What is Moore's law: Definition and 16 Discussions

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production.
The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel (and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%. While Moore did not use empirical evidence in forecasting that the historical trend would continue, his prediction held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law."
Moore's prediction has been used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development, thus functioning to some extent as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Advancements in digital electronics, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted microprocessor prices, the increase in memory capacity (RAM and flash), the improvement of sensors, and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras, are strongly linked to Moore's law. These step changes in digital electronics have been a driving force of technological and social change, productivity, and economic growth.
Industry experts have not reached a consensus on exactly when Moore's law will cease to apply. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, below the pace predicted by Moore's law. However, as of 2018, leading semiconductor manufacturers have developed IC fabrication processes in mass production which are claimed to keep pace with Moore's law.

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  1. phinds

    Gordon Moore (Moore's Law) dead at 94

    https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/gordon-moore-obituary.html R.I.P.
  2. S

    I With chips having 2 nm transistors, are we at the end of Moore's Law?

    AIUI, this is the current level of micro-ization of computer chips. I had always thought that eventually quantum effects start to become an issue when the transistors get to within 20 atoms in distance, which it would seem that 2 nm is.
  3. G

    Is Moore's Law Still Relevant in the Age of Semiconductors and Robosourcing?

    I'm sure this gets asked a lot. CPUs and GPUs still kind of mystify me, since I do not know their science. It came to me after studying some computational linguistics that it might be possible that in the next 100 years, we might have smart-translating, smart-talking machines without a theory...
  4. Voq

    End of Moore's Law? Future of Transistors & Computing Tech

    What are indications for future development of transistors and general computing technology design with the Moore's law in mind? Are we going to redesign architecture for better efficiency and what future brings?
  5. Yashtir Gopee

    B Electron Wave Behavior in Transistors - Yashtir Gopee

    Hello All, From my A'Level knowledge of Physics, an electron is both a particle and a wave but not both at the same time. I would like to know when does an electron behave as a wave (if it does) in a transistor? Thanks Yashtir Gopee
  6. L

    Future of Moore's Law, Physics, and Nano Devices

    Hi! The other day, I read about Moore's Law. To me it seems a miracle how one could predict in 1965 that the number of transistors would double every two years. However, there has to be an end to this exponential growth due to limits of nano technology, fabrication of semiconductors...
  7. TheQuizmaster

    Applying Moore's Law to Predict Computational Simulation Times

    [Mentor note: Thread title changed to reflect problem content] I have a problem that I would like to solve with Python, but I don't know the equation for this, here it is: It has been shown that Moore's law not only applies to semiconductor density, but it also predicts the increase in...
  8. E

    Can Engineers Overcome the Impending Limitations of Moore's Law?

    The scientific limit on to how small you can make a functionally viable transistor is very fast approaching and should hit a stone wall within the next 10 years or less. How will electronic engineers and computer scientists compensate for this problem? Without some revolutionary breakthrough...
  9. D

    Interstellar travel is impossible, moore's law is finite, the heat dea

    Yeah, all of those things, multipled by five thousand, and there we have the current cosmic predicament for human beings. Is there any way in which we can do something about this? Or will Schopenhauer have the last laugh?
  10. J

    Why the laws of physics will eventually decay Moore's Law

    I was reading an article and it said that eventually, when you get silicon transistors to a certain size, they won't be able to operate anymore and will end up melting. I have always wondered the following... what is the point of trying to make transistors smaller when we can just make the...
  11. C

    Does Moore's Law Impact the Durability and Sustainability of Electronic Devices?

    Hi there, I tried to perform on a search on this forum but couldn't find a thread which answered my question. Is there any risk or known principles applicable to Moore's Law in terms of physical durability and sustainability of function? For small devices; would materials degrade faster...
  12. maverick_starstrider

    Is Moore's Law Based on Knowledge? Or is it Recursive

    Hi, here's my question. If all our technology were to suddenly disappear but all our knowledge and designs were to remain, would our progress back to where we were, in terms of chip design, follow Moore's Law? In other words, could one just make a chip with speed X provided one had the...
  13. F

    Moore's law is quickly becoming obsolete, what will they to next?

    The smallest current retail microprocessor is 32nm (nanometers) in fabrication. Electronic engineers are struggling to make transistors smaller and smaller as the laws of physics dictate that there is a limit to how small you can make a transistor. Later this year, consumer hardware...
  14. P

    What will be the next step after reaching the limit of Moore's Law?

    While there are various estimates to the year in which we will not be able to continue adding transistors to a given area on a silicon chip, the typical guess is between 2013 and 2018 [1]. Given that there will eventually be a limit to how small we can make the transistor (due to quantum...
  15. A

    When is Moore's law projected to stop ?

    And when it does, will software engineers slowly begin to lose their line of work? Would computer (hardware) engineers lose most of their jobs?
  16. S

    Moore's Law: Definition & Overview

    what is Moore's Law?