Probability

brownian motion

Brownian Motions and Quantifying Randomness in Physical Systems

/
1 Comment
Stochastic calculus has come a long way since Robert Brown described the motion of pollen through a microscope in 1827. It's now a key player in data science,…
Lambert W Function in Finance

The Lambert W Function in Finance

/
0 Comments
Preamble The classical mathematician practically by instinct views the continuous process as the "real" process, and the discrete process as an approximation…
probabilities virus testing

Probabilistic Factors Involved in Disease and Virus Testing

/
2 Comments
Introduction This Insight looks at the various probabilistic factors and related terminology involved in disease and virus testing.As we all know,…
Bayesian statistics part 4

Posterior Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Statistics

/
7 Comments
Confessions of a moderate Bayesian, part 4 Bayesian statistics by and for non-statisticiansRead part 1: How to Get Started with Bayesian StatisticsRead…
bayesian inference

How Bayesian Inference Works in the Context of Science

/
12 Comments
Confessions of a moderate Bayesian part 3 Read part 1: How to Get Started with Bayesian Statistics Read part 2: Frequentist Probability vs Bayesian ProbabilityBayesian…
bayesian statistics part 2

Exploring Frequentist Probability vs Bayesian Probability

/
38 Comments
Confessions of a moderate Bayesian, part 2 Read Part 1: Confessions of a moderate Bayesian, part 1Bayesian statistics by and for non-statisticianshttps://www.cafepress.com/physicsforums.13280237 Background One…
bayesian statistics

How to Get Started with Bayesian Statistics

/
13 Comments
Confessions of a moderate Bayesian, part 1 Bayesian statistics by and for non-statisticianshttps://www.cafepress.com/physicsforums.13265286 Background I…
The Sum of Geometric Series from Probability Theory

The Sum of Geometric Series from Probability Theory

/
12 Comments
Here I present a simple (but to the best of my knowledge, new) derivation of the formula for the sum of the infinite geometric series. The derivation is…
stock options math

Intuitive Black‑Scholes Options Pricing Explained Simply

/
19 Comments
Introduction Financial options — the right to purchase (call) or sell (put) stock or other assets at a fixed price on a future date — have been around…
dice

Learn About Intransitive Dice with a Twist

/
6 Comments
Intransitive dice are sets of dice that don't follow the usual rules for "is better/larger than". If A<B and B<C, then A<C. If Bob runs faster…
logicp3

Scientific Inference: Balancing Predictive Success with Falsifiability

/
9 Comments
  Bayes' Theorem: Balancing predictive success with falsifiability Despite its murky logical pedigree, confirmation is a key part of learning.…
animationwalk

Fun with Self-Avoiding Walks Simulations

/
16 Comments
This post is about some simulations I did of self-avoiding random walks. These are what they sound like with each step, the position of the walk moves…
errorbars

Plus/minus What? How to Interpret Error Bars

/
20 Comments
People sometimes find themselves staring at a number with a ± in it when a new physics result is presented. But what does it mean? This Insight aims to…
Distributions

Errors in Probability: Continuous and Discrete Distributions

/
1 Comment
1. Classifying as discrete, continuous, or mixed These statements (or equivalents) can be found in authoritative-seeming websites:X "A random variable…
natural language errors

Frequently Made Errors in Probability: Conditionals in Natural Language

/
2 Comments
  1. Turning a verbal condition into Algebra An actual thread..."A study of auto accidents has found that 40% of all fatal accidents are…