Theory of Personal Theories
Posted May13-11 at 12:36 AM by MiceAndMen
Theory of Personal Theories
Pertaining to the Physics Forums policy of "no personal theories" and why there have been so many allowed in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant disaster thread in the Nuclear Engineering forum.
I can't speak for those who run Physics Forums but perhaps there is a distinction between different kinds of theories.
The "no personal theories" policy may be aimed primarily at scientific theories of nature (e.g. Relativity, Sting Theory, Quantum Chromodynamics, Plate Tectonics), where bizzare crackpot theories (e.g. Perpetual Motion) are not tolerated (which I applaud if that is the case).
Maybe the reason why a certain amount of speculation and personal theorizing is allowed in this particular thread is that most of these theories revolve around potential sequences of events. In large accident investigations (e.g. aircraft crashes, space shuttle disasters, reactor incidents) where there are established procedures and regulations for everything from design to operation, the formal process of accident investigation usually involves going through the "fault tree" and systematically eliminating branches of that tree as new evidence is discoverd until the root cause of the accident is arrived at.
In the instant case there has been comparitavely little information officially released that would enable outside observers (us, experts and amateurs alike) to eliminate various paths through the fault tree. A lot of information that has been released is contradictory and subject to reversal soon after. In my very humble opinion, that is perhaps why many of the theories expressed so far in this thread have enjoyed loose enforcement of the "no personal theories" policy, and hopefully that approach will continue. We are not, after all, trying to invent new physics.
Pertaining to the Physics Forums policy of "no personal theories" and why there have been so many allowed in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant disaster thread in the Nuclear Engineering forum.
I can't speak for those who run Physics Forums but perhaps there is a distinction between different kinds of theories.
The "no personal theories" policy may be aimed primarily at scientific theories of nature (e.g. Relativity, Sting Theory, Quantum Chromodynamics, Plate Tectonics), where bizzare crackpot theories (e.g. Perpetual Motion) are not tolerated (which I applaud if that is the case).
Maybe the reason why a certain amount of speculation and personal theorizing is allowed in this particular thread is that most of these theories revolve around potential sequences of events. In large accident investigations (e.g. aircraft crashes, space shuttle disasters, reactor incidents) where there are established procedures and regulations for everything from design to operation, the formal process of accident investigation usually involves going through the "fault tree" and systematically eliminating branches of that tree as new evidence is discoverd until the root cause of the accident is arrived at.
In the instant case there has been comparitavely little information officially released that would enable outside observers (us, experts and amateurs alike) to eliminate various paths through the fault tree. A lot of information that has been released is contradictory and subject to reversal soon after. In my very humble opinion, that is perhaps why many of the theories expressed so far in this thread have enjoyed loose enforcement of the "no personal theories" policy, and hopefully that approach will continue. We are not, after all, trying to invent new physics.
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Comments
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I think you summed it up nicely. Yes, we stick to physics. Yes, in the Fukushima thread we allow speculation - as long as it is physically sound - as at this stage that's the best that can be done. Deciding where the line between "reasonable" and "unerasonable" speculation is is a matter of Mentor's personal opinion, that's the weak point of this approach and the source of clashes with some users. But that's unavoidable.Posted May13-11 at 03:05 AM by Borek 
