) were significantly impacted by a geomagnetic storm on Friday, (Feb. 4th)."

A more accurate statement might have read "...impacted by a very minor geomagnetic storm." The satellites flew into a storm that barely registered on NOAA scales: It was a G1, the weakest possible, unlikely to cause a mass decay of satellites. Something about "The Starlink Incident" was not adding up.

Space scientists Scott McIntosh and Robert Leamon of Lynker Space, Inc., have a new and different idea: "The Terminator did it," says McIntosh.

Not to be confused with the killer robot, McIntosh's Terminator is an event on the sun that helps explain the mysterious progression of solar cycles. Four centuries after Galileo discovered sunspots, researchers still cannot accurately predict the timing and strength of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. Even "11 years" isn't real; observed cycles vary from less than 9 years to more than 14 years long.

Above: Oppositely charged bands of magnetism march toward the sun's equator where they "terminate" one another, kickstarting the next solar cycle. [more]​

McIntosh and Leamon realized that forecasters had been overlooking something. There is a moment that happens every 11 years or so when opposing magnetic fields from the sun's previous and upcoming solar cycles collide. They called this moment, which signals the death of the old cycle, "The Termination Event."

After a Termination Event, the sun roars to life–"like a hot stove where someone suddenly turns the burner on," McIntosh likes to say. Solar ultraviolet radiation abruptly jumps to a higher level, heating the upper atmosphere and dramatically increasing aerodynamic drag on satellites.

This plot supports what McIntosh and Leamon are saying:

The histogram shows the number of objects falling out of Earth orbit each year since 1975. Vertical dashed lines mark Termination Events. There's an uptick in satellite decay around the time of every Terminator, none bigger than 2022.

As SpaceX was assembling the doomed Starlinks of Group 4-7 in early 2022, they had no idea that the Terminator Event had, in fact, just happened. Unwittingly, they launched the satellites into a radically altered near-space environment. "Some of our satellite partners said it was just pea soup up there," says Leamon.

SpaceX wasn't the only company hit hard. Capella Space also struggled in 2022 to keep its constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites in orbit.

“The atmospheric density in low Earth orbit was 2 to 3 times more than expected,” wrote Capella Space's Scott Shambaugh in a paper entitled Doing Battle With the Sun. “This increase in drag threatened to prematurely de-orbit some of our spacecraft." Indeed, many did deorbit earlier than their 3-year design lifetimes.

The Terminator did it? It makes more sense than a tiny storm. "

 

[davenn]

The solar wind from that coronal hole sparked these "tie dye" auroras over Fairbanks, Alaska:

View attachment 360350​

"The twilight skies of spring bring about some of the most beautiful pink and purple colors," says photographer Sacha Layos. "We are nearly out of skies dark enough for aurora. If this was the end of the season, it was a great one!"

I saw that photo on facebook a few days ago
So very misleading
I hope you realise that is cloud being lit up by the aurora behind it ?

 

[davenn]

hey solar watchers
The return of that very large coronal hole around the southeast limb of the sun can be seen.
This last was geo-effective about 2-3 weeks ago and will be geo-effective in a few days time.
Approx the 16 - 18th May so those in higher latitudes, 40 deg north or south and higher,
keep an eye on the night time skies.

cheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

a couple of X class flares over the last 48 hours - 13 and 14th of May 2025

13th - a X1.2 just over the west limb from the large spot group that has left the face of the disk a couple
of days ago. and today the 14th a X2.7 from a new group that has just come around the east limb over
the last 24 hours.
Below is a hydrogen alpha filter image showing the very bright flare just north of the solar equator,
near the east limb.
The big loop to the upper left on the east limb is an unrelated large prominence.
There are a number of large and small dark filaments visible across the solar disk

cheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

Heads up for those at higher latitudes + or - 40 Deg....
Get ya cameras ready!!

This halo CME was generated by a M8.2 flare that was pretty much face on to Earth. It will take 24 - 28 hours to get here

SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/40
ISSUED AT 0621UT/31 MAY 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A fast, halo CME was recently observed leaving the Sun headed
for Earth. This CME is anticipated to arrive on 01-Jun at around
2100UT +/- 8 hours.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 01-03 JUNE 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
01 Jun: G3-G4, at the end of the UT day.
02 Jun: G4
03 Jun: G2-G3

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC@bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au

 

[davenn]

Another large coronal home is now geo-effective
prepare for more more aurora

 

[davenn]

That large coronal hole in my above post has become a huge one on this solar rotation
It's now geoeffective and is likely to produce some significant space weather and geomagnetic
storming with assoc. auroral activity

 

[davenn]

Yet another large coronal hole is now becoming geoeffective and is likely to produce some significant space weather and geomagnetic storming with assoc. auroral activity

 

[davenn]

That large coronal hole, in my above post #417, is still huge on this solar rotation.
With one "tendril" reaching up past the solar equator.
It's now geoeffective and is likely to produce some significant space weather and geomagnetic
storming with assoc. auroral activity
It is one of 2 large, southern Hemisphere, coronal holes that are "chasing" each other around the
the sun over the last several months.

 

[davenn]

Our old friend, the large southern hemisphere coronal hole, is coming back around again.
Be prepared for some more high latitude aurora in the coming days.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Aug. 16, 2025

" CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth on Aug. 18th, squeezing our magnetic field between fast and slow streams of solar wind. Watch for a sudden jump in solar wind speed, density, and magnetic field (especially Bz). Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras are possible if Bz turns south. (...)

DO GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AFFECT BLOOD PRESSURE? Solar activity might be doing more than sparking auroras. A new study in Communications Medicine suggests it could be nudging your blood pressure, too.

Researchers in China analyzed more than half a million blood pressure readings taken over six years in the cities of Qingdao and Weihai. They compared those measurements to the Ap index, a standard measure of geomagnetic activity. The result: Blood pressure rises and falls in rhythm with magnetic unrest.

A sample of the dataset showing the correlation between BP and Ap. See Fig 1 for more.​

Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a bimodal pattern, with peaks in spring and autumn, mirroring the seasonal ups and downs of geomagnetic activity. In years when geomagnetic activity was strong, blood pressure peaked about one month after the Ap index. During quieter years, the lag stretched to two months. The data revealed matching cycles at 12, 6, and sometimes 3 months -- present in the Ap index but absent from other environmental factors.

"We found that blood pressure and geomagnetic activity share distinct seasonal patterns," says Quanqi Shi, one of the paper's co-authors from Shandong University. "There seems to be a genuine link between the two."

Importantly, the study found no similar multi-month patterns in air temperature or PM2.5, two well-known influences on blood pressure. While temperature correlated more strongly with blood pressure in a straightforward statistical sense, its effect lacked the 6- and 3-month cycles seen in geomagnetic data.

The authors stop short of saying that geomagnetic activity causes high blood pressure. Their data cannot prove cause and effect. Still, Shi and his colleagues are exploring how such a link might work.

"One possible mechanism involves the modulation of ultra-low frequency waves, specifically Schumann resonances (pictured right), which occur within Earth's magnetosphere. The fundamental frequency of Schumann resonances is approximately 7.8 Hz, with harmonics around 14.1, 20.3, 26.4, and 32.5 Hz. These fluctuations may interfere with human brain waves such as alpha (8–12 Hz), beta (12–30 Hz), and gamma (30–100 Hz)," Shi explains.

"The brain could then modulate neuroendocrine activity (for example, by altering the secretion of hormones such as vasopressin), which can gradually influence vascular tone and fluid balance. Such physiological adjustments may take weeks to accumulate, potentially explaining the observed 1-2 month delay."

"This is just a hypothesis," he stresses. "Further targeted studies are needed to confirm and clarify its potential mechanisms."

Want to learn more? The full paper may be found here. "


B) Aug. 18, 2025

" THE 'CIR' MIGHT HAVE ARRIVED: Solar wind data suggest that a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) might have hit Earth around 1200 UTC on Aug. 18th. The impact did not immediately produce a geomagnetic storm, however, minor storms may yet develop as Earth moves deeper into the CME-like sandwich of solar wind streams. HIgh-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras on Aug. 19th. (...)

LAST CHANCE TO SEE TITAN'S SHADOW: Time is running out to witness a rare spectacle on Saturn. Since May, amateur astronomers have been spotting the shadow of Titan--Saturn's strangely Earthlike moon--as it glides across the ringed planet’s cloudtops.

"I am very happy to have recorded this very RARE event on Aug. 3rd," says Philip Smith of Manorville, NY.

The next opportunity comes on Aug. 19th, and it will be one of the final transits of the series. After the season ends in October, observers will have to wait until the 2040s for another chance.

Shadow transits like these occur only during Saturn's equinoxes, when sunlight strikes the planet’s rings and moons edge-on. Among Saturn's menagerie of 274 known satellites, Titan’s shadow stands out as immense, jet black, and visible even in modest backyard telescopes.

Gregory Shanos of Longboat Key, FL, has photographed six transits in the current cycle:

"Note how the shadow begins just above the rings in May and gets higher on the disk with each successive transit," he says. The Aug. 19th transit will be the highest yet, with a visibly elongated disk stretching toward Saturn's pole.

Every transit lasts hours. Titan’s shadow marches slowly across Saturn’s globe rather than flashing by in an instant, giving observers plenty of time to experiment with photo settings and soak in the view through the eyepiece.

The Aug. 19th event begins at 05:52 UT (01:52 am EDT) and ends about four hours later. Saturn will be high in the southern sky, shining at magnitude +0.6 in the constellation Pisces: sky map.

Enjoy the show--it won’t be back for nearly two decades. "


C) Aug. 19, 2025

" LONG-DURATION SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot 4188 exploded, producing an M1-class solar flare that lasted more than 3 hours. The long-duration event engulfed almost half of the sun's southeastern limb (movie) and probably hurled a significant CME into space. Stay tuned for updates. "

Latest Note: the Solar Wind is significantly increasing (based on last hours/minutes watch ...). See also added note (=part 3) at the end of next post (i.e. added part 3 there ...).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

It seems Solar Activity may be increasing again (these last days etc.) ...

Today, Tue Aug. 19, 2025, [and for/regarding yesterday too, (i.e. the 2nd part of this post, below ...) ...] increased, important & somewhat relatively unusual Solar Activity ...
{(+ chances for auroras is/may be increasing, even as we speak ...)}
[Take a look] :

1)
" LONG-DURATION SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot 4188 exploded, producing an M1-class solar flare that lasted more than 3 hours. The long-duration event engulfed almost half of the sun's southeastern limb (movie) and probably hurled a significant CME into space. (...)"
[Stay tuned for updates.]

2)
" A PLASMA TORNADO ON THE SUN: Yesterday, astronomers around the world witnessed a fiery twister unraveling above the sun's surface. It wasn’t a storm of wind and rain, but a plasma tornado--a column of hot gas spiraling thousands of kilometers high:

"My wife helped me capture this twister," says Maximilian-Vlad Teodorescu of Romania's Institute of Space Science, who photographed the storm despite drifting clouds and turbulent afternoon air. "The telescope's mount was not properly aligned, so she centered the subject while I recorded the data--teamwork!"

Unlike tornadoes on Earth, solar tornadoes are not caused by pressure differences in the atmosphere. Instead, they are sculpted by twisted magnetic fields that channel plasma upward at speeds reaching 300,000 kilometers per hour. For comparison, the mightiest twisters on Earth are almost a thousand times slower.

Solar tornadoes can be surprisingly stable, swirling for hours or even days. Sometimes they dissolve in a harmless puff. Other times, they erupt, hurling plasma into space as part of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In this case, the tornado was relatively calm, holding its shape without producing a major eruption.

The plasma is still spinning today {(Aug. 19)}. If you have a solar telescope, take a look! "

3) Latest Note: the Solar Wind is significantly increasing (based on last hours/minutes watch ...), as well as a new C5 flare ... [take a look] :

" Solar wind
speed: 460.2 km/sec
density: 10.85 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1107 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 0509 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1110 UT


Daily Sun: 19 Aug 25

Expand: labels | no labels

With only 4 small sunspots, the solar disk is almost blank. Credit: NASA/SDO "
(...)

Note that prior to that, today (this morning) the speed of the Solar Wind was relatively normal for some time (below ~ 380 Km/sec, or even lower [at times], and ~ yesterday too, most of the time, etc. ...), [with some peaks (and oscillating of course ...), and recently the max was ~450Km/sec – while just now it exceeded even that with 460 ... above ... etc.] ...

[Also] Watch out, possibly, for auroras tonight, and in the days ahead ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[+ See/cf. previous 2 posts – very important!]

Latest update (to the latest minute): New further significant increases in the Solar Wind (today Tue, Aug. 19, 2025), and new local & global maxima, [as well as new C2 flare(s) too (more than one, almost consecutive)] ... [take a look] :

1.
"Solar wind
speed: 517.3 km/sec
density: 5.11 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1217 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0618 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1220 UT "

2.
"Solar wind
speed: 548.0 km/sec
density: 6.38 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1221 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0623 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1225 UT "

(...)

[& just now, almost before closing, ... 557Km/sec ... etc.], ... [ and latest latest sets: a) 562.8 Km/sec , 3.26 Protons/cm³ ... b) 582.2 ..., 3.38 ... / with newest latest C2 flare at 06:49 UT ... ...]
[As said already, Auroras may be coming etc. ...]

& PS edit, before the end of this live watch ... : just reached over 600 ... etc. (602.2 Km/sec ... etc.) & another latest C2 flare was at 06:59 UT ..., and [the solar activity is] rising ...
(getting auroras more and more likely ...).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

(Still Aug. 19 [to 20, depending on local time zones] ...)

The Solar Wind speed in the meantime went close to 700Km/sec ... (cf. previous post ... / was ~ in contineous rising & many flares, almost every 5 to 10 min for some time ...).

Also:
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is underway on Aug. 19th as Earth enters a fast-moving stream of solar wind. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after local nightfall. (...)

A PLASMA TORNADO ON THE SUN: This week, astronomers around the world have been monitoring a twister unraveling above the sun's surface. It isn’t a storm of wind and rain, but a plasma tornado--a column of hot gas spiraling thousands of kilometers high:

David Wilson captured this video on Aug. 17th from his backyard observatory in Inverness, Scotland. "I inserted an image of the Earth-moon system for scale," he says. "This tornado is big enough to swallow our entire planet!"

Unlike tornadoes on Earth, which are caused by pressure differences in the atmosphere, tornadoes on the sun are sculpted by magnetic fields, which grab clouds of plasma and whip them around. Wind speeds in this monster are topping 100,000 mph. If we rated it on the Fujita scale, it would be a F300. For comparison, the deadliest tornadoes on Earth are a "mere" F5.

The plasma is still spinning today. If you have a solar telescope, take a look! "

Note that: 1) Kp (Planetary K-index [for auroras]) = 4.67 , almost right now ..., and perhaps increasing ...]

2)
" Coronal Holes: 18 Aug 25

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Aug. 19th. Credit: NASA/SDO | more data "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wed. Aug. 20, 2025

Solar Wind still elevated right now, with speed ~ e.g. 650.7 Km/sec ...

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: The action started yesterday. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms broke out on Aug. 19th when Earth entered a fast-moving stream of solar wind. The action could intensify today. NOAA forecasters expect a CME to graze Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 20th, potentially boosting storm levels to G2. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras after local nightfall. (...)

AURORA SEASON BEGINS: Around the Arctic Circle, it's been a long summer of bright nights and no auroras. Now the seasons are changing. Jónína Óskarsdóttir sends this picture from Fáskrúðsfjörður, Iceland:

"Just after 1 am on Aug. 20th, the sky filled with enormous green auroras," says Óskarsdóttir. "What a wonderful start of the new season!"

The auroras she photographed were sparked by a stream of solar wind blowing faster than 600 km/s. Earth is still inside the stream today, and the darkness will be a few minutes longer. The second day of the new season could be even better than the first!

more images: from John David McKinnon of Fort Smith/Tthebacha, Northwest Territories, Canada

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery​

... (...) "

" Coronal Holes: 20 Aug 2025

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: NASA/SDO | more data"

Note: Solar Wind increasing further ... – the speed just reached 810.1 Km/sec, just before closing this post ... (and still oscillating though).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

After a few days of relative quiet, the Solar Activity intensifies once again, as large groups of big to huge sunspots make their way to the front side.

A) Aug. 29, 2025
" MONSTER SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of large sunspots is facing Earth. They're so large, photographers are catching them in the sunrise and sunset. (Caution: always use safe solar filters!) NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares solar flares during the next 24 hours. (...)"

Especially Sunspot 4197 is about 1/3rd the size of Carrington's sunspot.

" Daily Sun: 29 Aug 2025

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot 4197 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: NASA/SDO "


B) Aug. 30
" CHANCE OF X-FLARES TODAY: Giant sunspot 4197 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. (...)

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: The sun is a tricky star. While we were watching giant sunspot 4197, a different, much smaller sunspot erupted. On Aug 30th at 20:02 UTC, sunspot 4204 produced a long duration M2.7-class solar flare:

Although the flare was not very intense, it lasted for 3 hours, long enough to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Confirmation of a possible halo CME awaits fresh data from CCOR-1 and SOHO coronagraphs. (...)"

C) Aug. 31
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for Sept. 1st and 2nd when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled toward Earth yesterday by a long duration solar flare near the center of the solar disk.

​

Above: A NASA model shows the CME striking Earth (yellow dot) during the late hours of Sept. 1st.

" Daily Sun: 31 Aug 2025

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot 4197 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: NASA/SDO "

And Latest Update (Aug31 to Sept 1 ...) :
" STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect following yesterday's Earth-directed solar flare, described below. A halo CME is expected to hit Earth during the late hours of Sept. 1st, sparking a G3-class geomagnetic storm that could persist through Sept. 2nd. During such storms, auroras may be photographed in US states as far south as Virginia, Missouri and Colorado. (...)"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

---

Tue Sept. 2, 2025

1.
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A geomagnetic storm watch is in effect on Sept. 2nd as Earth passes through the wake of a CME that struck yesterday. Category G1 (Minor) storms are likely with a chance of escalating to category G2 (Moderate) or G3 (Strong). High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. (...)

CME IMPACT SPARKS WIDESPREAD AURORAS: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 1st (2100 UTC). The impact was abrupt and strong, bringing solar winds faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph), and a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Pilot Matt Melnyk photographed the auroras from the cockpit of a Dreamliner flying over Canada's Hudson Bay

"This was the view from 37,000 feet," says Melnyk. "Unfortunately I don't think most of Canada was able to enjoy the show due to the amount of cloud cover I saw below."

In Europe, auroras were photographed as far south as France and Spain, while in the United States they descended to Virginia. Many onlookers saw the color purple. This is a sign of nitrogen, especially ionized molecular nitrogen (N2+), which produces a blue-purple light at high altitudes when it is hit by energetic particles from the sun.
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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery​

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2. (Sept. 2 & 1 ...)

CME IMPACT SPARKS 'NITROGEN AURORAS': A CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 1st, sparking widespread auroras photographed as far south as Spain in Europe and Virginia in the USA. The display was unusually rich in pinks and purples associated with nitrogen. More auroras are possible tonight as Earth moves through the CME's wake.​

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Above: The Sept. 1st aurora storm photographed from the cockpit of a Dreamliner flying 37,000 feet above Canada. Credit: Matt Melnyk​

Wed Sept 3, 2025
" THE STORM IS SUBSIDING: The Labor Day geomagnetic storm is subsiding as Earth exits the wake of a CME that struck Earth on Sept. 1st. Minor G1-class storms remain possible on Sept. 3rd as reverberations from the CME's impact gradually decay. (...)

PURPLE NITROGEN AURORAS: Earth's atmosphere is mostly nitrogen (78%), yet auroras are seldom the color of this omnipresent molecule. Usually, oxygen paints the Northern Lights with its colors--red and green. Yet during this week's geomagnetic storm, nitrogen ruled. The purple color of N2+ is everywhere in this Sept. 2nd photo from the Haukadalur hot springs in Iceland:

"The aurora display on the morning of Sept. 2nd lasted for more than 90 mintes says photographer Dieter M. Zube. "Especially the nitrogen colours came through nicely."

Similar and even more intense displays of purple were seen in Scotland, New Zealand, the UK, Quebec, Lake Superior, Ontario, and the flight deck of a Dreamliner.

What happened? We don't know. Conventional wisdom holds that nitrogen auroras appear during intense geomagnetic storms. Yet the storm on Sept 1-2, 2025, was hardly intense. It peaked at category G2, which is only moderate. Nevertheless, something in the mix of energetic protons and electrons raining down on Earth's atmosphere activated ionized molecular nitrogen and caused it to brightly glow. Consider it a beautiful mystery. (...)"

Kp index for auroras reached max of stormy 5.33 during Sept. 2nd ..., but down to quiet 1.67 (as of right now) today ...

 

[davenn]

Our old friend, the large southern hemisphere coronal hole, is coming back around again. 4th or 5th time around and is still large.
Be prepared for some more high latitude aurora in the coming days ( approx. 8 to 10 Sept.)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Fri Sept. 5, 2025] Also, another event, almost at the same time ... : ​ AURORAS POSSIBLE DURING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE: Yesterday (Th Sept. 4), a 'sigmoid' on the sun exploded, a CME directly toward Earth. Its arrival on Sept. 7th could spark auroras during this weekend's total lunar eclipse.

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Above: A sigmoid eruption on the sun on Sept. 4, 2025​

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